Cornelius

Bullish on structured financial products built using PMs🚀

@arnestrickmann 🤩

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(3/3) The core thesis is still the same: Polymarket prices have never been used as IV signals. Alongside Deribit and Derive, the divergences are now more meaningful, you're comparing crowd vs market-maker vs AI forecasts. Next: Telegram alerts when edge > 10%. 🚀🚀🚀

Other things that shipped this week (2/3): ➡️ First-passage pricing: BSM barrier model for "Will BTC hit X?" Polymarket markets ➡️ Market microstructure layer: OBI, RSI, EMA cross, VWAP all feed into a direction score (-10 to +10) shown on every signal, so you know if the technicals agree with the arb ➡️ Backtest engine: Kelly-sized bankroll simulation + edge distribution across all detected signals

Shipping update on my @SynthdataCo hackathon build 🧵 (1/3) Since Monday I've added @DeribitExchange as a 4th vol source. The terminal now shows a true four-way implied volatility comparison: @DeribitOfficial + @DeriveXYZ + @SynthdataCo + @Polymarket, all on the same chart. No other tool does this.

For the @SynthdataCo hackathon I'm building a volatility intelligence terminal for options traders, comparing implied volatility across three independent sources: @SynthdataCo forecasts, @DeriveXYZ options markets, and @Polymarket prediction markets. The novel approach: inverting Polymarket YES/NO prices through BSM to extract implied volatility. Prediction market prices have never been used as an IV signal this way. Placed alongside Derive's options smile and SynthData's AI forecasts, traders can instantly spot divergences and get actionable signals. Next steps: Telegram alerts and a full backtesting engine.

@polymatics_algo Thank you for the feedback🙌

@Fink_Big could be better with clearer ui 😁

Try it out yourself! polymarket-analyzer.onrender.com How would you improve this?

@iholdspot @Kalshi 👀👀👀

long $HYPE, $TSLA short $BNB based on Fed decision: Cut 25bps powered by @Kalshi all possible on app.pear.garden

@probabilitygod @itslirrato Where did you get that overview? Im building something similar.

@itslirrato the pnl difference is stark

I told myself I wouldn't take free money again But... Polymarket is offering +30% for a shutdown Do people actually think Dems approve budget after the Minneapolis situation? Please don't take this bet here: polymarket.com/event/will-the…

Alpha within🎁

@cjhtech @Kalshi @trylimitless @Polymarket higher🚀

Market: How much revenue will the US raise from tariffs in 2025? @Kalshi $160k in volume 🥉 @trylimitless $800k in volume 🥈 @Polymarket $1.05M in volume 🥇 When you deduct Kalshi's sports flow which comes from Robinhood, the prediction market landscape looks very different. Limitless is just one distribution deal away from being a multi-billion dollar company.

This is our latest piece, where we explore what the future may look like for price Prediction Markets (eg "will BTC > 100k in 1 day?"). We cover liquidity challenges, AMM vs CLOB, and opportunities for market-makers and traders

@Ranger_Global Plenty of opportunities in prediction markets👀

@tryokbet @Polymarket @Kalshi @trylimitless LFG

with the limitless second points season, we want our users to be able to farm airdrops from all of the big three whether it be @Polymarket @Kalshi or @trylimitless from a single super app. 🤓 docs.tryokbet.com/limitless

The opportunities are Limitless in prediction markets

@probabilitygod 👀

@64s @Ranger_Global Good point. I would say there is less path dependence risk as the payoffs of prediction markets are fixed and not influenced by volatility etc.

@Ranger_Global very interesting - is there a bigger 'path dependence' risk with the prediction market play? obviously looks great in this one example

Lower volatility and comparable returns?🤝🏼