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Finnbar

@Finnbarian

Canada Katılım Ocak 2025
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Grizz Khan
Grizz Khan@GrizzKhan·
Don’t scared ..
Grizz Khan tweet media
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New York Post
New York Post@nypost·
Notorious Gen. Soleimani's sultry grandniece led lavish lifestyle touring US hotspots, as her mom promoted Iranian regime trib.al/y38evjw
New York Post tweet media
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Godzilla Trader 🦖
Godzilla Trader 🦖@David_Tracey·
There has never been 2 consecutive years with -20% drawdowns in the history of the S&P. Not getting the max bearishness on here. You’re literally fighting history.
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Finnbar
Finnbar@Finnbarian·
@BuckinghamWyatt His actions in his previous presidency do not indicate that. He's always favoured highly target attacks
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Wyatt Buckingham
Wyatt Buckingham@BuckinghamWyatt·
@Finnbarian Trump has been on record for 4+ decades wanting to bomb the hell out of Iran. He did it in his first term. I don’t think he needed to be dragged into anything
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Finnbar
Finnbar@Finnbarian·
@DanielTNiles Interesting read. Where I struggle is you are previewing the next 6-12 months as if there is no prolonged impact once the war is done. That isn't the case. There has been massive O&G infrastructure damage, fertilizer shortages will have a significant impact etc etc
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Dan Niles
Dan Niles@DanielTNiles·
Last wk, the 12% surge in WTI spot was offset by the 12 month futures contract dropping 6% and Brent -3%. As a result SPX/Nas/R2K/M7 were up 3.4%/4.4%/3.3%/5.1% while the S&P energy sector fell 5.3%. From a longer-term perspective, since the start of the Iran War at the end of February, WTI spot is now up 66% to $112, but the 12 month future contract is up only 11% to $70 (roughly where it was in early 2025) while Brent is up 50% to $109. This expectation of the future path of oil prices combined with tax refunds being up over 10% y/y explains much of why the S&P is down just 4% since the Iran War began. Looking forward, President Trump has said the war will be over in 2-3 weeks. Iran has also put out their terms to end the war. Though the bid-ask spread is wide but both sides are now talking. The Strait of Hormuz is the main sticking point. From a fundamental perspective as Q1 earnings season approaches, most economic data remains solid. As an example, the US March Nonfarm Payrolls released on Good Friday was strong despite all the concerns of AI leading to mass unemployment. NFP was +178K vs consensus of just 60K with the unemployment rate at 4.3% vs consensus of 4.4%. Clearly the rise in oil prices will have some negative economic impact with a lag if it stays high for a long period of time. But by the time we get into the heart of reporting season in the third week of April, according to President Trump’s most recent statements, the US should be done with the war. As a result, spot oil prices should be lower and forward looking guidance may not be as pressured. Then Kevin Warsh, who is supportive of rate cuts, should start as the new head of the Fed in mid-May. The recent decision by a federal judge that there was "essentially zero evidence" of a crime relating to the DOJ probe of Jerome Powell should clear the way for Warsh’s Senate confirmation. As for positioning, my thoughts remain roughly unchanged. Diversification is important. The R2K is up 2% YTD while the equal weighted S&P is up 1% vs the S&P down 4% and Mag7 down 12%. Even before the war with Iran, this type of position was outperforming. Through the end of February, the R2k was +6% with the equal weighted S&P +7% while the S&P was flat with the Mag7 down 7%. Asset heavy AI beneficiaries remain essential. U need to get MESI sectors (Utilities, Materials, Energy, Staples, Industrials) which are up 13% YTD on average and were up 17% YTD before the war with Iran. And finally, I believe with the emergence of OpenClaw in 2026, Agentic AI has finally arrived driving a surge of token generation of 10-100x versus chat-based AI in 2025. $NVDA and $GOOGL remain my favorite ways to play agentic AI while the server microprocessor vendors are key new beneficiaries from the increase in orchestration needed. An example of this optimism is $INTC re-purchasing the 49% of its fab in Ireland for $14.2B last week using a combo of cash and $6.5B in debt that it sold roughly two years ago for $11.2B given its cash crunch. I hope everyone enjoyed the long holiday weekend and best of luck in the week ahead.
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GaGs
GaGs@GagsTandon·
Not the best time to be a Red but one of the positives coming out of the post-match in the last few months has been getting to work with @roberts_katz - she's been fantastic to work with and been getting well deserved praise, thanks for giving us your time, Lola! 👏🏽🙏🏽
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Finnbar
Finnbar@Finnbarian·
@Milajoy Stop lying you POS. Most corrupt government in history and trying to deflect.
Finnbar tweet media
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Mila Joy
Mila Joy@Milajoy·
Stacy Abrams started a NGO and 30 days later was given $2 BILLION dollars by the Biden Administration. To date, she has not had to return a penny. Even Elon Musk talks about the obvious FRAUD. Where is our money, Stacy?
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Finnbar
Finnbar@Finnbarian·
@DaveOCKOP Every reasonable human knows this. Blame should go to FSG too, longer they keep this farce going the uglier it will get.
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DaveOCKOP
DaveOCKOP@DaveOCKOP·
I personally think it is time Liverpool looked for a new manager but I also respect what Arne Slot has achieved. Personal attacks on the man as an individual is an absolute disgrace and goes against everything YNWA stands for. Yes, he has made decisions I don't agree with and at times they make me angry but so called Liverpool fans having a go at the man as a person is absolutely out of order. I think it is time he now moves on because he cannot get the best out of the team and I don't think he can regain that belief from his players. They look disinterested and lacklustre, which is also a sad indictment on the players also. But respect what Arne Slot has achieved, wish him well (if you do want him to move on) but be respectful. That's my view anyways.
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Melanie D'Arrigo
Melanie D'Arrigo@DarrigoMelanie·
Trump’s kids buy into drone companies Trump cancels existing drone contracts Trump’s kids’ companies get military contracts Trump starts wars Trump’s kids’ try to sell their drones to the countries being attacked because of Trump’s wars 👉🏻 This is what corruption looks like.
Melanie D'Arrigo tweet media
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Finnbar
Finnbar@Finnbarian·
@jayvanbavel How are people not more furious? Tax cuts for the rich and money for the war. $12B spent for the Israelis but not for Americans. Wake up MAGA.
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Jay Van Bavel, PhD
Jay Van Bavel, PhD@jayvanbavel·
NEWS: Massive budget cuts for US science proposed again by Trump administration "It's an extinction-level event for science". The US government is proposing massive cuts to almost every branch of science, from NASA to the National Institutes of Health. NSF would completely eliminate the social, economic and behavioral sciences directorate. This would decimate the world's leading scientific system. nature.com/articles/d4158…
Jay Van Bavel, PhD tweet media
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Finnbar
Finnbar@Finnbarian·
@jaymesrosenthal Touche, I think a good tie in would to mention all these flow services. Same concept
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Jaymes R.
Jaymes R.@jaymesrosenthal·
@Finnbarian Same with most adult content, but there you are, watching it for the plot
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Jaymes R.
Jaymes R.@jaymesrosenthal·
The $135 Million Oil Short HAPPENING NOW That's Punishing Retail Traders
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Finnbar
Finnbar@Finnbarian·
@WilsonCoxLFC @_pauljoyce @David_Ornstein @JamesPearceLFC All in the payroll. Can't write against Slot otherwise lose those "juicy" details. Have some life in you and write the truth. This coach is a fucking disgrace and so are the players. Another trip on Dubai to help these fairies before PSG.
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Norseman Market Timing
Norseman Market Timing@Norseman1·
Since 1946. ..only 5. We have slow rolled and now ST bullish divergences as we neared correction territory on $SPX. Chart per @IBDinvestors You are gonna have to tell me it’s different this time until this changes. Because as of right now. It’s not. Tops are a process and it’s way too premature to say the NYSE A-D Line is signaling a major top and thus we are experiencing a bear rally. Bullish divergence with the $SPX at the high and now the swing low.
Norseman Market Timing tweet media
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Chris
Chris@StonkChris·
Imagine how tilted bears are going to be if $SPY just rips straight to $740 from here… What do you think, @SpoozDon?
Chris tweet media
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Danny cheng
Danny cheng@dannycheng2022·
The red circles highlight the bottoms predicted by Larry Williams. Are you going to sell now?
Danny cheng tweet media
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Finnbar
Finnbar@Finnbarian·
@StevenD1977 @downeytrev I think the pass for Klopp was also linked to the team. We watched them grow and transform together. Player and coach out 100% In. Whereas Slot came into this high performing machine and we know what the players can contribute vs what they are. Does that make sense?
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Ste Davies
Ste Davies@StevenD1977·
@Finnbarian @downeytrev I’ve been mulling over question some have asked about why Klopp got free passes for bad years and Slot isn’t. I think it’s largely because of all the effort Klopp made to integrate (talking politics and issues that effect us, boss nights, legends games, u21 games). He went above
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Trev Downey
Trev Downey@downeytrev·
"I love the man as a Shankly-esque transformative winner but I'm not sure I'll honestly ever understand the cult-like Jürgen worship where oul fellas like me weep over him," and THEN I remember how I feel about Kenny and think...."okay...fine, gush your emotions. Do you, lads❤️."
Trev Downey tweet media
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Moby
Moby@Mobyhaque1·
@indykaila Indy what a man he is putting Friday night plans and some nice whiskey on ice on pause to bring breaking news 🗞️
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indykaila News
indykaila News@indykaila·
🚨 LIVERPOOL FANS… HOLD ON TO YOUR SCARVES! 🔥 We’ve got EXPLOSIVE management news that’s about to BLOW YOUR MINDS! Insiders have just given us the green light… and we’re dropping the BOMBSHELL at 12am sharp! Stay glued to your screens… you do NOT want to miss this! 😱
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