Étienne Bracq retweetledi
🌎 Citrini Research just dropped a provocative thesis:
⚠ We’re heading toward a “2028 Global Intelligence Crisis.” ⚠
➡ The core idea?
AI is making intelligence abundant — and the global economy isn’t built for that.
Here’s the breakdown 👇
1/🧠 AI agents are removing friction everywhere.
*By 2026–27:
• Autonomous AI handles shopping, taxes, insurance, legal work
• Commerce shifts to automated optimization
• Industries built on complexity & information asymmetry collapse
2/💼 White-collar displacement accelerates.
AI replaces knowledge work → Displaced professionals move down the wage ladder → Labor supply rises → Wages compress across sectors.
*This spreads beyond tech.
3/🏢 SaaS & private credit are exposed.
Many leveraged software deals assumed perpetual growth.
But AI reduces demand for service-heavy SaaS.
*Results:
• Downgrades
• Defaults
• Risk repricing
4/🏠 Households weaken quietly.
Prime borrowers still pay mortgages…
But they’re tapping savings & credit.
Income compression → Spending slows → Debt-to-income rises.
5/ 🔁 A negative loop forms:
AI → layoffs → lower income → weaker demand → more automation → repeat.
At the same time:
Income stress → tighter credit → weaker wealth effect → slower economy.
6/ 🏛 Governments face structural strain.
Tax systems rely on labor income.
AI shifts income toward capital & compute.
Less payroll tax.
More pressure on safety nets.
⚠ The big idea:
For 200 years, human intelligence was scarce.
Now it isn’t. The report argues we’re entering a painful repricing as “intelligence premium” unwinds. Not necessarily collapse — but transition.
Agree or not, the thesis is clear:
AI isn’t just a tech cycle.
It’s a macroeconomic restructuring event.
Worth thinking about.
*Link: citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic
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