ExtraMeatPizza

“haha I’m up so much YTD I could just close the book and be done for the year” you won’t though. we all know you won’t. nobody ever does. stop pretending and get your ass back to the pnl mines.

I believe that there is more interest in Photonics again $LITE $COHR $SIVE $AAOI $NOK etc. So my goal leading into earnings is to give a quick pulse check on where my favorite companies are at > What each business will look like over the next four quarters > Which products are coming online and changing the revenue mix > How quickly revenue and margins should grow > What next-quarter guidance already implies > How much execution is embedded in the current market cap And so on I haven't been posting too much on X lately but I will use this as a series to get a bit more active on here Hopefully it will bring some value! Either by seeing opportunity and building conviction or By getting a clearer picture that you still think they are overvalued Both could be valuable!

Risk/reward seems attractive again. Lots of cheap stocks with durable competitive advantages that are going to crush numbers for the next 6-12 quarters. Time will tell!

Heard in the Nebius Inflect hallways: Elon charged Google 2x market for compute. Google still took it. No spare capacity until 2H27. 90-day segments. Zero leverage. AI compute isn’t a commodity anon

Today, we launched GPU compute forward curves derived from our prediction market prices. Forward curves are now available on Nvidia B200. H200, and A100 chips. Forward curves track implied future prices. They are how mature commodity markets form expectations, allocate capital, and manage risk. Energy, interest rates/SOFR, FX, metals, and agricultural markets all rely on market-implied forward prices. Despite becoming one of the key inputs in the global economy, compute has lacked that market-derived infrastructure. Compute right now is where oil was before NYMEX — traded only via OTC deals, just like oil used to trade OTC between producers and refiners. As compute becomes as fundamental to the economy as energy, the industry will need a similar derivative market to promote efficient price discovery. Prediction markets are uniquely suited to this problem. Compute is not one uniform commodity and spans many chips, grades, tenors, locations, and contract structures. A live prediction market can aggregate those dispersed views into transparent prices that reflect market expectations for different maturities. The opportunity is big. Hyperscalers are spending over $700B on compute this year and the market is expected to grow to $7-10T by 2030. If this market behaves like traditional commodity markets, a liquid derivative market could be 10-20x bigger than the underlying spot market. Compute is still not uniform enough, but this is a step towards standardization as forward curves will help us see the rise and fall of different model prices and how they correlate. The forward curve is a first step. Up next: futures and perps.