ECFR US

The combination of primacists, prioritisers, and restrainers that Trump selects for key foreign policy roles in his cabinet illustrates the battle for Trump's mind ahead of his inauguration in January. Read @majda_ruge's new piece for @ecfr here: ecfr.eu/article/up-clo…

"The world will not fall apart in 2026, but we will continue to muddle through an illiberal wave which is clearly not just a phase", write @markhleonard, @JyShapiro, and Anand Sundar. Read the ten foreign policy trends that will shape 2026. bit.ly/4qH5mjk

For Europe, the implications of Maduro´s capture are sobering. From Greenland to Ukraine to Taiwan, European leaders must prepare for a strategic environment in which US actions are less predictable & more unilateral. By @asliaydintasbas & @cw_herrmann ecfr.eu/article/venezu…

"Trump is destroying the postwar world that America made in favour of a Hobbesian jungle in which the strong take what they must — and he is doing so with racial imagery." My Swamp Notes with @JyShapiro on Trump's predatory boomerang. as.ft.com/r/633e5658-acf…

“In the absence of coherent international resistance, norms matter little; facts on the ground suffice.” Read @JyShapiro on how a U.S. campaign to absorb Greenland could unfold: foreignaffairs.com/united-states/…

Geo-osmosis might be on the horizon. Read the latest from @JyShapiro to see just how the US could absorb Greenland without actually "taking" it. @ecfr @ECFRStates

🎧 New emergency Podcast! In this week’s emergency podcast, @markhleonard talks with @JyShapiro and @jitorreblanca. Together, they discover why the US attacked Venezuela and captured President Maduro. What happens next? Could Greenland be next? @ECFRStates Listen to the full episode: bit.ly/4aMbVwA

Hungary’s media landscape exists in a grey zone, where journalism’s boundaries are set by the whims of regulatory power. Under Trump, America is heading in the same direction, writes @cw_herrmann. @ECFRStates Read the full text: bit.ly/45oYEGA

Trump’s self-congratulatory tone and his readiness to deploy military force to achieve goals will heighten fears of US push—with Greenland at its centre. Read @asliaydintasbas and @cw_herrmann's analysis of Maduro's capture and its implications for Europe. @ECFRStates Link: bit.ly/4qztsws

Here is our take ⬇️on the dilemmas facing Europe after Maduro’s capture. From Greenland to Ukraine to Taiwan, Europe must be ready. By myself & @cw_herrmann @ecfr ecfr.eu/article/venezu…

In November @majda_ruge wrote that Venezuela's fate may depend on which faction in the Trump administration convinces the president they can serve him up the biggest “win”. Today we know: the hawkish “primacists” who wanted regime change have prevailed. ecfr.eu/article/maga-g…

While Estonia’s is protected due to weakened Russian capabilities, stronger European defence cooperation and its own preparedness, NATO’s European members should be reassured but not complacent, argue @JyShapiro and Jennifer Kavanagh in a new report on the Russian threat in Estonia. A 🧵/1

"Europeans—while they obviously have an asymmetric dependence on the US, and they have some weaknesses—are a lot stronger than a lot of other countries, especially if they were working together... Maybe this will be a wake-up call to do that." -@JyShapiro politico.com/news/magazine/…

Speculation is swirling that the US could use military force to pursue regime change in Venezuela. The country’s fate may depend on which faction in the Trump administration convinces the president, writes @majda_ruge @ECFRStates bit.ly/43Q4K24

The West’s response to Trump’s Ukraine peace plan is caught between the 1938 Munich warning against appeasing aggression and the 1960s Vietnam lesson against overextension. The answer lies in tempering the two extremes, writes @JyShapiro. @ECFRStates ecfr.eu/article/a-tale…

A world carved into spheres of influence also brings risks, from cutthroat technological competition to various uses of long-arm jurisdiction and secondary sanctions, writes @markhleonard @ECFRAsia @ECFRStates bit.ly/4qTSGXo

🎧 This week, Mark Leonard returns to the World in 30 Minutes to unpack the latest development in US foreign policy: America’s military buildup off the coast of Venezuela @JyShapiro @ECFRStates bit.ly/3J9dsRZ

If Vance was in charge, he likely would not have agreed—as his boss did in August—to continue selling weapons to Europe for Ukraine through NATO’s new Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL), writes @majda_ruge @ECFRStates bit.ly/47TZxsQ

"A security guarantee based on snapback of sanctions, financing, and weapons may not have the grandeur of NATO’s Article 5 or the bravado of deploying European forces to Ukraine. But for Kyiv, those are illusions, not real options." - @JyShapiro & @scharap foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/snapba…

The 2028 US election remains a long way off. But it is not too early for Europeans to start preparing for the possibility of a J.D. Vance presidencym, writes @majda_ruge @ECFRStates bit.ly/47TZxsQ

If Vance was in charge, he likely would not have agreed—as his boss did in August—to continue selling weapons to Europe for Ukraine, writes @majda_ruge @ECFRStates bit.ly/47TZxsQ