Any version of this deal with Iran means the leverage is out the window. And there's another underappreciated enforcement cost: even temporary sanctions relief — whether waivers, authorizations, or licenses — while will fail to attract new oil buyers wary of residual risk, will actively degrades @USTreasury's ability to enforce violations that occur during the relief window and after their expiration for a significant period after it expires. If a 60-day authorization lapses without a deal, Treasury can't simply flip the switch back on enforcement, investigators must work through transactions that were arguably authorized or occurred in a gray period. So the leverage calculus is worse than it looks: Tehran gets the relief upfront, the Strait remains contested and risky for shippers anyway, and the U.S. walks away from a failed 60-day window with both less diplomatic leverage and a temporarily blunted enforcement posture.
