Emphyrio

Someone asked me in an AMA for the worst review I've ever received. I still think on how to do better.

$QCOM is asymmetrical because it's being priced to fail. The demand for CPUs is exploding and $ARM $INTC $AMD are the biggest winners. But remember in February comparing $AAOI --> $LITE $COHR? It was an underdog in photonics and then the market acknowledged it had the assets to be a credible 3rd place and deserved a higher MC. $QCOM could be similar in that they have a credible set of assets to getting in on a different supercycle: CPUs. This is intriguing because it trades at 12x forward PE. $ARM is 110x. $INTC is 125x. $AMD is 40x. In 2021 Qualcomm bought Nuvia for $1.4B, the ex-Apple silicon team that designed the M-series cores which are the gold standard. At Computex 2025 they announced NVLink Fusion with Nvidia which means Qualcomm CPUs could slot into AI factories the same way Xeon does today. On the Q3 FY25 call, Amon disclosed "advanced discussions with a leading hyperscaler" and guided data center revenue starting fiscal 2028. Three products are coming: a CPU, accelerators, and a full rack. The $2.4B Alphawave acquisition provides the high-speed connectivity IP to ship it. Also in January 2025 they hired Sailesh Kottapalli, former chief architect of Intel Xeon. Wednesday's earnings is the swing factor. Name the hyperscaler or guide data center revenue separately and there's some juice. At 12x forward, zero data center upside is priced in so there is clear potential for multiple expansion.

A situation that has happened to me more times than I care to admit. Arriving in a city for a speaking engagement after a 7 hour flight. Me “Checking in for Rob Henderson” Hotel staff “Okay just need an ID and credit card” Me “Sure. There should be a credit card on file there.” Hotel staff “Ah yes I see there is. But there’s no note here authorizing us to charge this card.” Me “You have the card there on file. Can we just use that one?” Hotel staff “Unfortunately we require a note confirming we can authorize the charge.” Me “I have the email of the person who represents the organization paying for the hotel, where they specify that the room should be covered. Can I show you this email?” Hotel staff “Sure! But we would still require them to complete and submit a credit card authorization form.” Me “You have the card there on file. Can you charge it? I know there’s no note but the person literally gave you the credit card information, why do you need a note too...sorry, can I speak with the manager (my inner karen awakens)? Hotel staff “There’s no manager on duty.” Me “Okay (karen dies on the vine).” Smash cut to me pulling out my own credit card to cover the stay. Why do we put credit cards on file for hotels then? What’s the point of this? Either use the card on file or don’t. But why is it we can book a flight on an app, get through the airport security with a face scan, and then you arrive at a hotel and they need a notarized blood oath signed in triplicate? For most people I get that this is trivial who cares. But for anyone whose company or a third party covers travel, hotel check-in remains the final frontier. Why hasn’t this caught up with the rest of modern life?