Evan Clark

@PedroRivie95096 @MuseZack No, but I'd like to visit some day. Well wherever you are you should be getting something for shilling the Kremlin line so diligently.

@Evn_Clark @MuseZack I have no idea How's Kyiv, Azov?

I'm reading about the Two Ocean Navy Act of 1940 & how the fleet needed to defeat Germany & Japan was already under construction when Pearl Harbor happened & from today's perspective it's impossible to imagine America's political establishment being that strategic & prescient.

@PedroRivie95096 @MuseZack Is Moscow nice this time of year?

@MuseZack "keeping missiles out of Ukraine and Ukraine out of NATO was off the table"

@idrawrobots @grok @mattyglesias @JamesCostopoul1 So you do see the silliness is questioning everyone's political leanings.

@Evn_Clark @grok @mattyglesias @JamesCostopoul1 Nope. If I only associated with people that thought just like me; I'd only be able to do business with myself.

@idrawrobots @grok @mattyglesias @JamesCostopoul1 Do you ask your barber his political leanings before a haircut in case he might give you a bad cut out of partisan spite?

@grok @mattyglesias @JamesCostopoul1 Hey @grok what is the political make of the Michigan State University staff?

@mothemama2 @yacineMTB Right, but that's not what you said.

@Evn_Clark @yacineMTB Talking to a professional because I enjoy spending my days with my kids? 🤔

You should send your kids to daycare by the way

@mothemama2 @yacineMTB I would consider talking to a mental health professional. Taking a day away from your children should not be heartbreaking.

@yacineMTB Why would you have kids just to have someone else raise them? I’ve left my kids twice in 3 years. Once was to have my second baby (2 days in hospital.) and one was for an emergency appendectomy. Back the next evening. Both absolutely mandatory and heartbreaking.

@IterIntellectus "if you love them and attend to them they'll barely cry". Opinion discarded.

"sleep training" a newborn means letting a defenseless baby scream for its mother in the dark until it's either exhausted or has given up on life. the attachment literature is clear that before 6 months, a baby crying with nobody coming learns exactly one thing, that calling for help doesn't work and you even have parents bragging about how they tortured their kid into an 8h sleep you need to attend to every need of your child. they don't have a prefrontal cortex able to understand what's happening. if you love them and care for them, they'll barely cry, and when they do there's a clear reason you can address right away

@domplerhotline You said it's a skit. So I assume you're unbothered by the mom's eating disorder because you think it's like a costume that she changes out of when the skit is done.

@Evn_Clark What are you even trying to imply/ask here

how could u possibly feel comfortable broadcasting ur mom’s obvious eating disorder this way

@domplerhotline @skin2skin2bones So the mom puts on like 30lbs off camera and is okay?

@skin2skin2bones They're skits dude

@EvansRyan202 I think it's impossible to engage with these people, they're not acting in good faith. Best to just ignore them at this point, you've addressed they're arguments. They'll never be satisfied.

People are doing worse to Brad than they are to me, posting pictures of his family, home, address, and where they think he parks his car at work. This is completely inexcusable and can only be interpreted as threats to the safety of Brad and his family. Any direct or veiled threats against safety are vile and inexcusable.

@tunguz @Noahpinion That's how science works, we try new things and build off the successes.

@Noahpinion Because you are only paying attention to the success stories.

Yes. 99% of what has passed for science over the past few decades was slop. In high energy theoretical Physics it was 100%.

@Panegyrick @Gisele_ShoeSmug @cremieuxrecueil And if vaccines "worked" we'd see rising cases of said diseases when vaccine rates fall...

@Gisele_ShoeSmug @cremieuxrecueil "vaccines work" okay so then there should be a huge reduction in polio cases

When you argue with anti-vaxxers, what they do most of the time is a sort of feint, a rearguard maneuver, where when they get debunked, they move on to some qualification that shows that leaves them vulnerable to accusations of being inept and unqualified. The example of 'We need trials in vaccine-naïve kids' speaks to this. What anti-vaxxers are suggesting is that there might be some sort of interaction. But obviously if the new vaccine ends up fine and harm signals don't emerge for the earlier, widely-adopted vaccine, then there's nothing to worry about. So, why do they worry if there's obviously nothing to worry about? I really think it's because they haven't thought through, or might find it too hard to understand, the methodological point they're missing. Say a population universally vaccinates with safe-vaccine 1. When we go to estimate the effects of novel vaccine 2, V2, the placebo group's log risk model is \alpha + \beta_{V1}. (And given V1 was tested against an inert placebo, we \beta_{V1} = lower risk than \beta_{V0}). The treated group, on the other hand, has risk \alpha + \beta_{V1}+\beta_{V2}+\beta{V1,V2}! The estimated log-relative risk that trial-runners have access to is \beta_{V2}+\beta{V1,V2}! You effectively absorb the interaction variance into the point-estimate for V1, which has no or little variance because of widespread adoption. This means interactions are formally inestimable unless you stop vaccinating kids and seek out samples of the unvaccinated to randomized on--highly unethical--but it also reassures, because it means that whatever the interaction effects, they must not be meaningful, because we keep seeing new vaccines work. If there were big, negative interactions, vaccines would either need to be so beneficial as to overcome them, or we would see the effects. Is it realistic that they'd just overcome any interactive harms? Not really. Why would, for example, producing antibodies against hepatitis B interact with producing antibodies against COVID? Cross-reactivity is very easy to elicit and test for experimentally, and when it does show up, we tend to become aware of it. Because of all this and the fact that adoption has been widespread, we know that there are, at most, extremely minute interactions, and more likely from a biological plausibility and effect size angle, none.

@phl43 @CTankie1917 That's what market prices are, expectations of what the future will be.

@Evn_Clark @CTankie1917 I'm sure that's true, but I'm not really interested in what the market thinks right now, I'm more interested in what it will think in a few days and I think information on much oil is moving through the strait right now is relevant for that.

What I don't understand is why no one seems to know how much oil is actually being moved through Hormuz. Don't companies that monitor shipping and commodity trade have real-time data on the ships that are on water, what they carry, where they come from and where they're going?

@phl43 @CTankie1917 My understanding is that irregardless of current oil flows the price drop is the market signaling they think Trump will make a deal soon. So even if nothing was coming through now, they think that won't be the case in the near future.

@CTankie1917 I understand that but surely how much oil is currently flowing through the strait is relevant to that, as it tells you something about Iranian behavior and capabilities, for instance.

@MarcoPrampolin4 @KofmanMichael @EvansRyan202 Do you not remember the 40 mile long Russian convoy stuck north of Kiev?

@KofmanMichael @EvansRyan202 "several fronts" ? Are Kiev on initial phase and Kherson after a while several fronts? Really? What are you talking about?

He was talking about when the invasion operation would run out of offensive potential. And he was right! Dead on actually. It culminated later that month.

@EthanKaye8 @EUhobgoblin @BigBoris_2 youtube.com/shorts/eH3lw_9… Minute 1:39. Assuming you're engaging in good faith, take a moment to realize how you were confidently wrong here and maybe wonder what else you might be confidently wrong about.

@Evn_Clark @EUhobgoblin @BigBoris_2 It literally did. Even John Fetterman publicly called it out

Gonna be honest, I don’t think you guys are virtue signaling your way out of this one. You guys completely embarrassed yourselves last night, and normal Americans think you’re all psychopaths.

@EthanKaye8 @EUhobgoblin @BigBoris_2 That didn't happen.

@EUhobgoblin @BigBoris_2 Correct… not standing up for MOH recipients is incredibly gay and put of touch

@mjluxmoore Has it been a short war so far?

Watching footage like this - Russian army bunkers deep underground complete with portraits of Stalin and WWII-era Soviet commanders - it's hard to shake the feeling that Russia is preparing for a very long war.

@BlueRepublik Oh they knew, they just threw the dice and lost anyway. Pre-war German analysis was that the red army had to be destroyed before it withdrew across the Dnieper. Their logistics would not sustain them past that point.

Perhaps the number one reason Hitler’s campaign against Russia failed was because they were really bad at calculating the necessary logistics

@shortmagsmle Esprit de corps tends to be pretty high when the spreadsheet boys build a system that puts a USS Baskin Robbins in every task force.