Clem

@trylimitless @nolimitsintern Beat expectations, but did not beat expected beating of expectations?

Can someone explain why $META is down -8% today despite beating all the earnings?

@denitsa_tsekova Unfortunately doesn’t solve for wallet != user

Cool breakdown of who’s winning (and losing) in prediction markets Since early 2025: • 100K+ Polymarket accounts lost at least $1,000, nearly 2x the number that made that much • Profits are heavily concentrated among a small group • Everyone else, in aggregate, is down $131 M

@jessepollak LFG

if you haven't tried predicting on limitless, you should beautiful new brand, the best football (soccer) markets, and much more

@pscltllrd That’s actually an interesting use case

Sure, DeFi rating agencies are cool but prediction markets are better. Prediction market will price the risk continuously. Rating agencies will use their own model that could be debatable, needs to be updated, and might not cover everything.

@Ranger_Global I'm actually looking forward to seeing more financial products powered by pred markets underneath

@TimurNegru @mamboitaliano__ Appreciate the answer, thanks!

I'd say the usual things of visiting the place first - on a short holiday to begin with but also on a more extended stay too (a couple of months if possible). But super important is to have an open mind about it and know the reasons why you made the move in the first place. For example if you've made the move in search of a better life and the place does give you that, then be open to having other challenges that you'll need to overcome in order to achieve the initial objectives. It's unrealistic to expect for a place to have only positives and not be open about overcoming challenges that will pop along the way. Also, try to integrate into the local culture and community from day one. Make friends with your neighbours, learn the language, customs etc. It'll help a lot and hopefully this makes sense :)

I’ve been asked for my take on this wildly viral story involving Italy 🇮🇹 With my usual meticulousness, I’ve done a deep dive into Annabel Maud Fenwick Elliott Honestly, my opinion on the whole situation — and on her — is so sharp that I’ve decided not to publish it I’m sorry

@TimurNegru @mamboitaliano__ What would you recommend to try and prevent relocating to a place that is unfit for you?

Personally I think that everyone's needs and wants are different and I don't get why this is such big news tbh. No-one said that Italy or any other country for that matter is an 100% guarantee to suit everybody and it's absolutely fine that some people fail to find their feet after their relocation.

@PharosWatch Great work !

The Pharos Dependency Map shows the collateral connections between the stablecoins we track. Behind many of them sits USDC or USDT as collateral, mechanism, or wrapper. 50 stablecoins. 71 visible dependency edges. Almost all roads lead back to the same two assets. Understanding what backs your stablecoin is as important as knowing its yield. Pharos makes that structure visible.

Putting this out here as a sign to tap when folks respond with "things are worse today" or "middle class shrinking" or other wrong ideas they have. Everyone should internalize and have these charts as core understanding of the world today. The time price of everything has gone down over this same time frame (see Superabundance). And while the middle class might technically be smaller, that is only because the upper class is much, much bigger. And fewer of us are in poverty. Globally, and nationally. Things are better.

@polybacktest Would be interesting to see it by different regimes of vol, macro, daily trend, etc..

We ranked every Polymarket market by how random it is. One of them is broken. BTC, ETH, SOL. 5-minute, 15-minute, 1-hour. 10 markets total. We ran a statistical runs test on each one. How close to 50/50: ETH 15m: 49.9% UP. 3,004 markets. Deviation: 0.1%. BTC 5m: 49.8% UP. 18,076 markets. Deviation: 0.2%. SOL 5m: 49.7% UP. 5,230 markets. Deviation: 0.3%. BTC 15m: 50.3%. Deviation: 0.3%. SOL 1hr: 45.9%. Deviation: 4.1%. BTC 4hr: 43.7%. Deviation: 6.3%. 5-minute markets are almost perfectly random. The longer the timeframe, the more directional bias creeps in. But here's the weird part. The runs test. BTC 5m: Z-score -60.37. Extremely streaky. 30 consecutive same-direction markets happened. 245 streaks of 10+. This is NOT random. The sequence has massive momentum clustering. Every other market? Random. ETH 5m, SOL 5m, all 15m and 1hr markets pass the runs test. BTC 5m has a 50/50 split but the ORDER is streaky. UP follows UP. DOWN follows DOWN. Autocorrelation: +22.4%. Next result matches previous 72.4% of the time. ETH 15m and SOL 15m are the opposite. Slightly alternating. Previous UP predicts next DOWN. SOL 15m autocorrelation: -3.5%. Mean reversion WR: SOL 15m: 56.1%. ETH 15m: 55.3%. BTC 15m: 53.9%. BTC 5m: 28.8%. Mean reversion gets destroyed on BTC 5m. BTC 5-minute markets are momentum machines. SOL 15-minute markets are reversal machines. Same platform, opposite behavior. These are regime stats. They shift as volatility, liquidity and market structure change. But knowing which coin trends and which reverts in the current regime is the difference between trading with the structure and trading against it. If you want to perform your own backtests, polybacktest has sub second historical market data going back a month

Lfg

@Zyfai_ @goatv_bk DeFi done right. This is how you bring trust to the space

The impact of AI: We're seeing the early stages of a private credit crisis, due to AI raising questions about the sustainability of tech companies that have been heavily funded in the recent years. Even publicly traded financials like deutsche bank or partners group are at risk of massive losses because of their exposure to the sector.

Link to article: giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/ac… Partners Group sounds alarm on private credit default rates

In other words, tradfi has been looping private credit for years

I’m wondering when will the prediction markets crowd-bonding phenomenon actually make tail bets profitable

@trylimitless wait..

Would you rather choose: A 100% chance of winning $1,000,000 or A 50% chance of winning $200,000?