Emmy Probasco

CSET's @Lauren_A_Kahn on @NPR: "The US is clearly internalizing some of the lessons that we've seen [from the war in Ukraine], that being the first real drone war, the first real AI war that we've seen." Listen to the full interview: npr.org/2026/03/15/nx-…

Can the military prevent Claude, OpenAI, or another company from going full Terminator? Emelia Probasco, an expert on artificial intelligence in warfare, takes a less apocalyptic view. nymag.com/intelligencer/…

“The PLA is fostering an ecosystem for rapid AI development that connects novel research with frontline operations,” write @SamBresnick, @EmmyProbasco, and @colemcfaul. “The United States, meanwhile, has declared the AI company Anthropic a supply chain risk.” foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas-a…

My old French teacher would be so disappointed in me, but I still found it neat to speak with France TV2 (in English).

Update from CENTCOM Commander on Operation Epic Fury:

I am happy with how this podcast discussion with @ezraklein turned out, a happy medium between policy analysis and profound agi-pilledness. Ezra is a spectacular interviewer; I gained respect for him after this discussion, and I already respected him.

“Leaders across academia, industry, and government should prepare for a future of widespread AI-enabled deception that threatens civilians and militaries alike,” write @SamBresnick, @EmmyProbasco, and @colemcfaul. foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas-a…

Ensuring U.S. national security requires bolstering partnerships with the world’s leading experts on AI technology, write @SamBresnick, @EmmyProbasco, and @colemcfaul. “This is, at least in part, why the failure of negotiations with Anthropic is so concerning.” fam.ag/40FMOF9

Read @SamBresnick, @EmmyProbasco, and @colemcfaul on China’s efforts to integrate artificial intelligence into its military—and how the United States should respond: foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas-a…

“The Chinese military is increasingly applying AI to diminish U.S. advantages in space and at sea,” write @SamBresnick, @EmmyProbasco, and @colemcfaul. How can the United States maintain its technological edge? foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas-a…

1/ In @ForeignAffairs, @EmmyProbasco , @colemcfaul, and I examine the Chinese military’s AI ambitions. BLUF: The PLA is making progress on “intelligentization,” its third phase of military modernization. Thread below:

“Beijing believes that whichever military better develops and adopts AI and other emerging technologies will gain a major advantage in future wars,” write @SamBresnick, @EmmyProbasco, and @colemcfaul. foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas-a…

The news interest in this story makes clear that Americans care deeply about the autonomous weapons issue and the surveillance issue. It's a debate that is bigger than DOD or Anthropic, and one in which Congress should play a role.

I do not think Congress ought to pass a law on autonomous weapons that would unduly constrain the operations of the DOD, BUT it is reasonable to consider strengthening the process oversight in law, beyond what we currently have.

There is a narrow but important gap between the “all lawful use” stipulation and “no autonomous weapons.” On the one hand, you could interpret these two positions as being essentially aligned. But it is more complicated than that. 🧵