Tiramisu

@r0ck3t23 Baloney… Musk bows to Netanyahu.

Chamath Palihapitiya just said what Silicon Valley is terrified to say out loud. On Joe Rogan. To millions of people. Without flinching. Chamath: “The only person that we can trust is Elon.” Not whispered at a dinner party. Not buried in a podcast nobody listens to. Said on the record. Full weight behind it. And then he told you why. Chamath: “I feel like he’s the least corruptible. He’s the most independent thinking. And I think he’s the one that has an actual empathy for people.” One of the sharpest capital allocators in Silicon Valley history looked at every founder building AI. Every single one. And chose the one the media spends the most energy telling you to hate. That alone should stop you cold. Chamath: “Then there are folks where there’s just an insane profit motive.” He’s talking about OpenAI. He’s talking about Google. He’s talking about companies that swallowed billions from Wall Street and now answer to shareholders before they answer to humanity. Chamath: “They’re less in control of the businesses that they run.” The people building the most powerful technology in human history do not control their own companies. Their boards do. Their investors do. Their liquidation preferences do. And these are the ones we’re trusting with superintelligence. Chamath: “He’s like, I need to get to Mars.” This is the fracture line nobody wants to touch. Every other AI founder is optimizing for the next earnings call. The next funding round. The next quarterly number that keeps the machine fed. Elon is optimizing for the next planet. One group builds to satisfy investors. The other builds to survive as a species. Those aren’t different strategies. Those are different operating systems running on different hardware. And it changes everything about how you build. When your time horizon is 90 days, you cut corners. You monetize behavior. You trade safety for speed because the board needs a number by Friday. When your time horizon is interplanetary, you can’t afford a single shortcut. Because shortcuts don’t survive launch. Chamath: “Where is this going to end up?” The only question that matters. And nobody in power wants you asking it. Because the answer comes down to who gets there first. If it’s a company owned by Wall Street, superintelligence becomes the most sophisticated extraction engine ever built. Every decision optimized. Every behavior predicted. Every market captured. Not for you. For the balance sheet. If it’s someone who can’t be bought, pressured, or voted out by a board of directors, there’s at least a chance it bends toward something bigger than quarterly revenue. History never remembers who built the most powerful technology. It remembers who controlled it. And what they used it for. The only founder in AI who cannot be fired by a board, leveraged by an investor, or replaced by a shareholder vote is the one they spend the most energy telling you not to trust. Ask yourself why.

@RnaudBertrand One caveat … is he an anti trumper ?

There’s no overstating how extraordinary this Atlantic article is, given the author and the outlet. As a reminder Bob Kagan is: - The co-founder of Project for the New American Century, probably the single most imperialist Think Tank in Washington (which is quite a feat) - A man who spent his entire life advocating for American military interventions, especially in the Middle East, and a vocal advocate of the Iraq war. He started advocating for intervention in Iraq before 9/11, which speaks for itself... - The husband of Victoria Nuland, an extremely hawkish former senior U.S. official (a key architect of U.S. policy in Ukraine, with the consequences we all witness today) - The brother of Frederick Kagan, one of the key architects of the Iraq surge In other words, we ain’t exactly looking at some sort of anti-imperialist peacenik. This is quite literally the guy Dick Cheney called when he needed a pep talk. And the man is writing in The Atlantic, the most reliably pro-war mainstream media outlet in the U.S. (also quite a feat). So when HE writes that the U.S. “suffered a total defeat” in Iran that has no precedent in U.S. history and can “neither be repaired nor ignored,” it’s the functional equivalent of Ronald McDonald telling you the burgers aren’t great: it means the burgers really, really aren't great. Extraordinarily (and somewhat worryingly, for me), his arguments for why this is such a defeat are virtually the same as those I laid out in my article “The First Multipolar War” last month (open.substack.com/pub/arnaudbert…). Here they are 👇 1) Vietnam/Afghanistan were survivable, this isn't He agrees that this war - and the U.S. defeat - is fundamentally different in nature from previous U.S. interventions. Where I wrote that the wars in Vietnam and Afghanistan didn’t change the equation much in terms of power dynamics (“in the grand scheme of things, the giant walked away with little more than a bruised ego”), Kagan writes that “the defeats in Vietnam and Afghanistan were costly but did not do lasting damage to America's overall position in the world.” And when I wrote that “it’s painfully obvious that the Iran war is of a qualitatively different nature” from these, he writes that “defeat in the present confrontation with Iran will be of an entirely different character.” Same point. 2) Iran will never relinquish Hormuz and uses it as selective leverage When I wrote that Iran has turned “freedom of navigation” on its head by establishing “a permission-based regime” through the Strait of Hormuz, Kagan arrives at the same conclusion: “Iran will be able not only to demand tolls for passage, but to limit transit to those nations with which it has good relations.” He also agrees that “Iran has no interest in returning to the status quo ante,” when I myself cited Iran’s parliament speaker Ghalibaf in my article, saying: “The Strait of Hormuz situation won’t return to its pre-war status.” Same point and virtually the same words. 3) Gulf states will have to accommodate Iran He agrees that most Gulf states will have no choice but to accommodate Iran, effectively making Iran into a, if not THE, dominant regional power. Kagan writes “the United States will have proved itself a paper tiger, forcing the Gulf and other Arab states to accommodate Iran.” On my end, I wrote that “the Gulf monarchies will eventually have to choose between two security propositions. One where they stay aligned with a distant superpower that [can’t protect them]. The other proposition being: make peace with the regional power that just proved it can hit [them] whenever it wants.” Which is not much of a choice… 4) Military impossibility to reopen Hormuz Kagan writes that “if the United States with its mighty Navy can't or won't open the strait, no coalition of forces with just a fraction of the Americans' capability will be able to, either.” On my end, in my article I cited Germany’s defense minister Boris Pistorius: “What does Trump expect a handful of European frigates to do that the powerful US Navy cannot?” The exact same argument. 5) Global chain reaction Kagan agrees that this is a global strategic failure that fundamentally changes the U.S.’s position in the world. As he puts it: “America's once-dominant position in the Gulf is just the first of many casualties… America's allies in East Asia and Europe must wonder about American staying power in the event of future conflicts.” You’ll have guessed it, I wrote essentially the same thing: “Think about what it says if you’re Saudi Arabia, quietly watching your American-built defenses fail to protect your own refineries. Or any European country now facing the worst energy shock since 1973, caused not by your enemy but by your ally, and realizing that said ‘ally,’ supposedly in charge of ‘protecting’ you, couldn’t even protect Israel’s most strategic sites - when it’s the country with which it’s joined at the hip. I’m not even speaking about China or Russia who are seeing their worldview being validated on almost every axis simultaneously.” 6) Weapons stocks depleted, credibility shattered Kagan: “just a few weeks of war with a second-rank power have reduced American weapons stocks to perilously low levels, with no quick remedy in sight.” Me: “America’s most advanced weapons systems are much more vulnerable than previously thought - not theoretically, but in actual combat.” Kagan: “America's allies… must wonder about American staying power in the event of future conflicts.” Me: “The U.S. security guarantee has been empirically falsified in real time.” ----------- So, yup, Bob Kagan and I agree on nearly everything. I need a shower 🤢 Reassuringly though, we still differ on a few fundamental aspects. First of all, arguably the most important one, the moral aspect. In typical neocon fashion, his article contains not a word about the human cost of this war - not the 165 schoolgirls, not the devastation inflicted on Iranians during 37 days of bombing, not the toll this war is taking on the entire world through its devastating economic consequences (the economic devastation on ordinary people worldwide is referenced only as a political problem for Trump). For him, this is purely a strategic chess problem, morality and people don’t figure in his mental map. For me, the moral bankruptcy of this war isn't separate from the strategic failure - it is the strategic failure. Much like Gaza can only be a failure because of its sheer abjectness. Secondly, there is not an instant of reflection in the article on how we got there. Which is unsurprising because he personally, alongside his wife, his brother, and every co-signatory of every PNAC letter, spent a generation pushing for exactly this kind of confrontation. The man spend 30 years advocating for military dominance in the Middle East and hostility towards Iran, thereby forging them as an adversary and facilitating this very war that he now says has “checkmated” America. I know introspection has never been the neocon forte but at some point you have to stop setting houses on fire and then writing op-eds about how surprising the smoke is. Last but not least, we differ on what should be done. This is the funniest part of Kagan’s article - showing that the man is decidedly beyond salvation. On one hand he calls this a “checkmate” by Iran, and a U.S. defeat that can “neither be repaired nor ignored,” yet an the other hand his solution for it is… surprise, surprise… a bigger war still! He writes that what’s to be done is “engage in a full-scale ground and naval war to remove the current Iranian regime, and then to occupy Iran until a new government can take hold.” The arsonist's solution to the fire is a bigger fire ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ For my end, this was the conclusion of my previous article: "There is almost a Greek tragedy quality to U.S. actions lately where every move taken to escape one’s fate becomes the mechanism that delivers it. The U.S. went to war to reassert dominance - and proved it could no longer dominate. It demanded allies send warships - and revealed it had no real allies. It waged forty years of maximum pressure to break Iran before this moment came - and instead forged the very adversary now capable of meeting it. It started the war in part to have additional leverage over China - and handed the world the spectacle of begging China for help. The prophecy was multipolarity. Every American action to prevent it reveals it instead." I wouldn’t change a word. The only thing that's changed since I wrote it is that even the arsonists now smell the smoke. Src for the Atlantic article: theatlantic.com/international/…

@StateDept Are they still doing this?? Maybe if they didn’t start the war, they would have avoided this whole mess.

SECRETARY RUBIO: We’re asking the UN to call on Iran to stop blowing up ships, remove the mines, and allow humanitarian relief. If the international community can’t rally behind this and solve something so straightforward, then I don’t know what the utility of the UN system is.

@thewriterme Where is this home located and how much did it cost you to build?

I love the coffee bar and pantry. What is your favorite feature?

@NikkiHaley And… your point is?

The ship the U.S. seized in the Strait of Hormuz this weekend was headed from China to Iran and is linked to chemical shipments for missiles. It refused repeated orders to stop. Another reminder that China is helping prop up Iran’s regime—a reality that can’t be ignored.

@RedWavePress Yah, right.

Rahm Emanuel: “No more U.S. military aid—financial assistance from the taxpayers for Israel. You’re a country like all other allies of ours, Japan, South Korea, the Brits, the Germans. You’re going to pay full price; you can buy what you want, but you have to abide by the laws that should be it.” “No more U.S. taxpayer support... I was in the room when President Obama’s largest assistance was under President Obama. We did the funding for the Iron Dome. But here, the days of taxpayer subsidizing Israel are over.” “No more financial aid.”

@caitoz Easy for you to say because you’re in Australia.

I don't mind admitting that I hope the US and Israel suffer a crushing, devastating defeat in Iran. I hope this war collapses the entire US empire. My only loyalty is to humanity, and being on Team Human in today's world means being against the US empire and against Israel.

Well, Jesus Christ did cure the sick … performed miracles on the handicapped… so there’s that.

Ouch.

@DineshDSouza This is not an all or nothing …

It’s time for Republicans, conservatives and patriots to rally behind Trump. Politics is fought in teams. There is no way forward other than with Trump. Anti-Trump means a return of censorship, political targeting and an open border. Don’t be an agent of your own destruction.

chuckle w a bit of a snort

Sure

@AlBuffalo2nite I thought the idea was to bomb Iran back to the Flintstones ages? This rescue thing doesn’t sound anything like it. “WILMA!”

They don’t want you to understand what just happened… An American F-15E goes down deep inside Iran… hostile territory… mountains… IRGC hunting our guy with a bounty on his head. Most nations lose that pilot. America launches a full-spectrum response. Hundreds of special operators Dozens of aircraft Cyber… space… intelligence all synced in real time SEAL Team 6 goes in. Not a movie… not a drill… real combat. The WSO survives over a day on the ground… evading… hiding in rock formations… beacon active… waiting. Then the hammer drops. Extraction under fire Forward base inside enemy territory Aircraft disabled… and destroyed on-site so Iran gets nothing Let that sink in… We flew INTO Iran… fought… recovered our man… and left nothing behind. Zero Americans killed. That’s not luck… That’s capability. That’s training… doctrine… coordination… and absolute refusal to leave our people behind. People love to talk about American decline… Meanwhile… operations like this are happening in real time. Quietly. Precisely. Decisively. You’re watching the difference between a military… And a machine built to win. #SilentMajoritySpeaks #AStoneGroove

Wait a minute here… thought I was moving to red state TN to escape the blue CA. :)

I expect to wake up tomorrow with news that will equally shock and depress me.

@marklevinshow They volunteer to defend the US you numbskull!! Young Americans do not join the military to fight for other countries— especially Israel who enjoys genocide.

You don’t know anything, actually. We don’t have a draft. We have an all volunteer military.  Brave young men and women who join by choice.  And recruitment is way up under President Trump.  These are great patriots who mostly don’t listen to the likes of you or the cabal of Woke Reich American-haters and your Marxist-Islamist comrades.  I talk to them all the time. I meet them. They are fantastic heroes and patriots. They don’t want your handwringing and fake pity.  And they sure as hell don’t want your anti-American propaganda and trash talk. They want us to support them, especially now. In Israel they do have a draft. It’s a tiny country with a tiny population.  Virtually every family is involved. It’s a matter of life and death. The current Israeli ambassador to the United States lost his eldest son in one of the first battles in Gaza against the Hamas terrorists.  He was a commander of a unit who was killed in a booby trapped building as they sought to clear it out. The prime minister of Israel lost his older brother at Entebbe while leading a special forces unit to rescue Israelis who’d been kidnapped.  He was killed by a sniper.  The PM himself was wounded in battle years ago. But none of this will matter to you. Back to your bullsh*t.  And here come the bots.

@LauraLoomer @TulsiGabbard Define “matter of time”… days, weeks, months?

People can say whatever they want for the sake of going along to get along, I stand by what I said. Only a matter of time before Tulsi is gone and she launches her 2028 presidential campaign. How could anyone at the White House have confidence in @TulsiGabbard when she threw President Trump under the bus at her Senate hearing, she hired Tucker’s former producer to do her comms and she has continued to protect crazy Joe Kent who is badmouthing @POTUS everyday while also trying to help Charlie Kirk’s killer walk free. Tulsi is toast. She has totally betrayed President Trump and I am fighting for President Trump. I fight for him everyday. I’m not going to hold hands and sing Kumbaya for optics. Words are just words. She is done.

@LauraLoomer Can you be more specific with regard to a time period, otherwise you sound like a cheap carnival fortune card reader.

I know you are friends and that is your own personal business, but trust me, she is 100% going to be resigning or will be fired. There has been agreement her time has come to an end. I was right about the DOJ and people went ballistic over a year ago. I will be proven right about ODNI too.

@naomirwolf Women should never change their last names…unless they like the spouse’s name better. With that said, changing your name after a divorce is the least of your problems.

I can literally do that, Meryl Streep. I flew from Florida at five am and drove two hours from LGA to upstate NYC so I could vote in the last election. BTW I had to show my divorce papers to Citibank in order to cash a hundred dollar 1995 treasury bill, so the bank could see my former married name, and I was able to do that too. The Democrats are showing that they care little about voting and they assume others -- ie all married women -- care as little as they do.

@ryangrim Talk is cheap.

Khanna and AOC both against US funding for Iron Dome 👇