ETFreplay

Hey @grok, which is the best website for ETF relative strength backtesting? Short answer

@prpl8 @ETFreplay MOMO model ranks cross section of ETFs using 3 & 6 mo returns and 2 month vol. Nothing magical. Does a decent job spotting trend changes. Here's a snap from yesterday's close. Put the top X in your portfolio. Rebalance to taste. Anything below $BIL is a no-go.

Hedge funds have tripled their usage of ETFs in the past 3yrs to $300b or 9% of reported 13F assets. They use them for a variety of purposes (incl shorts) but also compete w them = frenemies. Nice look at the HFs w most ETF exposure from @JSeyff in new note on BI ETF.

@awealthofcs It may be doable but at 42 just go find another job you like and let portfolio triple in 10 years and retire at 52.

A 42-year-old small business owner has a $2 million portfolio, no debt & no dependents But he's miserable running the business Wants to know if he can retire now and pull $170k/year in withdrawals Is this feasible? From a covered call strategy? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/can-yo…

@chamath You know that high net worth clients do not take margin loans. Margin loans are for retail. High net worth people Pledge assets and borrow in a separate arrangement sidecar account. So if you are only taxing margin loans then you are just taxing regular people more.

a counter proposal to the "billionaire tax", aka the asset seizure tax, which is gutting the state of hi income tax payers, would be to tax carried interest or tax the use of margin loans. both would solve the revenue goal without driving hi value californians out of the state.

@MebFaber Doesnt matter. Just hold the right stuff in January 2026 and then the right stuff in February when we get to it.

Imagine telling someone 40 years ago that Japan would go from 40% of the global stock market to 5%. And the US would go from 30% to 64%. Where are we going over the next 40?

A 2x product and an Alpha product work well together on their own but you can add material value in volatile markets - you can add a lot in months like April 2025.

If you want to learn what Return Stacking is -- we've had the functionality for many, many years - we just called it being capital efficient. You use leveraged products to get your BETA up to 1.00 and this frees up capital to do uncorrelated alpha products. Like for more.

@DavidSacks San Francisco is in early innings of a boom

As a response to socialism, Miami will replace NYC as the finance capital and Austin will replace SF as the tech capital.

@NicoGladia the key part of this is that public BDCs dont commit to buying back shares at NAV and the private BDCs do. Loans get reworked all the time though and so cash comes in and it gets reinvested if no there is no redemption obligation. But privates r obligated to repurchase shares

Upside down view on BDC here. So basically you are telling me some investors prefer the comfort of a private vehicle that marks-to-fantasy than a vehicle reflecting market sentiment that offers transparent-ish valuation? ok cool...

Which would you rather over time: 1. Buy S&P 500 2. Buy a note with SPX cash return but with 140% participation to upside and also 15% first-loss protection on the downside. Assume a qualified account (IRA).

this covers the tech crash and the great financial crisis (2000 - 2013),,, I will post the parameters to this backtest next week as a comment below if this gets any engagement --and can also show updated performance to today.

'Marjoity Pick' just means going with the ETF with the most timeframes. Whichever lines up on the most timeframes within the chosen high-low range, that is the pick for that period. In this example, just 3mo, 4mo and 5mo are the timerames. (You then have a tiebreaker rule).

Simplifying RS models. If this gets enough engagement, will show some more examples. etfreplay.com/post/rs-compos…

@CliffordAsness Blackrock and JP Morgan have 50bps products out there. GS Premium income (GPIX) is at 29bps. Problem is that these products don't offer diversification benefits. Buffered products aren't the interesting part of structured notes market though. Other stuff is more attractive.

The article: bloomberg.com/news/articles/… And the “staunch critique”: aqr.com/Insights/Persp…

Dissapointed in my old firm. Yes we offer “staunch criticism.” The overwhelming majority of buffer funds, and like all on an expected basis, underperform the corresponding mix of equities + cash making money only for the asset manager. Our “staunch criticism” is just accurate. They should not exist and Blackrock and Goldman and others should not jump on the client-unfriendly train. These are sold not bought. Links follow.

Trading strategy equity curve for something extremely volatile such as Ethereum. This uses Total Return Difference module with the substitute function. It buy short-term momentum and sells short term negative price action.

If you just recklessly buy and buy volatile securities, you will learn your lesson in time. You will eventually lose so much money that you become scared to play.

Michael Saylor: "We sold $1.5B of stock backed by $500M of BTC. We bought back $1.5B of #Bitcoin, capturing a Billion dollar gain in the arbitrage."

@Scaramucci They will do whatever they can hedge. Thats it. They feel they can hedge it so they offer it

I don’t think people are fully understanding how huge it is that JP Morgan is now offering a bitcoin back Bond.

@EricBalchunas @TheBlock__ Not attractive at 16pct. Avoid

JPMorgan is offering institutional clients a structured Bitcoin product using $IBIT that pays off big if Bitcoin takes off in 2028 w/ some downside protections and parameters baked in. Heres how it works via @TheBlock__

@CliffordAsness @CliffordAsness at a recent conference, one of the alts strategists said if you do MPT optimization on reported priv markets results, you would basically be 100Pct privates. But nobody recommends that so the artificially low vol is being adjusted for by participants

All I know about this is everyone I’ve met from Blue Owl is really really smart. I don’t follow specific funds or have any real knowledge of their pricing today vs. what they could sell it for. I just argue it moves around a lot more than the reported #s. People are giving me “credit” for predicting problems here. I really didn’t quite do that. My volatility argument is certainly related (it can be how you get bad situations) but I had nor have any real opinion about any specific products. Not marking to market in a bull market can often mean the NAV is underpriced vs reality. Still, the volatility is higher than what’s reported.