EgoScale

The obvious end state for this path is Chinese body, Chinese brain. I'm actually pretty excited to see what happens this year, it will probably result in some really amazing stuff being built and it seems a lot more useful than a bunch of Chinese Cluelys. Just going by the demos at CES this year compared to last year, the bar is moving up so rapidly and there are so many little details getting figured out. But yea, if you have any degree of intellectual honesty you can tell that many of the best robotics software demos are coming from China, particularly for full-body control, for the same reason that the best LLMs are from America - modern AI is mostly an infrastructure problem, not a methodological problem. I am quite worried that the future of robotics in the US looks a lot like the current electric car situation, and we're stuck with expensive, worse, "premium-only" options because no one actually really wants to do the hard, boring infrastructure work. I don't have much faith that America will be able to put together any kind of coherent industrial policy to do something different when the people involved are so obviously self-motivated and interested in regulatory capture for the status quo. The 200+ humanoid startups in China aren't trying to become the next Foxconn and I have no idea why so many smart people in Silicon Valley convinced themselves that this was the case before even talking to any of them. A good example was the Astribot - Pi "partnership". I met the Astribot CEO a few months before that got announced and it was obvious that they were an extremely ambitious full-stack team that had no intention of being the Cursor to Pi's Anthropic unless there was some exclusivity on the table. The brain companies don't have much leverage. Just look at the margins they're paying for hardware. I'm pretty sure American VCs have helped incubate dozens of Chinese companies. It all just feels kind of depressing, watching from the outside. Shenzhen really seems like Detroit in its heyday and I'm kind of jealous of everyone that has decided to move there in the last year or two. Anyway, all this is to say that I'm a Figure stan now and I hope they don't blow up. And Sunday and Bot Co of course. There are several former K-Scale people at Bot Co now and I am very excited for their launch.

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