Evan Fryberger ☁️

@hailhavocwx @MatthewCappucci No, if the warmer gets warmer in the cold air gets warmer, there's still a gradient. It's always gonna be a gradient. Just gonna be further up to the north.

@EvanFor2020 @MatthewCappucci By that logic, if the whole globe has warmed, wouldn't the air in the warm air mass be warmer but then the air in the cooler air mass would also be warmer by the same degree so that there actually is no net change in the temperature gradient along the front? Both airmasses warmed

People are obviously confused by this. More warmth and moisture the further north a warm front can travel meaning technically every storm since like the 2000's that rides that warm front would have been further north meaning the entire storm was caused by climate change

@ElijahWx37695 Pearl clutching is holding onto old ways of thinking when presented with new evidence

@EvanFor2020 What do you mean by pearl clutching

Pearl clutching will only hold climate science back. Every single person that has commented has just thrown insults instead of a rebuttal which sucks. I was hoping for open discussion.

@EthanB86419472 The answer is no it does not the warm front gets pulled with it more north just like I've been saying

@EthanB86419472 When you move the baroclinicity north more on average does the warm front just get left behind?

@EthanB86419472 Heres a greta paper! Enhanced poleward propagation of storms under climate change - Israeli Research Community Portal cris.iucc.ac.il/en/publication….

@EvanFor2020 Open discussion is good: has there been a study specifically centered on changing warm frontal characteristics (and associated tornado frequency) attributed to climate change? I will read it if so.

@CRyanMauk @PappenheimWx Thank you for also bringing up cassation!

I don’t think there’s enough good longitudinal data complied to be able to explicitly say the warming trends are directly correlated with increases or decreases of severe weather events, in terms of observed meteorological data as collected by radiosondes and the forecast there of. Forecast meteorology has only been a working thing since the late 1800s when the telegraph made communicating surface observations a thing. When taking into consideration global climate patterns, El Niño/El Niñas, etc, all relatively new theories,…one can hypothesize and even “prove” a theory mathematically, but unless it is observed in nature…. I think global warming is a thing as it is defined, but I think there is much more nuance to it when it comes to the cassation argument.

@CRyanMauk @PappenheimWx I think your spot on but the warm front is literally the only storm dynamic that is directly influenced by thermodynamic inbalence. If that inbalance is well in the favor of more heat and moisture. I think my statement is more of a logical deduction then an assumption

@MatthewCappucci If those two storms happened 100 years apart in different global warming regimens

@MatthewCappucci I understnd those are valid perimeters to monitor but my arguement is thermal dynamics directly influenced by global warming given two of the exact storms (ie jet maxima srh, helicity, lower shear, trough positioning ect.) would end up with different warm front positions

@MatthewCappucci I appreciate that! I was honestly waiting on your opinion on this :) Its wrong to state that I was talking about the expanding warmer months. Although its related to what Im talking about I was trying to start a discussion about warm fronts end postions and global warming

@EvanFor2020 Unsure what you're trying to assert. I was trying to be helpful and steer you in the right direction rather than stomping on you. :)

@MatthewCappucci Seasons* (not environments) and how with more warming ie more moisture, the warm front will always end up more north in comparision to if you had the same mechanics but less global warming say 100 years ago.

@MatthewCappucci This is incorrect. Global warming doesnt just turn off or on when we exit or enter cooler or warmer environments. Its there all the time. The air is on average warmer by 1.5 c then compared to pre industrial aveage. Thats all the time. Im specifically takings about warm fronts

@FredCun93117348 If it starts further north where does the final position of that warm front end up? I dont understand what we are debating at this point. It sounds like you agree with me. It would travel more north because more heat means more airmass expanison. Simple thermal dynamics

@EvanFor2020 travel more. That's where I debate this.

@methylmike @ChasingWConnor One, my post doesnt claim what you claim Im stating, Im am talking about storms that interact with warm fronts. If a storm interacts with a warm front today and produces a tornado, its a high likelihood that same storm without the 1.5 c would have been north of the warm front

@EvanFor2020 @ChasingWConnor My dude, The claim that weather wouldnt exist if climate change wasnt happening is obviously wrong Climate is always changing, this weather will always exist Climate is downstream of weather.

@Grayson_wx Sorry, hope you recover soon!

@EvanFor2020 you just ruined by whole entire month btw

Technically, every storm that rides a warm front and produces a tornado is caused by climate change as it wouldn't have been there without the additional warming likely would've been more sound

@NatlWxFcst Global warming is the combination of CO2 and methane and other lesser known gasses being released animals land masses and recently humans that contribute to the proven fact that these gasses raise temperatures and those temperature changes have impacts on the entire globe

@EvanFor2020 what is global warming for you, don't give me the definition just give me your view of it?

@FredCun93117348 If your warm front is further north it plays a huge role on where storms latch on to it and produce tornadoes I feel your missing the point here. I know theres other dynamics to a storm but the warm fronts final north position is something that you can 100% link to climate change

@EvanFor2020 More to work with, yes. But that won't matter if all other dynamics, also not very reliant on temperature, don't come together. However, is there a threshold or global mean value that would be so high, that it would affect their behaviour more dramatically? That I cannot say.

@NatlWxFcst Not deleting it and I understand its hard to get caught up in that and forget the every important role amospheric thermodynamics plays. But global warming plays a huge role in detrerming where todays warm fronts set up!

What is a Jet Stream, High and Low Pressure system, Moisture, Instability, Shear, Helicity? What is a cold front and a warm front, What are Clouds? How does heat rise north? Let's discuss the basics and it will give you all your answers. Your post did not help you in any way to sound smart, instead I came on here as a non-meteorologist to tell you to delete this but it's too late.

@TaraWil68513482 Working hard over here! I will not let the thoughts of the old get in the way of the science of the new!

Watching my favorite of all time meteorologist youtuber win every argument on x is the top of my day ☺️👍🏼🌩️ #weather #stormchasers @EvanFor2020

@FredCun93117348 Therefor meaning a storm that latches on to todays warm front has a very high likelyhood if not a near 100% chance to have been an elevated hailer or just a shower with the same atmospheric mechanics30 years ago

@FredCun93117348 Its an average, but my point still stands every storm has more heat and moisture to work with and since the warm front is a small thin line measuring this exact thing it ends up further north in a warmer world in comparision to the same mechanics in a colder one