emypriba

@Samuel_07700 @fmeetsdata They take 1/5 of national coefficient (Portugal sends 5 teams to Europe)... Otherwise, they would have 0... This is some sort of safe guard to make team strength more realistic

@fmeetsdata How tf do they have nearly as many as Hoffenheim wtf

🇵🇹 Torreense enters Pot 4 in 🟠 UEL league stage with chances that they climb to Pot 3!

@Samuel_07700 @fmeetsdata 7 from playoffs

@fmeetsdata So 2 more Serie A teams and 6 from the qualification playoffs. Who gets the last place?

✅ CONFIRMED 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Liverpool and 🇵🇹 Sporting CP become the 26th and 27th team to mathematically secure a place in 2026/27 🔵 UCL league stage! 🏁 27 down ⏳ 9 to go

@fmeetsdata Do you know about case where relegated team scored most goals, like it happened now in Poland with Lechia?

Legia Warszawa 🇵🇱 was minutes away from an unbelievable comeback and qualifying for Europe after spending the majority of season in relegation battle! In the end, Katowice 🇵🇱 scored in 90+7' v Pogon and qualified from 5th place!

@SNarliza @fmeetsdata Hajduk Split is seeded, they can loose to anybody

@fmeetsdata this looks like every seeded team should have a free pass onto the next round, can't remember the last time it was so unbalanced

Only one unknown remains in 🟠 UEL Q1. If 🇲🇩 Sheriff wins the Cup 🏆, the seedings will be as shown in the visual. If 🇲🇩 Zimbru wins the Cup 🏆, 🇸🇰 Žilina will jump to the seeded side instead of Sheriff, and Zimbru will be unseeded. 👉 Full DAILY analysis of seeding positions and probabilities in qualifying rounds 2026/27 available in our 🕹️ Simulator.

@fmeetsdata There were simulations where Bournemouth recovered 7 goals difference in one round, really? I am really suprised by that, I thought this could practically never happen based on their strengths and opponents

Liverpool 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 are now 99.9% to finish Top 5 and secure 🔵 Champions League football in 2026/27!

@fmeetsdata If Villa wins and finish 5th in EPL, 6th team from EPL goes to UCL?

🚨 UPDATED (18 May) 📜 Your complete overview of 🟠 UEL rebalancing scenarios: (🔖 bookmark this post) 1⃣ 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Aston Villa win UEL and finish 4th in EPL: 🔺 🇵🇹 Sporting CP moves from UCL Q3 to league stage 🔺 🇳🇴 Bodø/Glimt, 🇬🇷 Olympiacos move from UCL Q2 to Q3 🔺 CW of 🇨🇭🇮🇱🇨🇾🇸🇪 move from UEL Q1 to Q2 2⃣ 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Aston Villa win UEL and finish 5th: 🔺 🇧🇪 St Truiden moves from UEL PO to league stage 🔺 🇦🇹 Salzburg moves from UEL Q3 to PO 🔺 CW of 🇨🇭🇮🇱🇨🇾🇸🇪 move from UEL Q1 to Q2 3⃣ 🇩🇪 Freiburg win UEL: 🔺 🇧🇦 Zrinjski moves from UECL Q2 to PO* 🔺 CW of 🇪🇪🇦🇱 move from UECL Q1 to Q2 *subject to confirmation by UEFA, there are other possibilities

@mark_jansen @fmeetsdata Club coefficient mostly

@fmeetsdata How come Feyenoord made almost twice as much as GAE, despite ranking lower in the league stage?

💰 UEFA prize money — 🇳🇱 Eredivisie clubs (2025/26): 🔵 €45.2m PSV 🔵 €43.1m Ajax 🟠 €15.2m Feyenoord 🟢 €11.2m AZ Alkmaar 🟠 €8.7m Go Ahead Eagles 🟠 €7.4m Utrecht 6 Dutch clubs have banked a combined €130.8m in UEFA prize money this season. By reaching the QF, 🇳🇱 AZ managed to earn more in UECL than what 🇳🇱 GAE and 🇳🇱 Utrecht made in UEL after going out in league stage. 💶 Detailed analysis of UEFA prize money for ALL 108 TEAMS in 🔵 UCL 🟠 UEL 🟢 UECL available on our page (in bio)

@fmeetsdata I think record number of points was 42... I don't remember when and who was this unlucky in English top league

🛑 The bar to avoid relegation in 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 EPL is set to be extremely high this season. All three teams fighting to avoid relegation are significantly above the "normal" tempo of winning points for an 18th-placed team. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 N. Forest (game in hand) = 39 pts 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Tottenham = 37 pts 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 West Ham = 36 pts Highest point tally for 18th-placed team (last 10 seasons) after 35 rounds = 30 pts Average pts for 18th-placed team (last 10 seasons) after 35 rounds = 29.6 pts Team with the most points to get relegated in last 10 seasons were Newcastle = 37 pts in 2015/16. This season we're looking at a team getting relegated with 39-40 pts. 🤯 👉 Full probabilities and scenarios for 60+ leagues available in our 🕹️ Simulator

@Jonee13 @fmeetsdata That is why they gave it 0.2%, and for me it was very interesting to see what needs to happen for this to become 100%... 1:500 is real probability IMO, and if you don't like this post you can just skip it, there are plenty "real" posts on this page...

@fmeetsdata How about you mention feasible scenarios, instead of something that would need a mixture of dark magic and russian roulette

🇵🇹 Portugal can still send not two, not three, but FOUR teams to 🔵 UCL next season. 🤏 Chances are extremely low, but here is what needs to happen: 1⃣ 🇵🇹 Braga to win 🟠 UEL with 3/3 wins 2⃣ 🇵🇹 Portugal to finish Top 2 in seasonal country ranking 🫠 For scenario 2⃣ to happen, a massive meltdown of 🇩🇪🇪🇸 teams would need to happen: ▪️Both 🇪🇸 teams would need to be eliminated in SF with two losses (0-0-4). ▪️Both 🇩🇪 teams would need to be eliminated in SF with only one draw allowed (0-1-3). ❓ How would 🇵🇹 Portugal's UEFA access list look like in that case (applied to current standings)? 1⃣🔵 UCL LS: 🇵🇹 Porto 2⃣🔵 UCL LS: 🇵🇹 Benfica 3⃣🔵 UCL Q3: 🇵🇹 Sporting CP 4⃣🔵 UCL LS: 🇵🇹 Braga 5⃣🟠 UEL LS: 🇵🇹 Famalicao 6⃣🟢 UECL Q2: 🇵🇹 Gil Vicente *assumed Sporting CP wins the Cup vs 2nd tier Torreense 👉 Full probabilities and scenarios available in our 🕹️ Simulator

@fmeetsdata Does this mean Spain has more chance to finish top 2 now?

Highest scoring semifinal match in 🔵 UCL history. Probably the best one as well.

@Jonee13 @fmeetsdata Based on schedule, Rangers are sllight favorites, but Hearts still have hogh chance to win it... Celtic is underdog right know and I think that FMD got it right with title chances, but everything can change after next round!

@fmeetsdata Fine. But Hearts, as long as they are first, deserve the respect. Instead of assuming another club will just take it from them.

As 🇬🇷 AEK moves closer to winning the title in Greece, 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Rangers move closer to be the club to enter 🔵 UCL directly via title-holder rebalancing! Although still 2nd in the league, they have the highest % to win the 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Premiership. 🎯 If all leagues ended according to current projections, this is how 🔵 UCL title-holder rebalancing would work: 🔺 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Rangers would move up from 🔵 PO to league stage 🔺 🇺🇦 Shakhtar would move up from 🔵 Q2 to PO 🔺 🇸🇰 Slovan and 🇸🇮 Celje would move up from 🔵 Q1 to Q2 🇭🇺 Ferencvaros are no longer projected to win the league, which put 🇸🇮 Celje to a position to move up from Q1 to Q2!

@fmeetsdata 2 Spanish and 2 German teams in total to battle it out for that 2nd place in this season at almost identical points, can't wait for your top 2 chances analysis

✅ CONFIRMED semifinals: 🟠 UEL: 🇵🇹 Braga v Freiburg 🇩🇪 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 N. Forest v Aston Villa 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 🟢 UECL: 🇺🇦 Shakhtar v Crystal Palace 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 🇪🇸 Rayo Vallecano v Strasbourg 🇫🇷

@ToonGambit @fmeetsdata I don't see it like that... I see this post as suggestion that English teams cannot knock out PSG from UCL, these are the games that matter the most... 5/5 in kast 2 years is surely not coincidence, they are really big problem for English teams

@fmeetsdata Conveniently left out the group stage meetings where they failed to beat Newcastle once…

🗓️ From March 2025 to April 2026, 🇫🇷 PSG were paired with 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 English teams FIVE (❗️) times in 🔵 UCL knockout stages. 🇫🇷 PSG won 5/5 times. 2024/25: ✅ R16: 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Liverpool ✅ QF: 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Aston Villa ✅ SF: 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Arsenal 2025/26: ✅ R16: 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Chelsea ✅ QF: 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Liverpool

@Tommygiri @Ildms0711 @josemorgado Even then Sinner withdraw before QF match so technically, only Alcaraz was beaten then... If you ignore this one, I think we need to go back to 2023

@Ildms0711 @josemorgado Rublev Madrid 24

ATP Ranking on Monday: 1. Sinner, 13.400 2. Alcaraz, 13.240 Alcaraz needs to win Barcelona next week to get back to world #1. If that happens: 1. Alcaraz, 13.410 2. Sinner, 13.400 Crazy.

@andremoreira7_ @fmeetsdata Yes, they need to be top 4 in EPL

@fmeetsdata Will this also happen if Aston Villa wins UEL and qualifies for UCL via PL?

🔵⚪️ Porto can significantly help their domestic 🇵🇹 rivals 🟢⚪️ Sporting CP if they win 🟠 UEL this season! 🎯 Assuming things stay as they are in 🇵🇹 Primeira Liga, Porto winning 🟠 UEL would trigger rebalancing in 🔵 UCL qualifiers: 🔺 🇵🇹 Sporting CP would move from 🔵 UCL Q3 to league stage directly!

@RossOgilvie4 @fmeetsdata Yes, even Olympiacos but it is going to be hard... There was post about that few days ago

@fmeetsdata Can Shakhtar catch Rangers this season ?

🔝 If all leagues ended today, this is how 🔵 UCL title-holder rebalancing would work: 🔺 🇷🇸 Crvena zvezda would move up from 🔵 Q2 to league stage 🔺 🇸🇰 Slovan and 🇸🇮 Celje would move up from 🔵 Q1 to Q2 *🇺🇦 Shakhtar had their league game postponed this weekend which is why they fell to 2nd place in the league. They're still projected to 🏆 win the 🇺🇦 league (92%) and take the direct ticket to 🔵 UCL. 🇭🇺 Ferencvaros also projected to 🏆 win 🇭🇺 league and move from Q1 to Q2 instead of 🇸🇮 Celje.

@PythagoraCrypto @fmeetsdata Really big posibility for Greece, they need next season matching last 3 to be able to comfortably enter top 10 and even be at 7th after 2027/28 season

@fmeetsdata Greece heading for 7th once that 22/23 2.125 coefficient has been removed

🏁 Starting positions for next year's coefficient battle (as of 20 Mar). ✔️ Top 15 seems already decided. ✔️ Top 12 seems already decided. ❓ Top 10 should be 🔥🔥🔥 once again! ❓ Can 🇧🇪 Belgium de-throne 🇵🇹 Portugal from Top 6? *we assume 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🇪🇸 will have 5 🔵 UCL teams, which is why their 26/27 bonus pts are higher than in 🇮🇹🇩🇪.

@Aljeeves @fmeetsdata Maybe if they perform well for 2 seasons and then can attack from 2028/29 season IMO

@fmeetsdata Or can Portugal de-throne France from Top 5? 👀

@fmeetsdata Poland and Greece to enter top 10? Belgium can catch Potugal, but I don't see it since big 3 usually perform well enough and sometimes they get help from 4th team like Braga, Vitoria, Santa Clara etc

@gilkzxc @fmeetsdata Yeah, I am also not the fan of this coefficient and seeding takeover from opponent, but if you get rid of this, you will have more often draws and more complex situations in qualifying rounds... Any other solution to this, maybe someone has idea?

@fmeetsdata You're talking about granted LS access. I understand. But with the fucked up no leapfrogging rule while leapfrogging happens anyway all the time. UEFA should also revise how it spreads the tickets to qualifying rounds and LS.

☠️ Positions 10, 11, 12 in country ranking are the ones suffering from the glitch in UEFA's access list. 🛑 Glitch = finishing 2nd in the league does NOT guarantee league stage football, while finishing 3rd DOES (assuming 🏆 Cup is won by a Top 2 team). This is the so-called "🇨🇭 Servette scenario". 👇 Countries potentially affected by the glitch this summer: 🇹🇷 Türkiye 🇬🇷 Greece 🇳🇴 Norway will NOT be affected by it because 3rd-placed 🇳🇴 Tromsø cannot be better off than 2nd-placed 🇳🇴 Bodø/Glimt any more due to 🏆 Cup winner scenarios. 🎯 This is why finishing 9⃣th in country ranking is important - it ✅ GUARANTEES at least 3 teams in league stages no matter what.