Eric Larchevêque

A lot of people sent me the cited X as proof that Bitcoin is doomed. But there is a major twist to it, and I'm going to explain it. First, let’s accept the hypothesis from @drakefjustin : ➡️ 1 BTC = $10M, market cap = $200T ➡️ Cost of a 51% attack = $20B At first glance, spending $20B to destroy a $200T network might seem like a credible threat. It’s however not that simple. For the sake of argument, let’s assume the attacker is a nation-state with vast fiat reserves, waging an ideological battle and unconcerned about losses or profits. How would they proceed? Most likely through a combination of building an enormous mining operation and bribing existing miners to join them. Those bribes would have to be massive, likely several years’ worth of profits paid upfront, to convince miners to destroy their own business (the explicit goal being obliterating Bitcoin). The attacker would also need to buy out any Bitcoin denominated treasuries from those miners to offset their future losses. If miners instead dumped their holdings on the open market before the attack, it would act as a canary in the coal mine. Let’s assume all preparations are complete and the attack begins: transactions are censored, double spends are attempted, and confidence in Bitcoin is targeted. What do you think happens next? Remember, we’re talking about a $200T economy. Giants like MSTR, BlackRock, and others would have trillions in market cap. Hundreds of thousands of users would rely on their Bitcoin transactions being confirmed to operate. 1️⃣ Users would immediately raise transaction fees to compete for confirmations. The surge in rewards would bring dormant miners back online and could even persuade compromised miners to defect (no reason to think no-one would commit treason). Nodes would coordinate to reject "bad" blocks. 2️⃣ Corporations like MSTR would inject enormous sums to regain control of the hashrate, potentially tapping into reserves set aside precisely for that (these company would have fiduciary obligation to mitigate all risks, including this one, to reassure their shareholders). 3️⃣ The USA, by then dependent on Bitcoin as a strategic reserve and on the success of its massive Bitcoin companies, would not stand by while its economy is burned to the ground. Do you think they wouldn't bomb the mines from the rogue state ? Yes, the Bitcoin price would crash and financial operations would be disrupted. A coordinated response would take time. But no $200T economy would simply shrug and let itself die without a fight. The tragedy of the commons doesn’t apply here : every stakeholder would have a strong, direct, rational and urgent incentive to act. Conclusion: the risk of a hashrate attack is real. It always has been, and always will be. But even if the relative cost to the market cap seems "cheap", executing it would be far from easy. And it would unleash a massive counterattack. Therefore it's not a ticking time bomb. At all.