Fahad

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@Esterabby_ @cirnosad They’re out of ammo Iran is way too large and assets too distributed.

@FahadHandle @cirnosad they would turn iran into rubble, the internal challenges would mount up to an extent they would not be in position to bother ships in SOH

Please don't forget that I was speaking the truth BEFORE the war began as well. I even predicted the hours when it would start. I will never ever misguide you, whether it's good news or bad. The truth is our only compass towards God.

@Esterabby_ @cirnosad Y

@FahadHandle @cirnosad so foolish of u to think so

@fundstrat SOH closure is cumulative, the market can’t look through an event it doesn’t know the end of. There’s also Bab Al Mendeb strait closure odds rising significantly.

Equity markets are forward looking, so stocks do not need to fall further "bad news" on the Iran war - we believe 90%-95% thru Iran-war stock decline - wars boost GDP, hence, EPS forecasts up - but risk is high oil plus prior shocks lead to higher inflation expectations Fed has a tough job and needs to maintain credibility Great speaking to @JoeSquawk @BeckyQuick @andrewrsorkin on @SquawkCNBC this am @FundstratDirect @FundstratCap @BitMNR $BMNR

@cirnosad You’ve said this before.

It gives me no pleasure to write this but Iran is on the edge of completely losing the initiative and a return to an intense death spiral due to its delay in promised attacks. The attack on Pars field and the latest attack on the additional refineries have crippled its ability to make good use of the Hormuz. The next hours and days to come will determine its fate. If it fails to carry out its promised retaliation, this is the end of the war and, unfortunately, Iran.

@DynamicMoats This can work but only after the market digests the biggest energy and petchem shock in human history.

Base case increasingly seems like: -$200 oil case off the table -US/Israelis continue bombing for some time, fails at regime change but eventually stops and calls it a win. Iran escalates on a tit-for-tat and de-escalates once US/Israelis stop bombing -Iran tolls and controls Hormuz, traffic gradually reverts. Pipeline diversion + traffic recovery results in LSD crude supply deficit -Regions like SE Asia, Australia, and parts of Europe experience periodic fuel shortages -People start bidding AI stocks and BTD wins again. AI fundamentals are stronger than they were 6 weeks ago and likely the only group of stocks with major upward earnings revisions vs. old economy companies that will see cost pressures. -Can equity markets hold up at $100 dec 26 brent/$130 june 26 brent? TBD Feel free to change my mind with facts

@PaulSkallas If he apologizes and closes up shop in the Middle East they’ll open it. It’s really up to Trump to keep this shit show up.

They can't open the Strait. A deterrent hasn't been established yet

@MaxBlumenthal Yes

The US regime has mimicked virtually every dastardly Israeli tactic in Iran Will it now implement the Hannibal Directive?

@3nnadi This is what he means

@MacroEdgeRes How do you know?

Iran's protocol for Hormuz would not take effect until war is over, so potentially weeks, months, or later #MacroEdge

@goldyama @FirstSquawk Can you share? I can’t find it…

@FirstSquawk Again manipulation, have you checked your source? its applied when there is PEACE and the US has withdrawn.

IRAN’S DEP FM GHARIBABADI ANNOUNCED POST-WAR CONSULTATIONS WITH OMAN REGARDING A SAFE PASSAGE PROTOCOL FOR STRAIT OF HORMUZ. THE NEW NAVIGATION REGIME AIMS TO: - STOP ONGOING AGGRESSION. - PREVENT POTENTIAL FUTURE AGGRESSIONS. - ENSURE PEACETIME SECURITY & ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION.

@Tracking_Power Leftism (including Marxist and 'post marxist' factions) has long been itself subverted by the sanitized and anodyne 'critique' it recycles and reproduces - abstract, politically correct, and toothless 'theory' that siphons off resistance that would genuinely challenge power.

Some Leftists struggle to grasp the empirical evidence indicating how the Zionist entity has subverted and infiltrated the US body politic, and thus exerts control over United States foreign policy.

@policytensor China is keen to avoid the thucidydes trap. They will support Iran enough to degrade the U.S but not pose as an existential risk or head on confrontation.

That’s incorrect for two reasons. First, the US cannot credibly threaten to go to war with China if China arms Iran as the US does Israel. This is precisely why Dulles’s doctrine of massive retaliation failed and why his bluff was called in 1954. Second, the US cannot dare to fight China. And if it does, it will lose handily. What this war has revealed is that the US cannot even suppress Iranian fire and despite an all out attack, Iran can severely degrade US capabilities in the region. If survival and suppression is so far against Iran, there is no possibility of fighting China in Asia. Zero.

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@chipflare @EricJhonsa Iran can do that with a toll

@FahadHandle @EricJhonsa Iran wants reparations and GCC is probably going to have to invest/contribute in some way.

IMO, today’s price action suggests many investors have been too pessimistic about the odds of some kind of deal to end the war being reached in the not-too-distant future. While markets have generally understood that Trump wants a deal, the amount of damage inflicted on the Iranian regime and its military-industrial base over the last month – all against the backdrop of a lot of internal anger/unrest and an already-faltering economy with sky-high inflation – has often been underappreciated. And the same might go for the pressure likely being exerted behind the scenes by China, India and other big Iranian trading partners/Middle Eastern energy buyers. The regime also has strong incentives to end the war soon, hence at least some regime figures signaling that they’re willing to engage in talks to end it. (And I say this as someone who thought in February that many investors underappreciated Iran war risks, given the size of the U.S. force buildup that was taking place in the Middle East.)

@Reformed_Trader cfr.org/articles/trump…

I find it silly that so many really think Trump admin had/has no plan in Iran as if this admin was the first to think about attacking Iran. Have people forgotten that the Pentagon has been wanting to wage war with Iran for decades? This is much bigger than Trump's war. This is a multi decade plan now at work. I would even say most of the planning is likely not even Trump's. Trump pulled the trigger/gave the green light. The DoD/DoW has been waiting to engage for a very long time.

@Stephanie_Link forward estimates will come down.

Worth pointing out that the $SPX multiple has compressed 17% and now stands at 19x forward estimates. And at the same time earning are accelerating and are now expected to grow 14% y/y.

@TMTLongShort Or Trump did it because Netanyahu told him to do it or he'd release the Epstein files. Ockam's razor.

How I frame the current Iran op: A) this is about China - it’s cheaper to demonstrate to Xi that the day after a TW invasion his economy will be choked off from energy vs losing American lives protecting the island B) there was Gulf state buy in - specifically Saudi and UAE. This included providing capital to backstop USD assets which are trumps Achilles heel C) the objective is to have control of Hormuz at the end of this - specifically veto power that doesn’t just require a parked carrier which in a conflict China can lob a thousand missiles at. You need land-based American controlled assets there permanently. Either actual Americans or proxies via Israeli or Saudi forces. D) this is not going to be Iraq or Afghanistan - there is a wide spectrum between full regime change and nation building vs small contingents of special forces taking modest strategic points on the strait and carpet bombing everything close enough to put those troops at risk E) regime change isn’t a certainty but higher likelihood than consensus - I’d put it now at 50/50. Again this assumes no boots on ground in Tehran. “Experts” saying this is impossible lack imagination and understanding of how technology has shifted over the last two decades. F) this is also political theatre - both for the American people who lost the appetite for forever wars and who need to fully internalize that Europeans are worthless as allies in their current form as well as the Europeans themselves who need to be reminded how much pain a hostile America can inflict on them if they decide China is their preferred option G) Russia-Ukraine is closely connected to all of this. On one hand Trump can accel Russian production degradation by feeding UKR intelligence on Russian refinery capacity deeper inland while at the same time can completely pull back from supporting Ukraine as part of the aforementioned political theatre… “this is not our fight” - this is why Trump didn’t ask Ukraine for help on drones. It’s a card that can be played in multiple directions. H) analysts are not wrong when they freak out about global energy prices risk. Analysts are wrong to tie that back to midterms and American voters. Trump will use executive powers to manipulate prices at the pump if necessary. I) liquidity is decreasing globally just as it’s about to increase domestically. The U.S. via swap lines and control over institutions like the IMF is the liquidity provider of last resort. Kind of like when your insurance provider starts setting Forrest fires in your neighborhood and then immediately jacks up the premiums you have to pay to protect your house. J) remove the words “fair” and “moral” from your vocabulary. We are firmly in a world of realpolitik and Americas don’t give a flying fuck if the rest of the world burns. Hegemony or bust. K) there is a dual benefit of this war being an advertisement of US military prowess and a weakening of the veneer that China has closed the gap with the US systems. This impacts how countries will act in the coming days and which sphere they opt in to. L) trumps tolerance for dead American soldiers is higher than you think. Trumps tolerance for lower stocks is higher than you think. Doesn’t mean he won’t take steps to mitigate both. You don’t fight for hegemony without being certain you can handle punches to the face. M) terror attacks on the US will be the final step for Iran before regime change. It’s higher prob than consensus thinks but it’s also not a certainty because Americans are bloodthirsty when the homeland is touched and it’s a door you can’t walk back out of. European & UAE terror attacks likely come first. N) this operation has gone better than any reasonable analyst would have predicted. Panicans are starting from the premise that every person in Washington is retarded and Trump walked into a trap with the assumption that not a single barrel of oil would be lost or soldier scratched. Retardation 🫡

@MikeZaccardi @FactSet Expect E to fall so all this is meaningless

The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 19.9. This P/E ratio is equal to the 5-year average (19.9) and above the 10-year average (18.9) @FactSet