housefire

@kjnkjp @orrdavid

I had GPT 5.4 do a research-intelligence-grade analysis of the 2nd and 3rd-order effects of the Iran war, and Nikkei closing prices going forward. By next month, we'll see PE/PP solvent producers 'double-ordering' due to cracker production cuts. Nikkei will fall to 50,900.

"resin spread" (ethylene - naptha) is the underlying KPI of the entire industrial sector, and Japan only has a 2 month stockpile of polyethylene. I.e. once crackers reduce output due to margin destruction, you start seeing auto and electronics shortages thereafter.

@EricJhonsa congrats. love to hear your thoughts on mkt regardless

Some personal news: I’ve accepted a position as a portfolio manager for Dutch Asset Corporation, an RIA that provides actively-managed portfolios (primarily featuring individual stocks) for high-net-worth clients and institutions. At Dutch, I’ll be managing money using a diversified, tech-focused, long-short equity approach similar to the one I've been applying on my own over the last few years. I’ve been providing consulting services for Dutch since 2023 and have gotten to know the firm’s founder, Cullen Breen, well over that time. After meeting with Cullen and other Dutch team members in October, and passing the Series 65 exam in December, I agreed to join the firm as a PM. Agreeing to manage outside money isn’t something I did lightly, both due to the responsibilities involved and because I’ve enjoyed what I’ve been doing over the last few years. But I’m looking forward to the challenge of applying my strategy on a larger scale, and to having the additional resources that a firm like Dutch can provide. To avoid conflicts of interest, the only personal funds I’ll be trading stocks with will be among the assets that I’ll be collectively managing at Dutch. And for compliance reasons, I won’t be able to share portfolio holdings or returns on here going forward. But I’ll continue sharing thoughts on markets, companies, and tech trends over here. (Boilerplate disclaimer: Dutch Asset Corporation is a registered investment adviser. Any prior investment activity shared was not in a professional capacity and is not indicative of future results. Full disclosures: dutchasset.com/disclosures)

@mathlonning finally! youve come to my side

$VIX spike with indexes inching lower is bad if you’re bullish equities. Without immediate de-escalation, this is quite bad for economy. Rates are inching higher and higher. Cuts seem far fetched this year, and now hikes are being priced in. Terribly spot to be in, if you’re long equities that is.

@institLPGP Israel took regime change off the table today. But continues to attack Basij forces to increase the likelihood something happens

Iran+oil near a tipping point and can break either way; for me Israel is driving trumps bus and wants a clearing event: regime change or nuclear program elimination Private credit challenged by software valuations and can’t also handle an industrial slowdown 20% cash

@mathlonning the s&p inclusion committee:

$SMCI just crime after crime. Well done S&P committee!!

@mathlonning He says theyve achieved goal of destroying missiles and nuke capability and takes regime change off table

I’m not listening to this Netanyahu press conference, but it appears to be bullish equities? Only thing I can find. Would like to see Vix close under 22. Though fairly far fetched .

@GringoInvesting @TMTLongShort I guess it is most credibly the extreme deficit that generates the feeling of acuity then as the delta shrinks you feel normal

@TMTLongShort @chipflare I'm curious if you have done drug free caloric restriction previously to compare it to. Caloric restriction on it's own has a strong cognitive effect due to hormones that are released, especially the cortisol.

Wish I knew about this much earlier. Really is miraculous stuff. The flow state aspect by far the most compelling part since starting it ten days ago.

@illyquid Ok but we're talking about Tencent here

Honestly, the pullback was a layup buying opportunity. The stock is up 7% this morning after Nomura Securities upgraded it from Neutral to Buy and raised the target price from 1,350 yen to 1,900 yen. They note, "Profit forecasts are being boosted by the continued strong performance of the watch business, riding on the tailwinds of G-SHOCK's revitalization and the retro boom." Social arb called this much earlier; analysts seem to be catching up. I suspect we'll see more upgrades soon. They are still focused on G-Shock momentum while Casio is starting to accelerate as well. Plenty of juice left in this squeeze. Glad I was able to triple down as I shared publicly.

@rennyzucker nvda becomes less of a problem for the ai trade as more mcap accrues to the value chain

@chipflare At a macro level maybe but not sure I agree with that on the micro.

I’m surprised people aren’t freaking tf out over the gtc pumps being repulsed tbh

@blondesnmoney someone remind him that he would own 5% of the 106b sndk spin lol

@ArrakisGlobal Thanks. I bigger driver for ADM is the new highly-supportive RVO which is due by EOM.

@chipflare All the above good as well.

New long: $ADM, interesting catalyst with E15 restriction being lifted increasingly likely now with pain at the pump ⛽️ from the Iran 🇮🇷 energy shock

@ArrakisGlobal E15 is also bottlenecked by downstream rack and gas station infrastructure. Look at the current penetration level in the midwest where its legal to dispense.

@ArrakisGlobal Isnt the biz more sensitive to oils value chain. Why not GPRE ANDE ALTO for more pure ethanol volume exposure?

@WaterworldCapi1 No

@BlueMountainBu2 @WarrenPies They quite openly do not

@WarrenPies Airlines hedge