FRACTAL DZ

1 Year Into The Bear Market It took me some time to convince myself that we are in a bear market, and that we have been in it for about 1 year. November 2024 was the thrill phase, and $ TRUMP was the euphoria, the blow-off top that none of us wanted to accept. Let me explain. It starts with this moronic quote: “history doesn’t repeat itself but it rhymes.” That stupid sentence has done more damage to market reading than almost anything else. It makes us completely default to pattern recognition without thinking how the pattern can be altered. This lazy way of predicting is how I misread the market. More specifically, that is how I misread 2 data points. Data point I We thought memecoins were the spark that would ignite alt season, when in fact memecoins were the alt season. We thought things were just getting started. Some talked about alt season, and some very brave ones even talked about a banana zone. We were wrong. You see, every prior cycle had a bubble inside the bubble driven by a new meta. That new meta created a new market, and that market introduced friction. Bridges, tooling, complexity, risk. That friction mattered because it split liquidity into 2 distinct groups. The first group is lazy liquidity. Capital that prefers simplicity, depth, and low effort. It stays parked in liquid tokens where friction is minimal. The second group is explorer liquidity. Capital that hunts returns aggressively and is willing to move through complexity to find them. That split is what makes token seasons possible. Explorer liquidity finds outsized gains inside the new meta, then rotates back into liquid tokens where lazy liquidity sits. That rotation creates momentum. That momentum becomes what people label alt season. This cycle never had that split. There was no new meta that demanded exploration. With no friction, both liquidity groups stayed in the same arena from the start. Lazy liquidity could participate without effort. Explorer liquidity could still make money by being early. The market skipped the middle step entirely, so we went straight to token season. Our mistake was thinking there was ever such a thing as alt season. There isn’t. There is only BTC → new meta → token season. If you skip the new meta, you go straight to token season, and that’s it. That was your cycle. Memecoins replaced what people expected to be alt season. November 2024 marked peak PnL for most traders. $ TRUMP was the blow-off top. Data point II BTC is no longer governed by internal crypto market psychology. It is governed by institutional and macro psychology. That operates on a different timeline and responds to different incentives. Since $ TRUMP, many interpreted BTC’s resilience as proof that the market was still in a chop or a bull market pullback. The reasoning was anchored to prior cycles where bear markets required BTC to dump by extreme percentages. That framework is outdated. BTC has effectively decoupled from the internal crypto cycle. Accept that, and the rest becomes straightforward. The bear market began after $ TRUMP, regardless of BTC’s behavior. Look beyond BTC. Since January 2025, the market has moved through anxiety, denial, and panic. If you have been profitable, you can see these stages clearly in those around you. If you have been unprofitable, you have lived them. We are now in the anger and depression phase. So....Why write this at all Two reasons. First, one of the things that has made me profitable in crypto is being able to deploy close to bottoms. That edge disappears if you mislabel the market. If you think a bear market is still ahead, you wait for bear prices. You don’t realize you are already seeing them. Second, I want this view to be debated aggressively or to snap people out of the wrong framework. I put high probability on this take being right. That is why I will start putting my money where my mouth is soon.

Where are you watching today’s game? 🌍 Drop your country’s flag in the comments ⬇️

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