Gruntled History Teacher

10.3K posts

Gruntled History Teacher

Gruntled History Teacher

@Fabius1453

History teacher, High-Anglican, Pro-Life. It's Constantinople, not Istanbul, and you should read more Tocqueville.

Corinth, TX Katılım Mayıs 2011
486 Takip Edilen984 Takipçiler
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Gruntled History Teacher
Gruntled History Teacher@Fabius1453·
If you step back from the daily churn over the ceasefire and Hormuz, it should become apparent that, over the last three years, Iran has suffered a decisive reversal in its imperial fortunes in the Middl East. And if you pull back even further, it turns out that Rome’s wars with Persia have more than a little in common with the current conflict, and were often fought across some of the exact geography as Iran used to build its “ring of fire” in the Middle East today. It’s even possible that the extended fallout from the current conflict may strongly echo the wars of Alexander, Septimius Severus, and Heraclius.
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Tyler Rogoway
Tyler Rogoway@Aviation_Intel·
USMC F/A-18C/Ds pushed to the Middle East are extremely capable drone hunters. Now significantly upgraded w/APG-79V4 AESA and APKWS air-to-air rockets. Good targeting pod etc. Marines better at dispersed ops. Expect them forward and working in counter air screen over gulf if needed. Good for hunting small boats too etc
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Gruntled History Teacher
Very first attempt with the new GPT image model. Didn't even ask for the textbook-style blurbs. Scary good. But also still wrong. The text is legible and mostly accurate, but dull. The interior image of the houses have the wrong artwork (real image on the right). This model is going to flood the internet with seemingly accurate images in no time. Value of knowing the real thing just went up.
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Gruntled History Teacher
@cruelsardaukar That episode was fantastic. Mummies founded Egypt. And the Biblical narrative always associates Egypt with the land of the dead.
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The Last Great Arrakian Dynasty
“In pre-dynastic Egypt, cities of the dead (cemeteries) appeared before cities of the living (the living were nomadic pastoralists at the time)” -Tides of History, Feb. 11th, 2021. So, the answer to the question “why was Egypt…Like That?” Is “We have no idea, but it was Like That literally from the start, and it being Like That was how it bootstrapped its way into the second or third major complex of cities in human history.”
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Gruntled History Teacher
@joejoe419723966 That sounds right to me. I think the movie treated Benedict Cumberbatch’s character (who orders the attack) as a stand-in for the general stereotype of officers wasting the lives of men during the whole war.
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joejoe
joejoe@joejoe419723966·
@Fabius1453 By 1917 both sides were keenly aware of the manpower limitations that they had. Only the Americans were really reckless.
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Gruntled History Teacher
I remember watching the mass infantry assault in 1917 and thinking how alien it felt to watch a society throw so many “surplus” men away. Of course, the whole plot of the movie is one man trying to stop the attack. Very 2017 sensibility for a 1917 phenomenon.
The Bazaar of War@bazaarofwar

The aging of the world’s population is a completely unprecedented phenomenon, with serious consequences for the future of warfare. The underlying problem—a shrinking manpower pool—is not, however. Several parallels between past cases and the present. 🧵

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Gruntled History Teacher
Good capability, worth keeping (especially the institutional training around CAS). Whispers* but a Super Tucano or even A-1 Skyraider could do it just as well. And cheaper. A-10 was downed by MANPADs already. It’s armor doesn’t really help against missiles.
Eric S. Raymond@esrtweet

Gotta admit I've changed my mind about this. I was in the camp that loved the Hog but was grudgingly prepared to concede that its time had passed - not survivable in a modern threat environment stiff with drones and MANPADs. But damned if the A-10 didn't turn out to be an effective tool against small-boat swarms in the Straits of Hormuz. And not so expensive to fly or ammo up that you end up with a nasty shot-exchange problem either - not something you can say for putting the F-35 on that job. The Hog has demonstrated that there is still a tier of missions in between the envelope of an attack helicopter and a fast fighter for which the Hog is excellently fitted. Still. In 2026. Of course you need to have done SEAD to lower the odds that it will be popped by competent air defense, but the US Air Force is very good at that mission. As it keeps demonstrating. I was wrong. The Hog deserves its extension. And we ought to be seriously looking at building an A11. Maybe not a manned A11, but a functionally similar instrument with a big fucking gun and the ability to fly low and slow and loiter on a patrol area. In conclusion: "Let me sing you the song of my people: BRRRRRRRRRT."

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Gruntled History Teacher
Imagine a farmer leaning on his fence one day, chatting with his neighbor, and complaining about his metal tools, which lose their edge quickly, and are heavy and bulky. His neighbor on the other hand, happens to have a knack for working with copper, and enjoys it; he’d rather spend more time working in his makeshift shop. But ever since he was kicked by a donkey as a boy, he’s always been nervous around large animals, and he doesn’t like tending them. Before long, the farmers realize they can make a deal, tending animals in exchange for better quality tools. The productivity of both farms rises.
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Gruntled History Teacher
Gruntled History Teacher@Fabius1453·
@akarlin We need some new models for thinking about large scale national conflicts. 20th century total war is probably not the most helpful. Less relative state capacity, and a lot less national unity. Technology also nudges you towards smaller, more highly trained forces.
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Anatoly Karlin 🧲💯
Anatoly Karlin 🧲💯@akarlin·
Deranged as Karp's manifesto I want to circle back to "national service" in particular. This idea that conscription reduces the likelihood of frivolous wars is a common one. The problem is that it's also complete nonsense and the normies who parrot it are just cucking themselves. The two most aggressive states in the world today are Russia and Israel. Both have conscription. Russia in fairness doesn't (or almost doesn't) use conscripts in its war with Ukraine for political reasons, but its conscripts do provide a very cheap labor and logistics tail that enables almost all of its very expensively bought contract troops to be concentrated against Ukraine. Israel uses conscripts in all its wars. The most aggressive state in Africa is Rwanda. Conscription. Ethiopia is fighting a brutal civil war. Conscription. Turkey is aggressive agaist the Kurds. Conscription. Iran is aggressive. Conscription. (Though in fairness it's currently mostly fighting with IRGC professionals). Azerbaijan aggressed against Armenia using conscripts. Azeris are very nationalistic so this wasn't a political problem. North Korea is the maxxed out conscription state and maintains a very aggressive posture. The Taliban are aggressive against Pakistan and have conscription. Of the world's other notably aggressive states only two, the US and Saudi Arabia, do not have conscription. This is the reality today, it's scarcely worth mentioning that historically both the world wars and most major wars in the modern era were initiated by states with aggressive conscription policies. The idea that conscription deters wars is built on the idea that this is a risk and cost that "everyone" shares. You have to be clinically delusional to believe that. Under both voluntary and conscription based models, the brunt overwhelming falls on the poor and the less connected (this at least is the case in the modern era - I am aware that this was more nuanced in the world wars since officers had higher mortality rates). However, the difference is that at least under the voluntary model, soldiers are compensated for the risks they undertake at "fair" market rates, whereas under conscription, this labor is requisitioned for near subsistence cost from the sociodemographic groups least able to evade it (in reality this is not "near free" but a hidden and extremely regressive labor tax). Furthermore, it is a universal truism that there is much less pressure to account in detail for things that are expensive than things that are free or cheap on paper. Consequently, it's not even clear why commanders would be incentivized to be more careful with the lives of conscripts than with professionals. (Realistically, in a big and serious war, the only defense conscripts would have against being disposed off at scale is the traitorous liberal media, and we know what MAGA, the Tech Right, Palantir, etc. think of them). This manifesto couldn't be more of a caricature if it tried. Billionaire arms dealer and state sponsored snooper wants to pump his bags by cramming cheap low-info meat into the army and rightoids cheer this and hail based Palantir. It's almost as if utilization really is programmed for them.
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Palantir@PalantirTech

Because we get asked a lot. The Technological Republic, in brief. 1. Silicon Valley owes a moral debt to the country that made its rise possible. The engineering elite of Silicon Valley has an affirmative obligation to participate in the defense of the nation. 2. We must rebel against the tyranny of the apps. Is the iPhone our greatest creative if not crowning achievement as a civilization? The object has changed our lives, but it may also now be limiting and constraining our sense of the possible. 3. Free email is not enough. The decadence of a culture or civilization, and indeed its ruling class, will be forgiven only if that culture is capable of delivering economic growth and security for the public. 4. The limits of soft power, of soaring rhetoric alone, have been exposed. The ability of free and democratic societies to prevail requires something more than moral appeal. It requires hard power, and hard power in this century will be built on software. 5. The question is not whether A.I. weapons will be built; it is who will build them and for what purpose. Our adversaries will not pause to indulge in theatrical debates about the merits of developing technologies with critical military and national security applications. They will proceed. 6. National service should be a universal duty. We should, as a society, seriously consider moving away from an all-volunteer force and only fight the next war if everyone shares in the risk and the cost. 7. If a U.S. Marine asks for a better rifle, we should build it; and the same goes for software. We should as a country be capable of continuing a debate about the appropriateness of military action abroad while remaining unflinching in our commitment to those we have asked to step into harm’s way. 8. Public servants need not be our priests. Any business that compensated its employees in the way that the federal government compensates public servants would struggle to survive. 9. We should show far more grace towards those who have subjected themselves to public life. The eradication of any space for forgiveness—a jettisoning of any tolerance for the complexities and contradictions of the human psyche—may leave us with a cast of characters at the helm we will grow to regret. 10. The psychologization of modern politics is leading us astray. Those who look to the political arena to nourish their soul and sense of self, who rely too heavily on their internal life finding expression in people they may never meet, will be left disappointed. 11. Our society has grown too eager to hasten, and is often gleeful at, the demise of its enemies. The vanquishing of an opponent is a moment to pause, not rejoice. 12. The atomic age is ending. One age of deterrence, the atomic age, is ending, and a new era of deterrence built on A.I. is set to begin. 13. No other country in the history of the world has advanced progressive values more than this one. The United States is far from perfect. But it is easy to forget how much more opportunity exists in this country for those who are not hereditary elites than in any other nation on the planet. 14. American power has made possible an extraordinarily long peace. Too many have forgotten or perhaps take for granted that nearly a century of some version of peace has prevailed in the world without a great power military conflict. At least three generations — billions of people and their children and now grandchildren — have never known a world war. 15. The postwar neutering of Germany and Japan must be undone. The defanging of Germany was an overcorrection for which Europe is now paying a heavy price. A similar and highly theatrical commitment to Japanese pacifism will, if maintained, also threaten to shift the balance of power in Asia. 16. We should applaud those who attempt to build where the market has failed to act. The culture almost snickers at Musk’s interest in grand narrative, as if billionaires ought to simply stay in their lane of enriching themselves . . . . Any curiosity or genuine interest in the value of what he has created is essentially dismissed, or perhaps lurks from beneath a thinly veiled scorn. 17. Silicon Valley must play a role in addressing violent crime. Many politicians across the United States have essentially shrugged when it comes to violent crime, abandoning any serious efforts to address the problem or take on any risk with their constituencies or donors in coming up with solutions and experiments in what should be a desperate bid to save lives. 18. The ruthless exposure of the private lives of public figures drives far too much talent away from government service. The public arena—and the shallow and petty assaults against those who dare to do something other than enrich themselves—has become so unforgiving that the republic is left with a significant roster of ineffectual, empty vessels whose ambition one would forgive if there were any genuine belief structure lurking within. 19. The caution in public life that we unwittingly encourage is corrosive. Those who say nothing wrong often say nothing much at all. 20. The pervasive intolerance of religious belief in certain circles must be resisted. The elite’s intolerance of religious belief is perhaps one of the most telling signs that its political project constitutes a less open intellectual movement than many within it would claim. 21. Some cultures have produced vital advances; others remain dysfunctional and regressive. All cultures are now equal. Criticism and value judgments are forbidden. Yet this new dogma glosses over the fact that certain cultures and indeed subcultures . . . have produced wonders. Others have proven middling, and worse, regressive and harmful. 22. We must resist the shallow temptation of a vacant and hollow pluralism. We, in America and more broadly the West, have for the past half century resisted defining national cultures in the name of inclusivity. But inclusion into what? Excerpts from the #1 New York Times Bestseller The Technological Republic: Hard Power, Soft Belief, and the Future of the West, by Alexander C. Karp & Nicholas W. Zamiska techrepublicbook.com

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Gruntled History Teacher
Gruntled History Teacher@Fabius1453·
@mhp_guy Come check out one of the Founders classical Academies in the area. Much more rigorous than the local ISDs, traditional great books and Latin (all Freshman read Homer and Vergil), and no IPads. I teach at the Lewisville location. One of the best schools in the state.
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Chris Koerner
Chris Koerner@mhp_guy·
The bar is laughably low for US public schools I live in a wealthy, 10/10 grade district, & yet still: - Kids can retake tests unlimited times until they get an 85+. Why study? - We worship at the altar of must-stay-high home values - $48k/year teachers are broke & quitting left & right. Of course they are! - There are more iPads, Chromebooks and GoPros than there are kids, but teachers are still broke and the schools are begging for money - It costs parents $900 for kids to take the bus in the afternoon only, but this doesn't make a dent in the budget - Classes are overcrowded. 1 of 3 of our elementary schools recently closed down due to funding - Schools are largely funded by property taxes, which are $10k - $40k/year(!!) in this area, but the schools are still broke! - Football & other sports are doing more than great with regards to funding. We rival many colleges in production value and amenities. Why? - We've known for decades that kids are getting fatter every year and that highly processed foods are one culprit, but we still feed kids garbage en masse. This was yesterday's lunch: What do you think home values would be if we dropped to a 6/10 grade? Incentives are aligned to ensure that can't happen. I know other states like Florida manage school districts differently. Here in TX the same house next door could be worth 30% more if in a better district. Why can't we rely on iPads and football less and pay teachers more? The household income here is over 3x the teachers' salaries! But they don't see any of it. Why can't kids go outside more and feed our kids real food? Obesity is more expensive than healthy food. The teachers, parents and administrators here are good, talented and loving people, but working within and against a broken system. The US does better than many other countries, but we can do so much better. How? I'm genuinely asking. We've never homeschooled, but it's looking more and more tempting every year...
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Gruntled History Teacher
Gruntled History Teacher@Fabius1453·
Against the superficial stereotype, but true to the deeper tradition of both modern parties. Also a problem if you’re a traditional conservative worried about modernity, technology, and all the rest. (I think if I was a monk in 1500, I’d have to tell my abbot to buy a printing press).
Aleph@woke8yearold

The DNC has banned the use of Claude and chatGPT. Supposedly Republican staffers in Congress also use AI far more than Democratic staffers. The American left is broadly anti-AI in a way that the right is not.

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Gruntled History Teacher
Gruntled History Teacher@Fabius1453·
Iran’s geography has always made invasion from the West especially difficult. Roman armies tended to defeat Parthia/Persia on the Mesopotamian plain, which several times led to Persian internal collapse. This even holds true for Alexander, who defeated Darius III at Guagamela, not far from where Heraclius won the Battle of Nineveh against the Sassanians nine-hundred years later. This ancient pattern has some surprisingly strong echoes today in the current conflict.
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Gruntled History Teacher
Gruntled History Teacher@Fabius1453·
“Tehran sacrificed its international legitimacy, became a pariah state, and implicitly asked its populace to suffer severe economic hardship and isolation, all for the sake of a now-shattered imperial project. Its enemies have demonstrated the ability to violate Iranian territorial integrity virtually at will, and have decapitated the head of the Iranian state itself. A government that cannot protect its borders or its head of state is one that cannot sustain even basic claims of sovereign legitimacy. The best the Islamic Republic can probably hope for is that it retains enough internal loyalty and patronage over its security forces that it can rule by terror indefinitely, which looks more like North Korea or Cuba than a respected and feared regional hegemon.”
Gruntled History Teacher@Fabius1453

If you step back from the daily churn over the ceasefire and Hormuz, it should become apparent that, over the last three years, Iran has suffered a decisive reversal in its imperial fortunes in the Middl East. And if you pull back even further, it turns out that Rome’s wars with Persia have more than a little in common with the current conflict, and were often fought across some of the exact geography as Iran used to build its “ring of fire” in the Middle East today. It’s even possible that the extended fallout from the current conflict may strongly echo the wars of Alexander, Septimius Severus, and Heraclius.

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Gruntled History Teacher
Gruntled History Teacher@Fabius1453·
If you step back from the daily churn over the ceasefire and Hormuz, it should become apparent that, over the last three years, Iran has suffered a decisive reversal in its imperial fortunes in the Middl East. And if you pull back even further, it turns out that Rome’s wars with Persia have more than a little in common with the current conflict, and were often fought across some of the exact geography as Iran used to build its “ring of fire” in the Middle East today. It’s even possible that the extended fallout from the current conflict may strongly echo the wars of Alexander, Septimius Severus, and Heraclius.
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