Femi Oyebode

“Good science and good art are always about a condition of awe . . . I don’t think there is any other function for the poet or the scientist in the human tribe but the astonishment of the soul.” ― Derek Walcott, who died on this day in 2017

Belgian court clears way for trial over 1961 killing of Congo PM Lumumba bbc.in/47AAHx4

Belgian aristocrat to face charges over murder of Congo’s first premier ft.trib.al/EnMaEnK

The BBC has officially filed a motion to dismiss Donald Trump‘s $10 billion defamation lawsuit over the editing of his Jan. 6, 2021 speech in a “Panorama” documentary. “We have said throughout we will robustly defend the case against us,” a BBC spokesperson said on Monday. “Put simply — the documentary was never aired in Florida — or the U.S. It wasn’t available to watch in the U.S. on iPlayer, online or any other streaming platforms including BritBox and BBC Select. We have therefore challenged jurisdiction of the Florida court and filed a motion to dismiss the President’s claim.” variety.com/2026/digital/g…

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Three weeks into the war with Iran, a number of observations as someone who spent years war-gaming this scenario. 1. The U.S. and Israel may have produced regime transition in the worst possible way. Ali Khamenei was 86 and had survived multiple bouts of prostate cancer. His death in the coming years would likely have triggered a real internal reckoning in Iran, potentially opening the door to somewhat more pragmatic leadership, especially after the protests and crackdown last month. Instead, the regime made its most consequential decision under existential external threat giving the hardliners a clear upperhand. Now we appear to have a successor who is 30 years younger, deeply tied to the IRGC, and radicalized by the war itself – including the killing of family members. Disastrous. 2. About seven years ago at CNAS, I helped convene a group of security, energy, and economic experts to walk through scenarios for a U.S.--Iran war and the implications for global oil prices. What we’re seeing now was considered one of the least likely but worst outcomes. The modeling assumed the Strait of Hormuz could close for 4–10 weeks, with 1–3 years required to restore oil production once you factored in infrastructure damage. Prices could spike from around $65 to $175–$200 per barrel, before eventually settling in the $80–$100 range a year later in a new normal. 3. One surprising development: Iran is still moving oil through the Strait of Hormuz while disrupting everyone else. In most war games I participated in, we assumed Iran couldn’t close the Strait and still use it themselves. That would have made the move extremely self-defeating. But Iran appears capable of harassing global shipping while still pushing some of its own exports through. That changes the calculus. 4. The U.S. now finds itself in the naval and air equivalent of the dynamic we faced in Iraq and Afghanistan. It’s a recipe for a quagmire where we win every battle and lose the war. We have overwhelming military dominance and are exacting a tremendous cost. But Iran doesn’t need to win battles. They just need occasional successes. A small boat hitting a tanker. A drone slipping through defenses in the Gulf. A strike on a hotel or oil facility. Each incident creates insecurity and drives costs up while remind everyone that the regime is surviving and fighting. 5. The deeper problem is that U.S. objectives were set far too high. Once “regime change” becomes the implicit or explicit goal, the bar for American success becomes enormous. Iran’s bar is simple: survive and keep causing disruption. 6. The options for ending this war now are all bad. You can try to secure the entire Gulf and Middle East indefinitely – extremely expensive and maybe impossible. You can invade Iran and replace the regime, but nobody is seriously going to do that. Costs are astronomical. You can try to destabilize the regime by supporting separatist groups. It probably won’t work and if it does you’ll most likely spark a civil war producing years of bloody chaos the U.S. will get blamed for. None of these are good outcomes. 7. The other escalatory options being discussed are taking the nuclear material out of Esfahan or taking Kargh Island. Esfahan is not really workable. Huge risk. You’d have been on the ground for a LONG time to safely dig in and get the nuclear material out in the middle of the country giving Iran time to reinforce from all over and over run the American position. 8. Kharg Island can be appealing to Trump. He’d love to take Iran’s ability to export oil off the map and try to coerce them to end the war. It’s much easier because it’s not in the middle of IRan. But it’s still a potentially costly ground operation. And again. Again, the Iranian government only has to survive to win and they can probably do that even without Kargh. 9. The least bad option is the classic diplomatic off-ramp. The U.S. declares that Iran’s military capabilities have been significantly degraded, which is how the Pentagon always saw the purpose of the war. Iran declares victory for surviving and demonstrating it can still threaten regional actors. It would feel unsatisfying. But this is the inevitable outcome anyway. Better to stop now than after five or ten more years of escalating costs. Remember in Afghanistan we turned down a deal very early in the war with the Taliban that looked amazing 20 years later. Don’t need to repeat that kind of mistake. 10. The U.S. and Israel are not perfectly aligned here. Trump just needs a limited win and would see long-term instability as a negative whereas for Netanyahu a weak unstable Iran that bogs the U.S. down in the MIddle East is a fine outcome. If President Trump decided he wanted Israel to stop, he likely has the leverage to push it in that direction just as he pressured Netanyahu to take a deal last fall on Gaza. 11. When this is over, the Gulf states will have to rethink their entire security strategy. They are stuck in the absolute worst place. They didn’t start this war and didn’t want it and now they are taking with some of the worst consequences. Neither doubling down with the U.S. and Israel nor placating the Iranians seems overwhelmingly appealing. 12. One clear geopolitical winner so far: Russia. Oil prices are rising. Sanctions are coming off. Western attention and military resources are shifting away from Ukraine. From Moscow’s perspective, this war is a win win win. 13. At some point China may have a role to play here. It is the world’s largest oil importer, and much of that supply comes from the Middle East. Yes they are still getting oil from Iran. But they also buy from the rest of the Middle East, and a prolonged disruption in the Gulf hits Beijing hard. That gives China a real incentive to help push toward an end to the conflict.

Our people took all the exultations & salutations our father used to praise our ancestors, they ascribed it to the imported gods. Then they say our ancestors are evil but took their adjectives Funny people

Visiting the island of Socotra in Yemen can seem like you’re on another planet. 307 out of the 825 or 37% of the plant species found on the island isn’t found anywhere else on Earth, including these dragon blood trees.

🚨 The largest anxiety GWAS to date JUST dropped Over 850,000 genomes It found 58 risk loci and strongly points to GABAergic signaling as a core driver... ...the same neurons targeted by benzodiazepines. We finally have a robust genetic map for anxiety 🧵

This is perhaps the best thing produced by the internet in recent history.

check out this new book for a chapter on Mad Studies challenging the mainstream link.springer.com/book/10.1007/9…

@Manny_Street I’m told by reliable sources in both the US and Russia that the Kremlin has had the Epstein files, and more similar, for years.

Group photo of Evolutionary Psychiatry workshop @rcpsych @rcpsychTrainees on Friday 13 Mar with a group of enthusiastic psychiatric trainees from across the UK. Next year’s trainee event will be on 19 Mar 2027! @RealAdamHunt @AgnesAyton @Derektracy1 @RealAdamHunt @Reemabed81Reem

@JollyPaps1 @iwalesino @Akanbiodi I rarely go to substack. I’ll go and have a look

@iwalesino @Akanbiodi @FemiMind You almost missed the bus prof, my newsletter London Listening Sessions is pushing five years. Now Substack itself is going the way of PE & rearranging its priorities. Used to be about the writer now the premium is the reader’s attention

Most folks are taking to Substack these days, and the novelist and physician Fẹmi Olugbile just brought his spot to my attention. cc @Akanbiodi, @FemiMind @JollyPaps1 synthesiz.substack.com/p/a-speech-in-…

@iwalesino @Akanbiodi @JollyPaps1 I’ll go and have a look.

@gikkos1 @awaisaftab @AllenFrancesMD @JRBneuropsiq @BeresfordPeter @mariusturda @rcpsych @SubodhDave Congratulations

Open Access "Psychiatry after Kraepelin" has been published today 🙏 for excellent contributions @AllenFrancesMD @FemiMind @JRBneuropsiq @awaisaftab @BeresfordPeter @mariusturda and 🙏 @rcpsych (HoPSIG, PhilSIG) and 🙏@subodhdave for advance review link.springer.com/book/10.1007/9…

Tree of the Day and some excellent spring like runners up all in the same park Madrid 🇪🇸

Our new census shows 1 in 7 consultant psychiatrist posts are vacant in England meaning there’s only 1 consultant for every 2,500 people expected to have a mental illness each year. “We need Government to address this situation as a matter of urgency by including long-term measures to recruit and retain more psychiatrists in the upcoming workforce plan” said President @DrLadeSmith Read more: rcpsych.ac.uk/news-and-featu…