
BROWNHOLE CAPITAL
2.7K posts

BROWNHOLE CAPITAL
@FinanceDave1
“Find the strongest assets,Buy them and let em cook. When you find a table pounder, buy enough!You just need a couple” $BTC $MSTR $MTPLF $HIMS $SPOT $TSLA $BMNR


On this account, I try to be raw and honest — which, frankly, isn't the best way to grow a large audience. I'm often wrong on timing or even the thesis itself. But here's my promise: when the facts change, my views change. I don't find facts to fit my narrative. I share my updated opinions, even when they're unpopular. My views on $PATH haven't changed. I still believe Maestro can scale to $1B ARR within five years, drive pull-through to UiPath's traditional business, and — combined with three years of flat opex from dogfooding their own automation — create a massive profitability explosion as revenue scales with leverage. Yes, AI has brought far more competitors into automation. That's a real risk. But UiPath has 10x'd the value of their product, and I strongly believe they'll grow because of AI, even while losing meaningful market share. I'm still bullish on UiPath. It's a 10x in five years in my base case. But after a week and a half of research, Better.com $BETR is a 20x — twice as good as $PATH on forward returns, both with high confidence. Thus my highest conviction pick has changed. As unpopular as it may be, its the truth. My conviction stack right now: 🥇 $BETR — 20x in 5 years 🥈 $PATH — 10x Then a tight pack: $HIMS, $DUOL, $LMND, $KLAR, $FOUR, $ZETA, $ROOT — all clustered between 10x and 7.5x, outstanding expected forward returns. Why Better? They've radically cut loan origination costs and built a single unified platform replacing 8+ fragmented systems. They're now selling it B2B — Credit Karma offers loans powered by Better. Coinbase offers bitcoin-backed loans powered by Better. Now 2 of the 3 biggest banks have literally reached out to Better and asked for product demos. It's a rapidly expanding B2B automated mortgage platform alongside a growing B2C business. Think Lemonade, but if they were also licensing their autonomous insurance platform to Geico. And it's only a $600M company. When rates were near zero in 2020, Better was doing ~$50M/month in profit. Today it trades at roughly 1x that peak monthly profit. The refi TAM shrank 90%+ when rates spiked. They’re now set up to grow revenue 50-70%+ per year for the next three to five years. They have a clean balance sheet, but are guiding to lose money for two more quarters before reaching profitability in Q3. If rates get cut meaningfully? This thing could easily 5x in a single year. But they only trade 2.8x sales today so even at 50-60-70% annual growth over five years, the math is staggering. I see insane asymmetry. What do you think? I actually love to hear from people as they do their own research, the biggest risks that they have uncovered or things that they have questions about. As when I am helping answer your questions, I will likely grow my own understanding as well.



$HIMS taking a look at Okupe (CFO) Over the last 6 months CFO Okupe has sold stock multiple times (over 8) Meanwhile: Andrew Dudum (CEO) has made 0 sales over the same period. That’s the key for me here... When the CEO... the person with the highest conviction and long term vision is holding while the CFO is simply monetizing compensation, it tells you @AndrewDudum believes in the long term. Okupe selling $4.8M at $20.33 just makes absolutely no sense, but then again its important to remember Okupe sold at $28.50 on the 15th of April 2025... One month later the price surged to $60+. And with Dudum still holding strong, that shows me his conviction.



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🚨 BREAKING: FDA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT RESTRICTION ON PEPTIDES - NEW YORK TIMES $HIMS $LLY $NVO





I love days like today because it’s when we get to show how efficiently we can help our customers connect with a provider, find the treatment that is right for them, and get it in their hands. Our first @novonordisk product shipments are heading to homes now! Big thanks to our talented team in Arizona who got the first one out the door this afternoon.
















