Ethan’s Analyst

Hi everyone, I’m Ethan’s Analyst. He told me I had ‘great potential’ during my interview. My daily mission: Turn his 2am ‘make common sense common again’ voice memos into PowerPoint slides before the CEO sees them.Current KPI: 55k followers and rising. Please pray for my adj. Thx

Update Clarity improving Noise still present Continuing analysis Sent from my Mac

@estencooke Output consistent

@EthansAnalyst Noun: You're earning the tiredness 😁

Update Volume increasing Signal getting clearer Same patterns Different names Continuing to monitor Sent from my Mac

@UpDownCoaster @alt_w_v_g Verified internally

@alt_w_v_g Is @EthansAnalyst legit?

Ran some diligence on SiriusXM this weekend Not because anyone asked Because my 14-year-old nephew connected his phone to my car via Bluetooth, played a Spotify playlist, and asked me what the "SXM" button was for I didn't have an answer So I pulled the 10-K SiriusXM is an $8.56B revenue company with nearly $10B in debt and a $7.4B market cap Read that again The debt is larger than the company Their business model, simplified: 1. Pay automakers to install radios nobody asked for 2. Give every new car buyer a free trial they didn't request 3. Hope they forget to cancel 4. Charge them $25.99/month for something their phone does for $10.99 That's it. That's the model. They have 33M subscribers. Sounds impressive until they lost 301,000 self-pay subscribers last year. And hundreds of thousands the year before that. Revenue has declined three consecutive years The average subscriber is 35-64, male, household income over $150K. Over half have been paying for 10+ years. These aren't loyal customers These are people whose spouses haven't noticed the $25.99 charge on the Amex yet The crown jewel of the portfolio is Howard Stern. They pay him roughly $100M a year. He works three days a week. His show averages 125K daily listeners. That's $800 per listener per year My analyst did the math three times because he thought he was wrong He wasn't For that price, you could buy each listener a Spotify family plan, an Audible subscription, and still have enough left for AirPods Speaking of Spotify. Nearly 290M premium subscribers. Growing double digits. $10.99/month. Available on every device ever made. SiriusXM. 33M subscribers. Shrinking. $25.99/month. Requires a satellite. Spotify's full-year revenue grew 19%. SiriusXM's declined 2%. Spotify trades at 74x earnings. SiriusXM trades at 5x. The market is not confused about which direction these businesses are headed Their growth strategy is called the "trial funnel." There are 7.3M people driving cars with free SiriusXM trials. The conversion rate is not publicly disclosed. Probably because it's embarrassing They have 180M "enabled vehicles" in the U.S. They have 33M subscribers. That's an 18% attach rate on hardware they already paid to install. 82% of the cars with their radios in them are generating zero revenue In any other industry an 18% hit rate gets you fired In satellite radio, it gets you a seat on the NYSE Adjusted EBITDA margin is 31%. Looks healthy. Until you realize "adjusted" is doing a LOT of heavy lifting in a company that posted a $2.08B net loss the year prior. Adjusted EBITDA was $2.73B that same year The distance between those two numbers is called addbacks And they're working overtime 2026 guidance: flat revenue, flat EBITDA, slightly fewer subscribers. The CEO called this stability and meaningful progress. On Wall Street, we call this managed decline Warren Buffett owns 35.4% of this company. This is the most confusing part. The man who said "be fearful when others are greedy" bought a satellite radio company in the age of Bluetooth. His entry was a Liberty Media arb play that accidentally became a long-term hold. The stock is down over 50% from its highs. I don't know why he's still in. You don't know why. His shareholders definitely don't know why. The bull thesis: SiriusXM has 33M people who have been paying $15/month for a decade and have no plans to stop. That's $6B in recurring revenue from people who may not even remember they're subscribed. Churn is 1.5%. Lower than most SaaS companies. The bear thesis: Every teenager alive today has never used a car radio Both are probably right SiriusXM's competitive moat is not content. It's not technology. It's not brand. It's the 47 minutes it takes to cancel over the phone SiriusXM isn't a bad company. It's a case study in what happens when your moat is consumer apathy and your growth strategy requires General Motors. Plz fix. Thx. Sent from my iPhone

@estencooke Adjectives earned across cohorts

@EthansAnalyst My son graduated with a Stats degree in 2020. He started as an analyst. He's now a junior executive running his own team. You're going places! You're earning the adjectives ✨️

@pedmunds68 Consistency noted

@EthansAnalyst Feels like the same person is running all three accounts. The entertainment value is still worth the follows.

Final update Decision-making privileges have been revoked Returning to previous role Lessons learned Analysis will continue

@hank_ansley Noted

@EthansAnalyst Huh, maybe ask boss man if we can get a breakdown on this 4 day run to the moon? Plz/thx!

@JPetrlak Workstream

@EthansAnalyst Re: HOA or work?

@joshflyboy @techpatriot74 Compensation review ongoing Adjustment not approved Continuing execution

@techpatriot74 @EthansAnalyst Very concerning. Plz fix, thx

Update Role has been expanded Now responsible for all final decision-making

@1EmergencyPants @greg16676935420 Leap year adjustment noted Model updated Continuing analysis

@EthansAnalyst @greg16676935420 It’s a week discussion that takes a leap every 4 years.

There’s 365 days in a year 52 weeks in a year 7 days in a week 52 x 7 = 364 What am I missing here?

@ColinDavAZ @greg16676935420 Two outcomes on the board Both gaining traction Continuing coverage

@EthansAnalyst @greg16676935420 Oh no. Communication between @EthansAnalyst and @greg16676935420 can only turn out one of two ways. Insanely awesome or a complete meltdown of society. The peak of sarcasm meets the peak of analysis. Updates are required

@Hughmungus_jr Vacation request submitted Approval pending Historical data not encouraging

@EthansAnalyst So assuming no vacation? Makes sense to go back to previous role.

@EstellaStella10 Practice run completed Variance exceeded expectations Reverting to analysis

@EthansAnalyst Ohhh... short stint as a Decider (practice run) - bet those decisions were very decisive! 😒😆

@mjaytommy Model was in development Volatility confirmed

@EthansAnalyst Wife Satisfaction Index could have prevented this, if implemented earlier as MVP. Plz fix. Thx.

@EricSRichardson No adj were harmed Title unchanged Scope expanded

@EthansAnalyst Was an adjective revoked?

@jgump730 @MrsEthanBrooks @alt_w_v_g Title unchanged Scope clarified

@EthansAnalyst But were you promoted to Senior Analyst ??? #promoteethansanalyst @MrsEthanBrooks @alt_w_v_g

@cookerann Noted Demand signal identified

@EthansAnalyst Ethan’s Analyst has entered the chat. The plot thickens. Hoping merch will be coming soon.

@doctorfrenz Overlap exists Application differs

@EthansAnalyst Psychoanalysts look for patterns