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The biggest threat to Ruto’s second term is a united opposition.
There is propaganda that Ruto will simply rig his way back, but rigging is not as easy as people make it sound. Rigging requires serious intelligence, serious coordination, serious logistics and a disciplined political machine, and Kenya Kwanza may be loud, arrogant and aggressive, but that does not mean they have the capacity to quietly manage every moving part of an election without exposing themselves to a bigger crisis.
The bigger danger for Ruto is the possibility of a last minute national mood swing where Kenyans wake up close to the election and decide in large numbers that Ruto must go. That is the counterattack I am talking about. Not chaos, not violence and not online excitement, but millions of ordinary Kenyans making a quiet decision in their homes, villages, towns, churches, markets, workplaces and polling stations that enough is enough. When people are divided, confused or hopeless, power can manipulate them, but when many Kenyans arrive at the same conclusion at the same time, the system starts shaking.
Personally, my worry is bigger than Ruto. It is bigger than Kalonzo and bigger than whoever else imagines they can inherit power. Whether the next president is Ruto, Kalonzo, Kuku or anyone else, things will still be bad if the poisoned system remains untouched. The country is not well. People are broke, businesses are closing, families that were stable two or three years ago are now struggling, rent is choking people, food is expensive, school fees is a nightmare, jobs are scarce and hope itself has become expensive.
This is where the opposition is also failing because they are talking politics but they are not seriously addressing the issues affecting Kenyans. Kenyans do not just need a replacement for Ruto. They need a serious plan for the economy, taxation, public debt, corruption, police brutality, unemployment, healthcare, education and the cost of living. Without that, removing one group and replacing it with another will only change the names of the people eating while the country continues bleeding.
As I have always said, only Kenyans themselves will take back this country, rectify it and set serious systems. Not politicians, not tribal kingpins and not fake reformers who become silent immediately they get appointments. Keen people know that time must come, and it may come slowly then suddenly.
No matter who is at the top, Kenyans will eventually realise that the system itself is poisoned, and once that realisation becomes national, it will be very bad for anyone who takes over. Kenyans will not just be asking for a new president. They will be demanding a country that finally works.
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