Prakash Gopal

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Prakash Gopal

Prakash Gopal

@FathomsOne

Navy veteran, Lecturer Maritime Security ANCORS @UOW, Non-Resident Fellow @USSC, Academic Fellow @AIinstitute, ship driver, PhD @UOW, Dad who plaits

Wollongong, New South Wales Katılım Ocak 2010
666 Takip Edilen1K Takipçiler
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Victor Abramowicz
Victor Abramowicz@VKAbramowicz·
1/2 So, this article on naval Mine Countermeasures (MCM) mentions the (canned two years’ ago) RAN MCM project (SEA 1905) which was to replace good old SEA 1778 (the previous MCM one) which I worked on Back in the Day (2010ish)! A few quick points of interest: 1) Further to some recent chatter about mining/MCM being low priority, let me point out that 1778 was being worked on 16 years’ ago, received approval to go ahead in 2012, and finished delivering its bits and pieces in 2024. All for stuff that was literally MOTS. A cracking pace, no? Did I mention that the replacement project was canned in 2024? Oh yeah I did. 2) If you want an idea about why MCM is so goddamn expensive (and why mines are such a wonderfully asymmetric weapon) consider that a functional (old) milspec mine costs around $2k. You can launch it off rails that you’ve welded to a powerboat, ala the Iranians (see pic in next post). The world’s best tech to beat something like that is called a one-shot mine destructor, like the SeaFox C the RAN brought a grand total of 8 of. They are quite literally mini torpedoes with their own sonar, lights, cameras, etc that - once you’ve found a mine - cost up to it (guided by a human operator) and then kaboom themselves and the mine. Do you know how much a SeaFox costs? I do. It’s a lot more than $2k let me tell you. Better hope the other side doesn’t have more than 8 mines! May interest @FathomsOne and @redunley and @AlexLuck9. Possibly even @SamRoggeveen .
Alex Luck@AlexLuck9

The issue isnt so much that RAN needs to address priorities in their order of relevance, as Hughes suggests. But rather the question whether MCM really can see a start of renewal within the 5 to 10 yr timeframe, owing to budgetary and other constraints. navalnews.com/naval-news/202…

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Arzan Tarapore
Arzan Tarapore@arzandc·
We just need to kill the Supreme Leader, and that’ll do it. We just need to obliterate the nuclear program. Again. We just need to destroy the missiles. We just need to sink the navy. We just need to take Kharg Island. We just need to…
Lindsey Graham@LindseyGrahamSC

Iran’s attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz is done at its own peril. President Trump’s decision to take the war to Kharg Island - the crown jewel of Iran’s oil and gas economy - was necessary, bold and in my view, highly effective. This will help shorten the war. Seldom in warfare does an enemy provide you a single target like Kharg Island that could dramatically alter the outcome of the conflict. If Iran loses control or the ability to operate its oil infrastructure from Kharg Island, its economy is annihilated. He who controls Kharg Island, controls the destiny of this war. Semper Fi.

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Prakash Gopal
Prakash Gopal@FathomsOne·
A PhD is not just about the product. You shouldn’t be wasting time pursuing one if this is how you intend to go about it.
Shruti@heyshrutimishra

The new academic wealth gap isn't your university. It's not even your advisor's connections. It's who knows Claude can turn 50+ research papers into a thesis chapter in 3 hours and who's still manually coding qualitative data. I just watched a sociology PhD skip 8 weeks of analysis. Here are the 9 prompts they used:

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Josh Billinson
Josh Billinson@jbillinson·
This would be like the funniest possible time for a big boat to get stuck sideways in the Suez Canal
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Neil Renic
Neil Renic@NC_Renic·
Accusations of US strategic miscalculation wrongly assume the existence of a strategy
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Prakash Gopal
Prakash Gopal@FathomsOne·
@vsirnate The number of mines is almost irrelevant. Just the threat of a minefield is enough to disrupt shipping for a long time. Also, establishing and maintaining a swept channel is arduous.
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Vasundhara Sirnate
Vasundhara Sirnate@vsirnate·
I’ve had a quick read over this paper by Prof Talmadge on the potential mining of the Hormuz Strait by Iran. Very very interesting. Iran could, in theory, tactically mine the strait with less than 700 mines. Clearing them would be a nuisance for the US but could be done. Don’t know how this scenario will play out as the Iranian regime has been quite effective in their asymmetric warfare plan and certainly evolved its strategic thinking since the time this paper was published. I highly recommend that everyone interested go through this as it’s a great explainer to help us understand what may come.
Kelly Grieco@ka_grieco

Iran is reportedly laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. For everyone trying to get smarter on this issue and fast, @ProfTalmadge authored the definitive study on it. It is worth your time to read it: caitlintalmadge.com/uploads/8/5/4/…

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Isabella DeSheplo
Isabella DeSheplo@irdesheplo·
A very happy 250th birthday to An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations to all who celebrate.
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Prakash Gopal
Prakash Gopal@FathomsOne·
@VKAbramowicz 🎯 I suppose with that range it wouldn't matter if it had a conventional or a nuclear warhead. If one is fired in anger, the adversary will assume the worst, and we will all be burnt toast.
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Victor Abramowicz
Victor Abramowicz@VKAbramowicz·
Lots of people think that the world should operate according to what they feel makes sense to them, and are entirely disinterested in understanding how and why it actually does.
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Prakash Gopal
Prakash Gopal@FathomsOne·
A straw man argument, really. A naval vessel does not need permission from coastal states to operate beyond the territorial seas. But allowing a vessel into port is a sovereign decision, and in this case, it wasn't a good one.
Meera Srinivasan@Meerasrini

#SriLanka: While New Delhi has openly objected to Chinese research ships docking in Sri Lanka, why was there such silence when an American submarine was operating in close proximity to Sri Lanka?  - @TheMorningLK asks in its Editorial themorning.lk/articles/NTdac…

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Arzan Tarapore
Arzan Tarapore@arzandc·
Indian media is not reporting anything here - they’re simply (and inexplicably) amplifying one highly speculative TWEET. What a mindless echo chamber.
Ryan Grim@ryangrim

Indian media reporting that the U.S. may have used its cooperative access to secure Indian communications to locate the Iranian ship, which was indeed observing “peace protocols,” which mean it was effectively defenseless theweek.in/news/middle-ea….

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Prakash Gopal
Prakash Gopal@FathomsOne·
Some have suggested that the Dena should have remained in port and sought to be interned in a neutral country. What if the ship had orders to return (highly likely)? The crew may have abandoned the ship and the Supreme Leader, but their families? War is ugly.
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Prakash Gopal
Prakash Gopal@FathomsOne·
Apropos the Dena, some folks are chastising the Indian Navy for not being aware of the US sub's presence in the area. Welcome to the challenge of ISR at sea. Also, between being blissfully unaware and in the know (possibly complicit), I think India would prefer the former.
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Prakash Gopal
Prakash Gopal@FathomsOne·
@d_extrovert @cvkrishnan I am not sure it would, but I am not familiar with RAP tech and performance. Unlikely that a sub would operate so close particularly on the West coast where the shelf is very shallow even 20 miles out at sea.
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Kunal Singh
Kunal Singh@d_extrovert·
@FathomsOne @cvkrishnan True, shallow water is bad for longer-range passive acoustics detection. I was wondering whether the RAP arrays solve the problem to some extent by covering a smaller conical area directly above them.
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Krishnan
Krishnan@cvkrishnan·
Sinking an Iranian Naval ship this close to Indian territory looks good on India? No. But that’s just izzat maxing commentary. India has no way to know a USN sub was there in the vicinity. India doesn’t patrol ASW missions on every inch of Indian Ocean to be able to track every sub. The decision to sink the Iranian frigate would’ve been taken only in last 24 hrs based on how Iran was escalating in the Gulf. Now on the relationship side, ppl expect US to inform India before it hits the frigate or what? Maybe it did. If not in SL EEZ it would’ve been in Arabian Sea. Doesn’t make us look any better if one is focused on izzat. This is how power differential plays out in real time. What should India’s response be? Kadi ninda? Or ASW patrols in near seas? What does that achieve? Better focus our resources will and energy on our core interests which is to protect SLOC for our trade. End of the day it’s the Wild West. And it is clearly contact sport. Even protecting one’s own core interest without taking sides requires in to enter the arena with a gun not sit out and expect to be taken seriously. If you want to play sphere of influence games that should be built in credible continuous play for years to show the influence. Not talk shops like Indian Ocean Rim Association or SAGAR.
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Prakash Gopal retweetledi
Frank Scott
Frank Scott@Franksquarerig·
There is something disturbing about politicians relishing attack footage like this, as though it was an arcade game, rather than real life with real people being killed.
The Stoic Sailor@TheStoicSailor

Frightening stuff. Interested to hear thoughts on the legality of this. A nation that the US hasn't formally declared war on has a ship returning home, and the US strikes it, destroying it and killing the majority of the crew.

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Prakash Gopal
Prakash Gopal@FathomsOne·
@d_extrovert @cvkrishnan Ah - the coastline = shallow water = bottom interference = not effective at all. Arrays work best in deeper waters - choke points are ideal like the GIUK gap. There was some talk of Indo-Japanese collaboration on an array near A & N but I don't know where that stands, or sits!
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Kunal Singh
Kunal Singh@d_extrovert·
@FathomsOne @cvkrishnan Thanks! I get your point-- it would be vulnerable in an adversarial context, which was not the case here. Should India not plant RAP arrays along its entire coastline? Perhaps it does. If it doesn't, what is the constraint?
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Kunal Singh
Kunal Singh@d_extrovert·
@FathomsOne @cvkrishnan Also, happy to take the conversation elsewhere. I am guessing that at least some of these topics are not suitable to discuss online in public.
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Prakash Gopal
Prakash Gopal@FathomsOne·
@d_extrovert @cvkrishnan 3000 m is good depth for active sonar operation. Assuming the sonar is mounted on a ship or a sub, the range would still be not more than a few tens of km. The sonar platform would have to be very close to detect a sub - which would make it very vulnerable.
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Kunal Singh
Kunal Singh@d_extrovert·
@FathomsOne @cvkrishnan Thanks-- very useful! How shallow would be shallow for active sonar? A quick search shows a depth of 3 km+ in the area where the ship was sunk. I am told that this is sufficient for passive sonar (subject to background noise, of course). Is it low for active sonar?
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Prakash Gopal
Prakash Gopal@FathomsOne·
This is one of the few sensible takes on the sinking of the Dena.
Abhijit Singh@abhijit227

The sinking of an Iranian corvette in Sri Lanka’s EEZ - tragic as it is - highlights the issue of neutrality in wartime. The vessel had left Vizag well before hostilities began, but must have known it would be hunted by US submarines in the IOR. Its crew likely understood that regional states could not offer harbour without appearing to take sides - an act forbidden for neutrals in war.

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Prakash Gopal@FathomsOne·
@Kim_HDarragh India has no jurisdiction in that location to lodge any protest, justifiable or otherwise. But it would likely feel upset at the circumstances around this action. Also, who cares if India is indeed upset?
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Kim Heriot-Darragh
Kim Heriot-Darragh@Kim_HDarragh·
This is a point I should’ve latched onto earlier: this was in international waters, but India sees foreign military freedom of navigation and rights more restrictively than many. So does Sri Lanka if I recall correctly.
Bashir Ali Abbas🇮🇳🇵🇸@BashirAliAbbas

@KabirTaneja @sushantsareen @kushanmitra Correct. Especially since we’ve long differed with the US on EEZ rights. If we protest US FONOPs in the same region, then this should be similarly protested.

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Keşfet

@redunley @AlexLuck9 @SamRoggeveen @vsirnate @VKAbramowicz @d_extrovert @cvkrishnan @elonmusk