SeNNa
13.9K posts

SeNNa
@Duke_ThoTH
Exiled DukeofMK in Silson, Ex-banker turned QS & Cost Engineer. Curious mind with a keen interest in geopolitics in a multipolar world.








How a second Phase of the War in the Gulf Would Affect Emerging Economies Imagine that oil prices have already risen 45% to 50%. Fertilizer prices have increased by more than 40%, with the Gulf accounting for roughly one-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade. In addition, the region handles more than 20% of the global LNG market and a significant share (approximately 23–30%) of the world’s chemicals and plastics trade. The first phase of the conflict against Iran caused major disruptions but spared much of the critical infrastructure, both in Iran and in the other Gulf countries. If the conflict resumes with full intensity, the scenario would be severely negative on a global scale, with particularly harsh impacts on emerging economies. From an environmental standpoint, many of these economies already show a clear trend toward greater coal use to offset rising gas and oil prices. In a scenario of wider destruction of the Middle East’s industrial and energy facilities, whose reconstruction would take years, this trend could intensify significantly. Another aspect that would deteriorate dramatically is poverty and hunger. In April 2026, the IMF, World Bank, and IEA issued a joint statement describing the current shock as substantial, global, and highly asymmetric, with a far heavier burden on low-income importers, rising food inflation, job losses, and downgraded growth forecasts for emerging economies. The manufacturing sector, including processing and supply chains, is already feeling the disruption in petrochemical and naphtha supplies, forcing partial shutdowns across Asia. Small and medium-sized enterprises, which account for 60–70% of industrial employment, are in severe difficulty due to raw-material shortages, especially in Vietnam and Thailand. Even with some reshoring and friendshoring toward Latin America and the fragmentation of global supply chains into regional blocs, the world would still face strong inflationary pressure on these products. In adverse scenarios, projections indicate significant reductions in downstream Asian production, potentially in the 20-50% range in the first six months. Personally, I believe these scenarios still underestimate the full risks of a total war in the Middle East. The metals industry would also be severely affected, with a double impact: expensive energy plus shortages of petroleum coke and petrochemicals. This could drive steel and aluminum costs up by as much as 70%, with global production falling 8-15% (adverse-scenario estimate). Full article: open.substack.com/pub/global21/p…









Another New Lego-Style Soundtrack: Hail To The Tarriff Man! 🤣🎶🔥🔥



.@POTUS: The Iranian people "want to go out on the streets. They have no weapons. They have no guns. We thought the Kurds were going to give [them] weapons, but the Kurds disappointed us. The Kurds take, take, take... I’m very disappointed in the Kurds."











