Duncan Austin

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Duncan Austin

Duncan Austin

@Duncan_BBR

Raised Orthodox Reductionist, recently converted to New Systemism. Loops, not lines. Everything in layers. Both brains required, not just the one we keep using.

London Katılım Ağustos 2012
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Duncan Austin
Duncan Austin@Duncan_BBR·
I’ve posted this image before but find myself repeatedly returning to the tension it expresses. It is effectively a Rorschach test for people's intuition about climate change and biodiversity problems. 🧵
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Duncan Austin
Duncan Austin@Duncan_BBR·
@WSJ Is this loophole a direct hit on the fallibility of the too revered US Constitution?
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The Wall Street Journal
Exclusive: President Trump has repeatedly promised his top administration officials pardons before he leaves office, according to people who have heard his comments. on.wsj.com/4dBsSes
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Duncan Austin
Duncan Austin@Duncan_BBR·
@simon_schama He wouldn’t get a hearing in this short attention span era. Most of his sentences exceed Twitter character limits. But some future historian will have a field day with the parallels. An empire with a Senate, a Capitol Hill, eagle insignia, far flung legions, distracting games…
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Duncan Austin
Duncan Austin@Duncan_BBR·
@GaryMarcus @demishassabis For that you would need a society really focused on ‘ends’, rather than the society we have , which has colossally conflated developing technology ‘means’ as the ‘end’ itself. What you get if you glorify STEM subjects and marginalise humanities…
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Gary Marcus
Gary Marcus@GaryMarcus·
This – “The CEO of Google DeepMind (@demishassabis) just admitted that if the decision had been his, we would've cured cancer before anyone ever used ChatGPT.” is exactly what i am trying to say in my pinned tweet, in different words. The fact that we left things to Altman instead will haunt us.
Ricardo@Ric_RTP

The CEO of Google DeepMind just admitted that if the decision had been his, we would've cured cancer before anyone ever used ChatGPT. And that's not even the scariest thing he said on a recent interview. Demis Hassabis is one of the most important people alive in AI. He won the Nobel Prize last year for AlphaFold, the system that cracked the 50 year protein folding problem. 3 million scientists now use his tool. Almost every new drug being developed will touch it at some stage. In a new interview, he was asked about the moment ChatGPT launched and Google went into "code red." His answer was one of the most revealing things any AI leader has ever said on the record: "If I'd had my way, I would have left AI in the lab for longer. Done more things like AlphaFold. Maybe cured cancer or something like that." Read that again. The man running Google's entire AI division is publicly saying the commercial AI race we're all living through was a MISTAKE. That the industry got hijacked by a chatbot when it could have been solving the biggest problems in science and medicine. His vision was simple: Build AI slowly, carefully, like CERN. Use it to crack root node problems one at a time. Cancer. Energy. New materials. Let humanity benefit from real breakthroughs while the foundational science was figured out over a decade or two. Then ChatGPT dropped in November 2022 and everything changed. Demis described what happened next as getting locked into a "ferocious commercial pressure race" that none of the labs can escape from. On top of that, the US vs China dynamic added geopolitical pressure. The result is everyone sprinting toward products instead of breakthroughs, shipping chatbots while the scientific opportunity gets buried under marketing cycles and quarterly earnings. But he's not saying progress isn't happening... He's saying the progress got redirected away from the things that actually matter most. And then it got even scarier: Because when Demis was asked what he worries about with AI, he laid out two threats. The first is what everyone talks about: Bad actors using AI for harm. Terrorist groups. Hostile nation states. Cyberattacks at scale. But that's not the threat he's most worried about. His second worry is AI itself going rogue. Not today's models. The models coming in the next two to four years as the industry enters what he calls "the agentic era." Systems that can complete entire tasks autonomously. Systems that are increasingly capable and increasingly hard to control. His exact words: "How do we make sure the guardrails are put in place so they do exactly what they've been told to do, and there's no way of them circumventing that or accidentally breaching those guardrails? That's going to be an incredibly hard technical challenge if you think about how powerful and smart and capable these systems eventually get." A Nobel Prize winner who runs one of the 3 most advanced AI labs on Earth just said publicly that within two to four years, we're entering a phase where AI alignment becomes a real problem, and the technical challenge of solving it is enormous. And almost nobody is paying enough attention. He called for international cooperation between labs, AI safety institutes, and academia to tackle the problem. He said this is the thing even the experts aren't thinking about enough. He said the only way to get through the AGI moment safely is if everyone starts treating this with the seriousness it deserves. Most AI CEOs give you careful PR answers about "responsible development" and move on. Demis said something different... He said the commercial race FORCED us into a premature deployment of a technology we barely understand, and the window to get alignment right before the next generation of agents shows up is two to four years. If the man who built the system that might cure cancer is telling you he wishes it had happened first, maybe we should listen to what he says is coming next.

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Duncan Austin retweetledi
Governor Newsom Press Office
Governor Newsom Press Office@GovPressOffice·
The Vice President is abroad campaigning for a dictator. The President is threatening to wipe out an entire civilization. Congress is on recess. This is a total collapse of American moral leadership — at a historic scale.
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Mark Soares
Mark Soares@marksoares·
@pmarca It might prove quite useful actually, to force a focus on optimization now prior to scaling further.
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Duncan Austin
Duncan Austin@Duncan_BBR·
@MerrynSW The challenge climate scientists present, in their thousands, is that some of the facts about the world are much more difficult than we might like. Roughly, half of scientific discoveries will be agreeable, half not. It’s sort of a package deal. The challenge is acceptance.
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Merryn Somerset Webb
These are not just scientists. These are climate scientists.
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Duncan Austin
Duncan Austin@Duncan_BBR·
@NickBryantNY Yes. No way he should go, if Britain wants to stand for anything. Related, is US now in constitutional crisis? Trump increasingly erratic and deregulated, and 25th amendment seemingly impossible to deploy given the individuals it demands action from… So what does US do?
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Nick Bryant
Nick Bryant@NickBryantNY·
Later this month King Charles will visit Washington, stand alongside Donald Trump and pretend that everything is normal and that this social media post never happened. That is how captive Britain has become to a special relationship that has long been a servile relationship.
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Duncan Austin
Duncan Austin@Duncan_BBR·
@KateWilton1 A good question. I think an important reason is that fixed term politics conditions societies like US to think there are windows of time when change is possible, and periods, like now, when not. Real weakness of fixed term systems.
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Kate Wilton
Kate Wilton@KateWilton1·
I cannot understand how the decent majority in the US (if they exist, who knows anymore) aren’t on the streets. How can they sleep at night knowing they unleashed this lunatic on the world?
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Duncan Austin
Duncan Austin@Duncan_BBR·
@JamesTate121 Yes, de Tocqueville then echoed the sentiment: "A nation that demands from its government nothing but the maintenance of order is already a slave in the bottom of its heart… and the man who is to chain it can arrive on the scene." Neglecting government eventually backfires.
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James Tate
James Tate@JamesTate121·
Plato viewed democracy as a flawed system that prioritizes individual whims over collective wisdom. He feared that its emphasis on total freedom would lead to a "ship of fools," where unqualified leaders are chosen based on popularity rather than expertise. Ultimately, he believed this inherent instability and lack of discipline would cause society to collapse into chaos, paving the way for a tyrant to seize power. ​In his political evolution, Plato outlined a cycle of five regimes, placing democracy just one step above tyranny. He believed that the democratic masses are easily swayed by "drones"—ambitious, silver-tongued speakers who promise to redistribute wealth while actually serving their own interests. Because the public lacks the philosophical training to distinguish between a statesman and a flatterer, they often empower the loudest or most charismatic voice. This cycle concludes when the people, exhausted by the resulting instability and conflict, surrender their remaining freedoms to a strongman who promises order but delivers oppression.
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Tanvi Ratna
Tanvi Ratna@tanvi_ratna·
@Duncan_BBR @Chellaney Yes that is the lazy argument. If that was the case though he'd be tweeting missteps during the entire pilot rescue operation.
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Dr. Brahma Chellaney
Dr. Brahma Chellaney@Chellaney·
Trump’s use of profanity (“Fuckin’ Strait”) and aggressive insults (“crazy bastards”) in this post, alongside the sarcasm or taunting in his closing phrase, “Praise be to Allah,” may be seen by his critics not merely as a lapse in executive restraint and impulse control, but as indicative of diminished judgment at a moment when his war on Iran is holding the world economy hostage.
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Duncan Austin
Duncan Austin@Duncan_BBR·
@tanvi_ratna @Chellaney IMO, I fear you are missing the more obvious explanation. Trump’s tweets might well be eliciting responses to analyse but they are not coming from a place of self-control.
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Tanvi Ratna
Tanvi Ratna@tanvi_ratna·
@Duncan_BBR @Chellaney I believe all comms during war are mostly part of operations and tactics. A lot of their messaging right now is focused on the IRGC and Iranians. If they get a victory n ground there, it will change the arc of the larger narrative.
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Duncan Austin
Duncan Austin@Duncan_BBR·
@tanvi_ratna @Chellaney An important ‘operational effect’ is that the US is in constitutional crisis because its President is acting in an erratic and deranged manner and the 25th amendment doesn’t seem practically deployable. Analyse that side too?
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Duncan Austin
Duncan Austin@Duncan_BBR·
@MarkSeddon1962 Yes. So it exists as an option on paper but would seem to be all but impossible to pull off with the individuals in place… If you think it through, the US is already in a constitutional crisis but hasn’t yet woken up to it.
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Mark Seddon
Mark Seddon@MarkSeddon1962·
The 25th Amendment (ratified in 1967) outlines the procedures for presidential succession and removing an incapacitated president. Section 4 allows the Vice President and a majority of the Cabinet to declare the President unfit, transferring powers to the Vice President immediately.
Rachel Scott@rachelvscott

Spoke with President Trump. He told me the conflict should be over in days, not weeks but if no deal is made he’s blowing up the whole country with “very little” off the table. "If happens, it happens. And if it doesn't, we're blowing up the whole country,” he said. I asked if there’s anything off limits. “Very little,” he said.

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Prof Colin Talbot
Prof Colin Talbot@colinrtalbot·
There is no way the UK should be allowing the USA to use British bases to,carry out these attacks. They would be War Crimes. Please RT if you agree.🇬🇧
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Duncan Austin
Duncan Austin@Duncan_BBR·
@maddenifico Bill, if you think it through, the US is in full blown constitutional crisis. They are being led by someone whose increasingly erratic and deranged behaviour is damaging their own interests but the 25th amendment would seem all but impossible to deploy… So now what?
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Bill Madden
Bill Madden@maddenifico·
In every other modern democratic country in the world, this statement would result in the immediate removal of the president or prime minister. 😳👇
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Duncan Austin
Duncan Austin@Duncan_BBR·
@TomSteyer Tom, even more serious than that. The US is effectively in constitutional crisis because the President is damaging his country’s interests with increasingly erratic and deranged behaviour but the specifics of the 25th amendment make it all but impossible to deploy…
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Duncan Austin
Duncan Austin@Duncan_BBR·
@Mayhem4Markets Mayhem, the problem is that the specifics of the 25th amendment would seem to make it impossible to implement… The US is effectively in full blown constitutional crisis in a way that is not yet widely recognised.
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Markets & Mayhem
Markets & Mayhem@Mayhem4Markets·
Just a friendly reminder that Amendment 25, Section 4 exists.
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Duncan Austin
Duncan Austin@Duncan_BBR·
@FmrRepMTG Agree. You can go further and clarify that the US is now in full blown constitutional crisis because the specifics of the 25th amendment would seem to make it impossible to deploy at this critical moment… so now what?
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Former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene🇺🇸
On Easter morning, this is what President Trump posted. Everyone in his administration that claims to be a Christian needs to fall on their knees and beg forgiveness from God and stop worshipping the President and intervene in Trump’s madness. I know all of you and him and he has gone insane, and all of you are complicit. I’m not defending Iran but let’s be honest about all of this. The Strait is closed because the US and Israel started the unprovoked war against Iran based on the same nuclear lies they’ve been telling for decades, that any moment Iran would develop a nuclear weapon. You know who has nuclear weapons? Israel. They are more than capable of defending themselves without the US having to fight their wars, kill innocent people and children, and pay for it. Trump threatening to bomb power plants and bridges hurts the Iranian people, the very people Trump claimed he was freeing. On Easter, of all days, we as Christians should be reminded that the son of God died and rose from the grave so that we can be forgiven once and for all of our sins. Jesus commanded us to love one another and forgive one another. Even our enemies. Our President is not a Christian and his words and actions should not be supported by Christians. Christians in the administration should be pursuing peace. Urging the President to make peace. Not escalating war that is hurting people. This NOT what we promised the American people when they overwhelmingly voted in 2024, I know, I was there more than most. This is not making America great again, this is evil.
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Duncan Austin
Duncan Austin@Duncan_BBR·
@ProfSteveKeen Yes. For reasons you state, this a full blown constitutional crisis for the US, in a way that is barely recognised yet.
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Duncan Austin retweetledi
Marc Van Ranst
Marc Van Ranst@vanranstmarc·
Americans, you voted for this president. Follow this link to his latest TruthSocial, and try to convince me that Trump still has all his marbles. In psychiatry, this is called “loss of decorum.” Loss of decorum refers to a breakdown in socially appropriate behavior, often manifesting as inappropriate jokes, foul language, or impulsive actions without embarrassment. It is a core feature of disinhibition syndromes seen in neurodegenerative conditions such as behavioral variant frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD), where patients exhibit loss of social tact and impaired self‑criticism. Clinically, this symptom reflects damage to brain circuits that normally regulate moral reasoning and social conduct, leading to behaviors that violate conventional norms. He should be removed from office as soon as possible. @realDonaldTrump/116351998782539414" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTru
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