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Lip Bae Tan
703 posts
The most important skill you can learn is setting aside bias.
So many times I encounter someone several orders of magnitude smarter than me who reaches the opposite (wrong) conclusion because of bias.
Irrational Analysis@insane_analyst
I have very entertaining stories I hope to share publicly someday. For now... LOL Drinking with old college buddies.
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@kudusdey Ok the rats are gone? Get their hopes up about Maldini returning and bring on another moneyball company to repeat the same mistakes we just made
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@MilanEye @SkySportsNews Amazing, another cheerleader as coach. Redbird, you idiots, you double down when nothing has worked.
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🚨🚨 Milan have approached Andoni Iraola’s representatives about becoming their head coach next season
[@SkySportsNews]
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@Fillynillyswily He is right about the IPO aspect though. They are dumping IPO's on retail as fast as they can to absorb all & any liquidty left before things roll over.
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Is Milan 2026 one of our worst teams in the 21st century?
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Lip Bae Tan retweetledi
If the market doesn’t care about high oil why the fuck would it care about anything else in Iran?
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@lolitadiariess Land Rovers are the go to for wealthy mothers of all sizes families
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i really want 4 kids because i want us to be able to ride rollercoasters with no one getting left out but i don’t want an ugly car???
Maria Oswalt@RehumanizeMaria
currently sitting at a coffee shop, overhearing a table of 15-year-old girls debating the ideal number of kids to have lol “with just one, it gets lonely. two, and they'll end up hating each other. with three, one always gets left out. four...is good."
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I'm pretty sure Anthropic will IPO at $1.5T-$2T as well
Their ARR growth is too staggering
Rittenhouse Research@RHouseResearch
@bucketshopcap Not unreasonable to think Anthropic exits 2027 at $200B run-rate with very healthy operating margins. Could easily underwrite a 25% IRR over a 3 year hold if you’re entering at $1T in Q4-26.
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@artemioborgo3ca @MilanNewsit Cosa sono le stronzate? Questo non è successo?
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@MilanNewsit Ma porco d'un demonio, sta cosa dovete metterla tutti i giorni, oltremodo è pure una cazzata enorme... Ma quanto fate schifo?
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Di Marzio: "A gennaio hanno detto a Tare che non c'erano soldi e ha preso Fullkrug. Poi sono comparsi improvvisamente 35 milioni per Mateta"
milannews.it/calciomercato-…
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@bubbleboi Huh? There’s more than 2-3 buyers and there’s only 1 seller. Memory companies are over earning and it’s clear they can raise prices or ask for firm commitments. Just because they’re improving efficiency from decisions year+ ago doesn’t mean the environment hasn’t change for pp
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They can’t. I feel like most people who are financial analysts don’t understand that the customer has the pricing power when there are only 2-3 and they don’t neeeed to expand production.
ASML pushing into advanced packaging and metrology is self evident of this. Most of the work being done at ASML is making the machine more economical.
SuspendedCap@ContrarianCurse
$ASML real chance thst if the Dutch actually grow a pair they can straight up extort customers. Like oh TSM Samsung MU Hynix INTC you guys are making hundreds of billions on operating income? Fuck you pay up
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Intel's move today is directly coordinated with PM's who read the Lip-Bu Tan JP Morgan interview, saw comments around 14A/18A customers. Then realized Intel ex products biz is ~2x book value
While TSMC is 11x, with nobody knowing if the company might exist in 10 years
$INTC
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I don’t believe the CPU agent story. The future will look very different.
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@PurpleDrink_LLC How is he still doing this. @nikitabier can you just ban his IP so we can end the mutual suffering?
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I like labias that are a little dangly. Labias that have character
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@lokoyacap @insane_analyst Might steal this for a future profile pic if that’s alright
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@jasonschips The bigger point is time. I mean obviously he’s not all in puts, but this was positioning on March 31st. This can be gamed quite easily and the SPX was in a drawdown so he almost certainly closed it. He probably still owns INTC LITE etc
Moreover, who even cares what Leopold does
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Leopold's 13F caused the dumbest sell-off in semiconductor history (I am aware I played a part in the FUD, mb). The lesson is simple. OPTIONS ON 13-Fs ARE MISLEADING!!
The value of options reported on the 13F is the market value of the notional, aka the shares controlled by the options. This means that:
1. The actual market value of the option is way way smaller.
2. That small value has a huge range depending on the expiry date and the moneyness.
If they were one- or two-month out OTM puts to hedge Iran, it could be 1 to 3% of what is reported on the 13F. Buy back your semis, people!
Doing an actual analysis on his 13F, we can observe a few interesting patterns.
1. He existed all of his optics positions, EVERYTHING. $LITE, $TSEM, $COHR.
2. He added to SanDisk and it is now his second largest position.
3. He remains surprisingly bullish on Bitcoin miners as it still makes up a third of his portfolio
This article is my attempt at mindreading him. I've read the original situational awareness essay like five times and I've followed every single 13F since Q2 2025 so I think I'm pretty qualified.
open.substack.com/pub/jasonschip…
Jason's Chips@jasonschips
Leopold released his 13F and uhh... WHAT IS THIS? Puts in $SMH $NVDA $ORCL $AVGO $AMD $MU $TSM $ASML Bro turned into Michael Burry However, the fact that he was in these positions on March 31st means that the following rally over the next six weeks absolutely obliterated him. What is happening to Leopold (or what does he think is happening to us)?
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@dylan522p @creatine_cycle Ok now have The Information publish an article based on this joke tweet and send semis -5% again
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Breaking: Andrej Karpathy just filed his Q1 2026 13F.
Here's everything you need to know about his recent 13F Top 10 positions:
1. VanEck Semiconductor ETF - $SMH - [Put] — $2.04B
2. Nvidia - $NVDA - [Put] — $1.57B
3. Oracle - $ORCL - [Put] — $1.07B
4. Broadcom - $AVGO - [Put] — $1.01B
5. Advanced Micro Devices - $AMD - [Put] — $969M
6. Bloom Energy - $BE — $879M
7. SanDisk - $SNDK — $724M
8. Micron - $MU - [Put] — $584M
9. CoreWeave - $CRWV — $556M
10. Taiwan Semiconductor - $TSM - [Put] — $535M
New positions:
• $SMH, $NVDA, $ORCL, $AVGO, $AMD, $MU, $TSM, $ASML, $INTC, $GLW — all puts
• $MU [Call] — $422M
• $TSM [Call] — $355M
• $SNDK [Call] — $389M
Summary: He kept his AI infrastructure longs and opened $8.45B in new puts against tech and semiconductor
atlas@creatine_cycle
BREAKING: after just 4 hours at Anthropic @karpathy will be stepping away to join the A16Z new media team. "I think the next few years at the frontier of attention and growth hacking will be especially formative"
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@lolitadiariess Unfortunately the video quality sucks but this is a really good performance and awesome video of Venice
youtu.be/lCoyH6QAw-0
YouTube
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