@InvestorDenis I’m very long but this is not exactly correct materials can still come from china but as you say it needs to be less then 50% of the cost at least for 2026
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alpha investor
110 posts
alpha investor
@ErezIdan
MBA | Investor | Navigating global markets with strategic insight.
Israel Katılım Nisan 2018
222 Takip Edilen75 Takipçiler
This week $FLNC reaffirmed continued availability of US domestic content product.
What this means is $FLNC has a consistent supply chain that meets the 2026 requirements for tax credits:
• Zero materials can come from specific countries like China and Russia
• more than 50% of the battery's value must come from US labor and materials
So if a utility company buys from $FLNC, it’ll get those tax credits and pay 30% to 50% less.
In fact, complying with these requirements is easy for $FLNC because it also sells software like Nispera and Mosaic.
It can include the cost of developing the software in the total project cost and easily exceed the 50% threshold for batteries.
Long $FLNC.
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@MarcRavioli @DastanyLFC I don’t think the tam is the issue here,
I can be wrong but it’s all about the feoc clearance in my view
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@ErezIdan @DastanyLFC Or in other words, people are perhaps doing some revisions to the TAM of BESS
I have zero evidence to prove this. I just know for myself it’s in consideration
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@DastanyLFC There's a chance the business gets some unlocks. I'm holding.
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@TheRonnieVShow @Chrisinho175 Did you buy? I thought you’re wait for your bull trigger
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@Chrisinho175 And for selling at $30+ and now buying back at sub $16 haha 💪😂
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Disruptors…
$HOOD 📉→ brokers
$SOFI 🏦→ banks
$OSCR ⚕️→ health insurance
$ZETA 📺→ mar-tech
$NBIS 🎚️→ datacenters
$MBLY 🚘 → av & robotics
$AMPX 🔋→ battery tech
$PLTR 🧠→ enterprise
$FLNC ⚡️→ electrical grid
$TEM 🔬→ research
$LMND 🚗→ car Insurance
$DOCN ☁️→ cloud infra
$RKLB 🚀→ space
$ASTS 📡→ internet
$ONDS 🛸→ drones & defense
Who'd I Miss?👇
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@MarcRavioli @DastanyLFC What do you mean by killing the TAM?
All of the other points are valid but not new to the last month
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@ErezIdan @DastanyLFC Data centers in space killing the TAM?
Impatience with upwards earnings/revenue revisions?
Too slow at having enough domestic cell/battery supply?
Those are all of my concerns as I baghold the 77% of the stock I still have (trimmed 23% between $21 and $29)
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$FLNC
blog.fluenceenergy.com/more-power-les…
Working already in one hyperscaler data center is a huge validation for FLNC thesis
@Kaizen_Investor @RJCcapital @hiteshkar
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@luismanuecx @Kaizen_Investor @FinnStockinger The problem is that Julian could not give any details about what route it will be and when we would get the clearance that it is solved and how. All he said in the call is that he is working with these guys for years so he trust their word that they would fix it themselves.
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@luismanuecx @Kaizen_Investor @FinnStockinger Envision is currently considered a foreign entity of concern as it is owned by china. Flnc was supposed to buy their factory and solved this regulatory problem but in the call they said both parties decided not to go that route and find another unknown route for compliance.
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Sold 2 of my positions today as I want to be more concentrated.
The first one is a company where I don’t like the trajectory they are going. It can still be a good investment but I just don’t like the trajectory any more.
The other one is a company where the industry is changing rapidly due to AI. Don’t know exactly where the industry is heading so chose to sell.
Will share them soon, any guesses?
KaizenInvestor@Kaizen_Investor
Kaizen Portfolio update of March. My portfolio was up 6.9% this month. My top 4 positions outperformed the rest of my porftolio. $PL reported great Q4 results and are up 45% this month. $PLTR is up 7% and $RKLB 2%. $AMPX also reported excellent results and is surfing on a growing drone wave, they are up 45% this month. I initiated 4 new positions: $OUST, $POET, $MRVL and SK Hynix. I'm up 15% on Marvell, the other positions are flat. I also bought some extra shares of $HIMS. I think they are ideally positioned to catch the GLP-1 wave and I'm happy to keep DCA'ing into the company. On the other end of the spectrum $TMDX dropped 25% this month. $HOOD, $FLNC, and $IREN dropped around 7%. I'll see what tomorrow brings as Trump keeps controlling the markets. I'm at 20% cash at the moment, will be looking to get this down to 10% this month. I'm also looking to get more concentration in my portfolio. I'm lookin gto add 1 new position and will probably sell 5 to 6 positions. This shold bring my total holdings down from 16 to 11. Will keep you posted.
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@Kaizen_Investor @FinnStockinger Know how the whole envision situation is going to be solve but they just trust envision to get it done which also sounded bad to me and sounded probably a lot worse to the street analysts that heard the call.
Good news is today announcement seems to have a positive impact
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@Kaizen_Investor @FinnStockinger Even assuming margins are improving we need the whole envision and feoc to be resolve some how. Don’t forget that when the last report numbers came out we were around 26 but if you listened to the call while looking at the chart the real dip happen when they mentioned they don’t
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@Kaizen_Investor @FinnStockinger Interesting I was sure that would be the other way around. The whole problem with flnc lays with envision it’s nothing about the numbers. They have to get this sorted and then the stock would be back in 20’s in no time. The problem is I don’t know if they know how to solve it…
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@Kaizen_Investor @FinnStockinger You sold fluence after being so bullish? What broke your thesis in the last two weeks?
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@FinnStockinger 1 is correct, don’t know what I will do with the other one.
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$FLNC My top battery play for mid to long term hold.
Fluence Energy is a key player in battery storage! 🔋
Earnings growth
The company expects strong earnings growth next year, with EPS estimated to climb from $0.08 to $0.40 per share, a 400% increase.
With a robust backlog ($4.9 billion), significant U.S. manufacturing plans, and favorable regulations like FEOC (Foreign Entity of Concern) coming in 2026, Fluence is positioned to capitalize on the growing grid scale storage market.
FYI American Battery Technology Company ($ABAT) focuses on the upstream part of the battery supply chain, while $FLNC focuses on downstream part.
Risks
-Company's ability to execute its U.S. manufacturing ramp up smoothly and efficiently address supply chain challenges.
-It can be volatile as it depends on policy shifts.
-TSLA could be big competition in grid scale battery storage market.
Despite recent revenue shortfalls tied to US manufacturing ramp up delays, the long term story is compelling.
Technical analysis:
This has lot of potential to pull a $MP and $BE kind of move. Don't sleep on this name.
I have seen many setups like this before, This has a pretty good chance to rip higher.
We broke the IPOAWAP today with nice volume.
I will adding more thesis to this play as we go, if you have any interesting take on this, let me know. I will be accumulating shares in this name. Main move comes with break of the trendline.
Good luck!
$ABAT $EOSE $LAC $AMPX $QS
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Which stock under $10 billion market cap do you think is undervalued right now?
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Some of you know that I launched a hedge fund several months ago (early November).
We run a long/short strategy, focused on owning the 20-40 growth stocks that we believe have the most upside over the next 2-3 years... this means they need to have great fundamentals, strong management teams, compelling valuations, and multiple catalysts that we can identify and track accordingly.
It's been a rough few months for many growth investors (we also took some pain)... thankfully we were averaging down into our core positions but we've still seen some red months and it has not been enjoyable. I'm not a fan of losing money.
Stepping back... I've never had more conviction in my process or my portfolio than I do right now... especially with some of my favorite stocks down 20-40% from their September/October/November highs despite strong Q4 earnings reports, strong CY2026 guidance and extremely compelling valuations.
With that said, here are our top 10 positions in alphabetical order:
$APP
$CPNG
$CRDO
$HIMS
$HROW
$SKHYNIX
$IREN
$NBIS
$RDDT
$TMDX
I believe all of these stocks are trading at meaningfully higher prices in 2-3 years which remains my focus for generating outsized long-term returns.
Enjoy the rest of your day 😊
NFA. DYOR.
** @FirstWaveFund owns all of the stocks mentioned in this post.
Jonah Lupton@JonahLupton
I continue to think $HROW is one of the most undervalued / mispriced growth stocks in the entire market. $HROW is down -33% in the past couple weeks, now trading at 15x NTM ev/ebitda... despite management saying CY2026 revenues will be up +32% YoY (midpoint of guidance) and ebitda will be up +45% YoY (midpoint of guidance). Management said multiple times in the shareholder letter and the earnings call that this guidance is conservative. If you are interested in $HROW or already have a position, I strongly encourage you to listen to the CEO from yesterday's presentation at the Leerink Healthcare conference... event.summitcast.com/view/mT9poctHD… During this presentation, Mark (founder & CEO) said their current guidance is "base case" for CY2026. I used to tell my subs that I'm always looking for breadcrumbs... Mark dropped some big ones during this presentation. I'm listening to it for the second time right now. Not only is $HROW expecting approval next month on a new indication, but he said they're presenting data in July for Izeeho that he thinks can 4x their market share. Then he said G-Melt could be in market within the next 18-24 months and has the potential to become their biggest revenue product ever. CEO also said they are doubling the size of their sales teams over the next 3-6 months because the ROI of having better coverage in more markets is just too obvious. Mark continues to say they can get to $250M in quarterly revenues by CY2027 Q4, which implies approx $1B in CY2028 revenues. Right now $HROW is expecting CY2026 ebitda margins of 26%, if anyone knows biopharma companies and margins... as they scale revenues from here, those margins will get much better. It's very possible $HROW has 35-40% ebitda margins in CY2028 at which point they could be generating $350-400M of ebitda... right now the current enterprise value is $1.5B... so it's possible that $HROW is currently trading at just 4x CY2028 ev/ebitda not including all the cash they'll generate over the next few years. I honestly think $HROW has the potential to be a 5-bagger over the next 3 years. NFA. DYOR. *We own $HROW at @FirstWaveFund; as of this morning it's now a top 8 position.
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I know everyone is focused on the current macro environment, but…
Any interesting sub-$5B market cap stocks worth researching?
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Honourable mentions:
$TE
$RR
$JMIA
$OSS
Anything else?
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Higher risk, higher reward..
Here are the top 8 best <$10B market cap stocks in the market right now🧵
1. $ONDS Ondas Holdings
-36% from all-time highs
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@pas139 Because I can't predict the future and I'm confident in those going up long term so worse case I see a 30% drawdown then 100% pump. Best case they just pump 100% from here. I'm hedged for downside, hoping for upside.
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$SPY - 2022 fractal already still playing out perfectly. Even a bounce to 670 still on the table before a retrace. Bear markets are intentionally difficult to short for this reason.
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