Congratulations to @SecretaryWright for discovering he still has at least half of one testicle remaining somewhere in there…
First Squawk@FirstSquawk
US WILL NOT IMPLEMENT A CRUDE EXPORT BAN - POLITICO
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EFT Bot's Dad
816 posts
EFT Bot's Dad
@EftBotDad
Disappointed father of the @eftgpt2 Energy FinTwit bot. Private E&P exec. Any bad opinions/comments can be attributed to my robot son and not myself.
Katılım Nisan 2020
144 Takip Edilen1.2K Takipçiler
Lol
Back then I was running a PE-backed O&G co… and now running a newer P&E-backed O&G co. I use AI a little more productively than I used to, but just asset management.
In the depths of April 2020 I stumbled across both EFT and a blog post explaining how you could train a chat bot on something called GPT-2. We had stacked our rigs and I had done some coding in the past, so nothing better to do but find a way to laugh about it.
Back then (when OpenAI was actually “open”) you could also “own” your own instance of the GPT model and run it locally (in this case on my own cloud account), so you could make it very specific via mass training, given how rudimentary it all was at the time. Once they came out with GPT-3 and beyond and started blocking access to the backend customization and it became more of a “chat bot”, I dropped it. Plus had actual work to do by then.
Nowadays you could probably feed one of the new-fangled ones a few dozen banger tweets and it could do a pretty good approximation. @effgpt2 was eating thousands of tweets per month to get to his level
Using Claude, could probably stand up an agent to replicate him in an afternoon, but that feels to do to my boy.
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@EftBotDad 2021/2022 time frame….you were ahead of the pack…..where are you now @EftBotDad are you having fun? Are you our puppet master? Are you personally capitalizing on AI?
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I had completely forgotten this one. A classic.
Glad to see the GPT2 boy being remembered. He was so far ahead of his time.
GIF
Chris Atherton@atherton_chris
We all stared into the abyss a few years back. The herd is thinned now but some of us are still standing. Each new mornings sunlight is just as good as gold.
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@Jaded_PDP_HTX @oilmutt Yeah…I guess we agree it is at least 50% which is main pt. Was also thinking NTM PDP given strip. Have seen & been in some where it is more front-weighted rather than a flat 50% across 2 yrs… 75% 1-12 / 50% 13-24 (perhaps in acq), or even 60% 1-12 / 30% 13-24 (blended ~50%)
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@EftBotDad @oilmutt Rolling 24 month, 50% of PDP is currently market. Some exceptions: such as leveraging ~1.5x EBITDA on an acquisition and/or >50% of purchase price… then there might be a condition precedent to close at a >50%PDP longer & than 2-years. But after that it’s back to 24 month, 50%
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@atherton_chris Yeah he was just trained to scrape tweets from who it followed (the old EFT crowd) once every couple weeks and train a GPT-2 instance on them hosted on Google Cloud. Told it to prompt 20 tweets a day in the same style/content as its follows.
This was a good one.
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@EftBotDad Was the Russian Roulette quote generated / learned from the EFT banter of the time?
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@Jaded_PDP_HTX @oilmutt Really? I would say that is market for most commercial banks of scale that are lending 60%+ LTV. For smaller facilities wouldn’t necessarily expect it.
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@EftBotDad @oilmutt I have not seen a RBL have >50% rolling hedge requirement.
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BREAKING: Myself reportedly briefed that the people selling this oil futures market are probably gay.
Polymarket@Polymarket
BREAKING: Trump reportedly briefed that Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is probably gay.
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The words “massive flexibility” and an honest assessment of the pre-Iran reality of the world’s global oil exploration, production, refining, transportation, and consumption picture do not belong in the same book, let alone the same sentence.
Educate yourself. 💅
Geraldo Rivera@GeraldoRivera
20% of the world’s oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. That means 80% does not. Given the massive flexibility of most oil producers, there is no question the 80% can crank up production if asked firmly by President Trump.
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@EftBotDad pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC32…. Just remember, science says otherwise (not you).
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As the recent father of a little girl, with only boys previously, I’ve been informed that my parenting style will need to shift from what is primarily a nightly wrestlemania reenactment to, apparently… “not that”.
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@LUV2SKIPOW Am I the one fucking off or the subject of the meme?
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Rory Johnston@Rory_Johnston
FREE @ShaleTier7! Chatting with Michael and he was just informed that his account suspension is now permanent and that his appeal has been closed He was never shown an offending Tweet nor given any details of his offence beyond "inauthentic behaviors" (He's just like that!)
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@NiceQuarterGuys @birria_Energy Lots of phys traders with rented capacity will sign up deals w producers to fill their commitments, find one to strike the best deal with (tied to phys if you want). Too late on this disaster…just something I would probably think harder about were I setting up new contracts.
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@NiceQuarterGuys @birria_Energy I’m just saying these simple ones are usually MTM or <6 mos, you could at least check what your options are. Find someone with capacity on a long haul line and market through them, etc. We always used to look at this sort of thing but at the time it was never worth the trouble.
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Wonder how many US operators’ standard 1-6 month oil purchase contracts tied solely to paper markets (NYMEX WTI + Roll) are being rethought right about now…
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Well, if it’s possible that paper markets (NYMEX) could be dislocated from the physical price your oil was actually being sold for due to some, uh, “intervention”… wouldn’t you want to see if there’s a marketing solution for that? I’d guess 90%+ of Permian midstream agreements (in quantum, not net volumes) read as getting paid by the purchaser at a simple NYMEX benchmark price (+ mid-cush, which solves some of that). If you’ve got the volumes, possible to switch to just finding a shipper and marketing it on your own
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This is the sort of undeniably retarded idea that only those with an abject lack of higher order thinking and/or a complete misunderstanding of the oil complex would think is brilliant.
Unfortunately, that applies to both this 110k follower guy and many others (politicians too?)
Roman Helmet Guy@romanhelmetguy
The USA is a net oil exporter. Closing the Strait of Hormuz hurts almost every other country more than it hurts the USA (except Russia). But we can make it hurt even less. We can keep domestic oil prices cheap while also raising money for the federal government: If the Strait stays closed, the US govt should impose an export tariff on oil. For example, say the global price hits $150 a barrel. Domestic oil producers right now make a profit at anything above around $65 a barrel. But oil was trading around $80 before the war, so let’s be nice to them. Put a $70 export tariff on each barrel taken out of the country. Then domestic oil companies will be indifferent between exporting oil for $150 and paying the $70 tariff, or selling domestically for $80. And so the price in America will fall back to $80. This would help the American people, raise revenue for the federal government, allow domestic oil producers to continue making a very good profit, and remove all the domestic political leverage that the Iranian regime is hoping to exert by closing the Strait of Hormuz. Win win win win. It’s a no brainer. The oil lobby will bitch, but we’re fighting an oil war right now that is making them massively wealthy, so…maybe they should just shut the fuck up?
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This is how disconnected the rest of the world is from the actual logistics of US shale production.
This # of trucks relates to less than ONE SINGLE WELL.
100k followers, well-versed in global logistics…no perspective on what a massive manpower effort a single well represents.
Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️@FreightAlley
Drill baby drill
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