pika2zero@ruggedpikachu
Predictions for US - Iran 🇺🇸🇮🇷
- No TACO🌮
Trump can't chicken out. He has amassed too many forces. One of largest armies in history, larger than midnight hammer, larger than anything since the Iraq war in 2003. You don't do that for 'better negotiations'. It would look super embarassing if he just went home without doing anything.
- No Negotiations 🤝
You cannot really negotiate with a fundamentalist hardliner government. Its like negotiating with the taliban or something. They will not move away from their positions and neither will the US. The first round of negotiations has shown that both sides continued to press their maximum demands.
Iran cannot concede anything because it would be their end and Trump can't because he has always criticized Obamas deal with the mullahs as 'weak' and a 'mistake'.
- Weeks long campaign rather than precision strike 🛩️
This campaign will not be like midnight hammer where they drop a handful bunker busters and leave, all to be done within one evening.
US is probably pushing for regime change or at least maximum destruction of all nuklear and missile production sites. That will take a while longer. They'll also hope that protesters can do something during that time, a strike could fuel a new revolution.
Strategic goals ⚠️🌍
A pacified Iran, be that via regime change to a friendly government or just destruction of their capabilities, would be a huge US win.
- It binds less forces in the middles east. US can move assets to the Pacific, to deter China from invading Taiwan or fight them if it happens. 🇹🇼
- More than a third of Chinas oil comes from Iran. Cutting that off would be a major win for the US alliance. 🇨🇳
- Russian oil is partly exported via Iran and their tankers, ending that would hurt Russia. 🇷🇺
- A peaceful Iran would save the US a lot of money. 💲
Yes this campaign already cost billions, but it'll still be cheaper in the end.
Think of what the Houthis and their blockade of the red sea / suez cost them in trade, think of what striking all these proxies costs, think of all the rockets they have to shoot down for israel and all the missile defense systems they have to put on guard in their bases nearby.
So in short i think yes, a strike will happen and probably sooner than later. My guess is in the next two weeks. Prepare accordingly.
If it's indeed a longer campaign then the strike doesn't necessarily have to happen on a weekend. The Olympics end in two days, after that its fair game imo.
📸 US tankers in the Azores this week
