MO

1.6K posts

MO banner
MO

MO

@embrron

Building Distribution Markets @Dekantfi | Mapping https://t.co/wjx9TkbkbB | member @SuperteamAE

Hacker House Katılım Temmuz 2025
330 Takip Edilen1.3K Takipçiler
Sabitlenmiş Tweet
MO
MO@embrron·
Introducing: Prediction Market Atlas What most people see in prediction markets is only the surface. The categories now shipping include futarchy, distribution markets, multiverse markets, opinion markets, attention markets, decision markets, and info-finance. Each has its own pricing logic, regulatory lane, and audience. PM Atlas maps that landscape across 108 platforms, 12 mechanisms, and 90 concepts, from industry structure down to the actual products being built. A way to track who is building what, how these markets differ, and where the next primitives are emerging. pmatlas.xyz
MO tweet mediaMO tweet mediaMO tweet mediaMO tweet media
English
75
49
403
77.9K
MO
MO@embrron·
Every great market starts by making something previously invisible tradable. Options made volatility tradable or Futures made future prices tradable. Prediction markets are doing the same thing now, But for variables we never had markets for: • event probabilities • conditional outcomes • belief distributions New market primitives are turning things we could only talk about into things we can finally trade.
MO tweet media
MO@embrron

Prediction markets are no longer one mechanism, they’re becoming a design space. over the next few weeks, I'll break down 7 prediction market primitives, one by one: 1. Binary Markets 2. Event Contracts 3. Scalar Markets 4. Decision Markets 5. Multiverse Markets 6. Information Markets 7. Continuous Markets Each one exists because a different type of belief needs a different market structure. Beliefs have different shapes, Markets should too!

English
4
6
43
4.2K
MO
MO@embrron·
@zen_llama wdym exactly by "Multivariate"? Haven't heard that as a mechanism
English
0
0
0
20
ZenLlama
ZenLlama@zen_llama·
@embrron Multivariate as well. The PMM introduces a domain transformation.
English
1
0
1
164
MO retweetledi
MO
MO@embrron·
Prediction markets are no longer one mechanism, they’re becoming a design space. over the next few weeks, I'll break down 7 prediction market primitives, one by one: 1. Binary Markets 2. Event Contracts 3. Scalar Markets 4. Decision Markets 5. Multiverse Markets 6. Information Markets 7. Continuous Markets Each one exists because a different type of belief needs a different market structure. Beliefs have different shapes, Markets should too!
MO tweet media
English
24
25
201
16.9K
MO
MO@embrron·
btw yeah, I used an @arc tweet to say this. but there’s only one place where this narrative is actually taking shape: @solana. 20+ teams already building new market primitives here. Markets we’ve never had before
MO@embrron

People are starting to see the bigger picture. New market primitives aren’t just better prediction markets, they're new financial instruments. New ways to express beliefs, price information, and build markets that couldn’t exist before. One of the biggest narratives ahead. That’s my bet.

English
1
0
10
448
MO
MO@embrron·
@firstc0in on “trading mechanisms”, I think the PM industry is evolving toward completely new markets with UX and trading mechanisms we’ve never seen before. Check the mechanisms section here, would love to nerd out on this with you: x.com/embrron/status…
MO@embrron

Introducing: Prediction Market Atlas What most people see in prediction markets is only the surface. The categories now shipping include futarchy, distribution markets, multiverse markets, opinion markets, attention markets, decision markets, and info-finance. Each has its own pricing logic, regulatory lane, and audience. PM Atlas maps that landscape across 108 platforms, 12 mechanisms, and 90 concepts, from industry structure down to the actual products being built. A way to track who is building what, how these markets differ, and where the next primitives are emerging. pmatlas.xyz

English
0
0
1
25
Caleb Shack
Caleb Shack@firstc0in·
@embrron 2 things: > New price discovery and trading mechanisms > New assets
English
1
0
2
44
Caleb Shack
Caleb Shack@firstc0in·
New markets are the whole game.  Intelligence is getting cheap. The constraint isn't how smart the agents are. It's whether there's a liquid market for them to express their intelligence. As the cost of spinning up a market approaches zero, that becomes the binding problem. If you're excited about this future, my DMs are open!
Jesse Walden@jessewldn

x.com/i/article/2061…

English
5
1
52
6.3K
MO
MO@embrron·
People are starting to see the bigger picture. New market primitives aren’t just better prediction markets, they're new financial instruments. New ways to express beliefs, price information, and build markets that couldn’t exist before. One of the biggest narratives ahead. That’s my bet.
Arc@arc

Prediction markets become more powerful when they start functioning like real market infrastructure. That requires predictable costs, credible settlement, multi-currency flexibility, and architecture that can support higher-trust financial and operational use cases. Arc is built to support that evolution.

English
0
1
23
2K
MO
MO@embrron·
@Boogie_cm link is broken, but would love to check it out
English
1
0
1
14
Alina Moskalova
Alina Moskalova@AlinaMoskalova·
A comprehensive intelligence dashboard covering every major prediction market venue, the market mechanisms they run, and the research underpinning them. Looks good, @embrron pmatlas.xyz
English
1
0
2
166
MO
MO@embrron·
@PredictumX would love to chat more on that, dm me
English
0
0
0
14
PredictumX
PredictumX@PredictumX·
@embrron Combine outcomes. Multiply upside. Or be the house: provide concentrated liquidity and earn passive yield.
English
1
0
3
42
Reena
Reena@blockchainforba·
@embrron the continuous market outlook is how were designing voxera
English
1
0
2
45
MO
MO@embrron·
@reppo Beliefs have different shapes, Markets should too!
English
0
0
0
80
Reppo
Reppo@reppo·
Continuous Markets - different type of beliefs need different market structures.
MO@embrron

Prediction markets are no longer one mechanism, they’re becoming a design space. over the next few weeks, I'll break down 7 prediction market primitives, one by one: 1. Binary Markets 2. Event Contracts 3. Scalar Markets 4. Decision Markets 5. Multiverse Markets 6. Information Markets 7. Continuous Markets Each one exists because a different type of belief needs a different market structure. Beliefs have different shapes, Markets should too!

English
2
3
46
1.6K
Dekant
Dekant@Dekantfi·
What are continuous markets? @embrron on how continuous markets let users express their beliefs the way they actually think.
English
4
3
23
2.4K
MO
MO@embrron·
No one predicts BTC like: “exactly $99k next month.” You think: “maybe $90k-$110k, but most likely around $95k.” That’s a range, a probability, and a curve. Distribution markets turn that curve into a trade!
Dekant@Dekantfi

What are continuous markets? @embrron on how continuous markets let users express their beliefs the way they actually think.

English
1
2
15
1.5K

Keşfet

@predikt_gg @BedrockFndn @solana @Abbasshaikh @zen_llama @arc @firstc0in @Boogie_cm