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@daniel_koss This is the content I want 100% !! Thank you so much Daniel! I love to read your thought process behind it all! Nebius by far my favorite long term stock as well. Long Nebius and long Arkady!

Massive Nebius $NBIS & Macro Update I highly recommend reading the full post, even if it's a bit longer! Tried to share as much alpha and full thoughts as possible. Once you're done, please let me know if it was worth it or if I should make these updates shorter in the future! My $NBIS trade (see images and prev. portfolio update) played out perfectly! The stock is now down 10% since I aggressively trimmed my position from 75% to 20% at the exact top. If you follow me on X with notifications on, you probably noticed I made A TON of trades the last few days. Almost all went extremely well, only $KRKNF totally flopped sadly. Overall result: I now own 20% more Nebius shares than before the trade. That was all I wanted. Every time I make these trades and announce them upfront and in public, people call me lucky once it worked. Well, here's what I wrote in my portfolio update (April 15): "This might be a big surprise to many of you. Only a few days ago $NBIS was 75% of my portfolio and it remains my strongest high conviction long-term hold. But after the massive recent run I think the stock is maybe a bit overextended short-term. That doesn't really bother me, as I'm very bullish long-term. But the potential short-term overextension COMBINED with the fact that Nebius is the 2nd most volatile stock in my portfolio and clearly has the highest correlation with the rest of my portfolio means I'm trimming this position short-term. Don't be surprised if I'm soon back to being 100% in Nebius! If the stock consolidates for a bit or the rest of my portfolio just keeps running, I'll happily increase $NBIS again." That's exactly what happened. Nebius had an INSANE run and started to look extremely overextended short-term. For my taste it went up too much, too quickly and was simply too far above even the 8-day exponential moving average. I'm okay averaging up and buying stocks in strong uptrends, but I prefer slow and steady over the move Nebius made, as I saw this as a sign of either news dropping soon or the stock overheating. Since we got no news, I think the stock simply got overbought. So what now? I think we can finally start adding Nebius again! As of today it's finally around (actually below) the 8EMA again and has had over a week to digest the run. Obviously if you just look at the chart you might interpret it as bearish and think we can go lower. Definitely true. The overall market is very expensive. Valuations are CLEARLY way too high right now, compared to the reality of many of these hot stocks. This means all stocks, even high quality companies that you and I love like Nebius, could drop aggressively if: 1. We get any bad macro headlines. Iran could get worse (again...) any moment. Trump could do something crazy. We could get news that affect rate cuts or some new wild shit, who knows these days. 2. We start seeing weakness in earnings. Because expectations are way too high for many stocks, of course some narratives will pop once earnings disappoint. Because we are so stretched, I think a violent drop across all high beta stocks is very likely. So what am I doing? I am adding $NBIS back NOW! Why? I do see very high risk that this will make me a short-term bagholder as $NBIS goes down to $120-$140 on any of the bad news above. There's also this massive data center delay narrative that I think is more than just FUD. That looks like a real problem to me that could meaningfully lower Nebius' capacity by end of year. Guidance was 800MW - 1GW. I think there's a worst case scenario where we are quite a bit below the lower end, which would be a massive surprise for many of us, because we always take management's guidance as absolutely impossible to miss. To be clear: that's not my expectation, but as execution in this environment is much harder than we anticipated (I did not think social pushback is THIS big), this just seems well possible. Wait, that all sounds incredibly bearish? High valuations across the market with many bubble signs, way bigger execution risks, and potentially even delays or smaller allocations of NVIDIA's latest chip, which would be a huge decrease in how much revenue Nebius could make per MW. Everything sounds horrible, Daniel? Well... despite all of that I just see sooo many catalysts and insane upside from here, so let me give equal attention to the bull case now: 1. The data center buildout delays are across the industry! We don't know yet if Nebius is more or less hit than other companies. But if it affects everyone equally and we get 30-50% less capacity by end of year than everyone expected, that could mean compute prices skyrocket even more! Nebius' ARR is obviously a result of capacity × revenue per capacity. And ironically the revenue per capacity could potentially hit ungodly high levels, exactly because everyone is so short capacity. This is not a Nebius-only issue. 2. Compute shortage dynamics. Because of the insane compute shortage caused by agents, images, etc., the frontier labs like OpenAI and Anthropic now have a) horrible UX on their products! Everything is so much slower and dumber than it used to be only a few weeks ago. That's not just my opinion, everyone in the space is observing this right now. b) Everything is getting so much more expensive! Open-source models are simultaneously and not surprisingly making incredible progress. This stands to benefit Nebius in a huge way that cannot be overstated. As AI-native companies scale and optimize for their business, they want to get RID of Anthropic's and OpenAI's APIs. These models can change any moment, they become 100% dependent on them, and they charge massive premiums. If you can get 95% of the quality at a fraction of the price with an open-source model, you obviously switch to a provider like Nebius that will help you maximize performance to the limit! The compute shortage hurts AND helps Nebius in a weird way. 3. SpaceX / Cursor / xAI angle. SpaceX probably will acquire Cursor for $60B and go public at $1.75T. I assume they'll easily raise $100-300B via dilution / the public market. Who owns xAI? SpaceX! So there's the option that xAI, which is also insanely compute constrained, becomes a Nebius customer. I would not bet on that, since Elon likes to build everything in-house and vertically integrate. He also seems to not like Nebius for whatever reason? xD But even if there's no xAI deal, Cursor might still get access to the massive capital ($100-300B...) that SpaceX will have via the public market, and guess who's a Nebius customer? Cursor! They train their models with Nebius. And even if Elon wants to run Cursor on Colossus or stop the relationship with Nebius, that freed-up capacity would be sold in a heartbeat, potentially even at higher prices, because Cursor probably has some sort of upside cap on their pricing (the deal was made when GPU prices were still much lower). This entire part is however highly subjective speculation from my side. 4. OpenAI or Oracle (where Nebius' CRO used to work) could become a Nebius customer. 5. Anthropic becoming a Nebius customer. They seem to be the MOST compute constrained of all the players. It's a huge problem and the main limit on their growth, to a point where their entire UX is going to shit and they remove entire features from plans just to keep up. Once they release Mythos, which apparently is 10x more intense... it's only getting worse. They want to expand in Europe and Australia. I think there's a high chance IREN might be a partner in Australia, but for Europe the clear favorite is obviously Nebius. 6. Giga bull case: Nebius is within guidance of capacity AND the rest of the industry delivers significantly less capacity than expected. The execution problem is especially bad in America. In Europe it's a little easier. This means Nebius might be less affected than other AI factory builders. Same capacity x much higher revenue / MW = Nebius to the moon. 7. Geographic diversification. Nebius is building way more AI factories than other players. Many are building a couple of big sites, Nebius is working on literally over a dozen data centers right now. This means if they have issues, no matter what it is, they can be very flexible in deciding where they allocate their time, energy, capital, etc. One site is facing massive social resistance? OK, we'll focus more on the site where the city actually welcomes us with open arms to create jobs. Conclusions: I'm buying back into Nebius right now despite all the big and real downside risks, because I think technically the stock is no longer crazy stretched and fundamentally we're ready to explode, as Nebius is strategically perfectly positioned to be one of the biggest AI winners this year. If you are scared of the price up here, you can certainly wait to add at $140, or $120 if you're very conservative. Just know that it might never get there again, and if it hits $300 and you're psychologically priced out because you couldn't buy at $150, you'll kick yourself. Of course you could do a mixed approach and allocate 1/3 of your intended position now, 1/3 if it hits $140, and another 1/3 if it hits $120. OR last option: you just dollar cost average in. With the explosive growth in AI and all these catalysts I've mentioned above, personally I'm much more scared of missing future parabolic runs than of letting it fall deeper from here. My Nebius trade allowed me to accumulate 20% more Nebius shares than I used to own! But from here I think waiting for a deeper dip is gambling and no longer reasonable. Not financial advice, please do your own research :)

@daniel_koss @michaelsikand Just finished the video on my flight! The dude sitting next to me looks like Michael 😂. I would love to see more content like this! If you guys talked about your mindset and process of picking asymmetrical investments that would be sweet! Looking forward to the next video 😎🙏

Chat with @michaelsikand about: - current market - $KRKNF / $PNG.V earnings and outlook - the AI trade ( $NBIS $MU $AEHR etc.) - defense, drones, etc. ( $OUST ) - chasing hot stocks - Photonics - Investing publicly with your real name and face vs. anonymously

@babyfolio @vikinginvests No Nebius hat is a bad omen 😂

@vikinginvests Lmfao

I don't know who needs to hear this but: If you freeze when you see red, you’re not alone, but it’s something you need to fix. Some people feel unstoppable in green markets, buying everything in sight… but the moment prices drop, fear takes over and they stop adding. That gap is conviction. Without it, every dip feels like a warning. With it, it can be an opportunity. It’s exactly why many got shaken out of names like $NBIS, $IREN, $TSLA, $NVDA, $PLTR before the bigger moves. If this sounds like you, the work isn’t finding better stocks, it’s building stronger conviction.

@daniel_koss What is this? A dip for ants?

Here comes the perfect $HIMS dip buying opportunity. Amazing timing. This was 100% predictable. It's not really news. So every drop you get from this is a gift in my view.

@daniel_koss Whatever you decide, please let us know! Thanks 😎

Investors who follow my trades on Autopilot are up 43% in aggregate in less than 1 month. Cool! :) Only thing that bothers me: I'm up over 70% in the same period. Autopilot has a few rules (that make a ton of sense) to protect investors from reckless portfolios. I can NOT: - add leverage via margin or calls (did both in my personal account) - add non-US accounts, a bummer since I made huge gains with a chunky 30%+ $KRKNF position into earnings - make positions bigger than 25%, my main issue since I often run VERY high concentration up to 100% - update trades more than every 5 days, another sensical rule but suboptimal for me since I sometimes don't trade at all and other months make multiple trades a day Where should I share my full "no limits" (full degen for max gains) portfolio in the future? Substack? Or just simply on X?

@daniel_koss Let us know when the app is done or getting worked on! That sounds awesome.

Any cracked 10x engineers in my audience (now 100x with AI coding tools) down to build high-alpha finance apps for investors? DM me. Condition: Portfolio size and track record don't matter, but you must have a passion for investing yourself!

Random $NBIS fun fact: After GITEX in Dubai I joined a Nebius after party. I was very surprised by how many people there were Japanese. Talked to one Japanese guy who's company builds data centers (in Japan). Interpret this however you want.

@daniel_koss I appreciate the thought process around your trading. I'm trying to learn from an EXPERT! 💪😎 Keep moving forward!

$NBIS -5% today. Expected cooldown after this crazy run! Seems like I timed it well when I trimmed my position from 75% to 20%. Was in the full-run and trimmed before the first red day. Guess what I'm doing now? Expecting Nebius to cool down a tiny bit more and... buying back in. Yeah I'm not joking. I know this might be annoying for some of you, because the bulls hate people who don't hold through volatility and the bears think it will keep falling, so I'm really not making any friends by sharing this 😂 I once again want to repeat: I trade often. I regularly check if it increases my performance and it very clearly does. If you're a long-term investor and don't like trading, totally get it. But I will keep doing it until I find it actually decreases my performance versus just holding. I want to actively and transparently share how I manage my portfolio. I also like that documenting my thoughts, fails, and wins keeps me accountable and makes it easier to look back and see what I got right and what I got totally wrong. Today's moves: Sold $MU at +0.2% (flat) and bought back a little $NBIS at -5%. Portfolio now at NO LEVERAGE (down from 1.1x). 40% $NBIS 31.5% $KRKNF / $PNG.V 28.5% $OUST My plan is to get back to 1.1 - 1.3x leverage if the right setup presents itself. And I'm going to be specific here, just so everyone knows I'm not being vague and then saying "told you so" no matter what happens. I think $OUST is currently very undervalued and could have an aggressive run in the near future. Very obvious physical AI winner with everything you'd want from accelerating growth to increasing margins, great CEO.... long-term compounder potential. Short term massive gain potential. Just not valued where I think it should be ($40-$50 this year). Some bulls see potential for up to $80. I think that's aggressive. A +100% move seems pretty deserved without applying too much fantasy though. $KRKNF, as I've mentioned many times, is really attractive to me because over the last year it only had a 0.15 correlation to Nebius. It's also a hedge against some of the geopolitical risks that are worst for Nebius. Great hedge, and the low correlation allows me to use leverage without losing sleep. I simply can't do that with ultra high volatility and high correlation stocks. Instead of owning them, I'd rather just stick to 100% $NBIS. $NBIS remains by far my highest long-term expected upside stock. I'm extremely bullish on compute and this is my main conviction play. The honest dilemma: I just want to go all-in on Nebius, but I have to admit it's more volatile than I'd like and reacts more to AI sentiment than I'd like. That's why I won't go above 100% Nebius and also why I've started paying more attention to sentiment and even some TA (not the horoscope kind, actually useful trend stuff) to decide WHEN I buy and sell. Short term view (next few days to weeks): expecting a potentially big run for $OUST while $NBIS cools off a bit. I don't think it will crash crazy, otherwise I obviously wouldn't already start building my position. Then something like 90% $NBIS / 40% $KRKNF.

Trump just said this. Here we go.

@ArrowCK @daniel_koss Smart move

@daniel_koss graphic is sick, adding based on that alone 😤

Here's my updated (base case) valuation model for $KRKNF / $PNG.V for end of 2026 after earnings: 2025 reported revenue: $74.6M USD 2026 estimated revenue post-merger: $362.5M USD -> 386% YoY growth Massive, even if a majority is acquired, not organic. Worth mentioning this is on of the strategically most sound acquisitions I've ever seen. It just makes too much sense to improve their combined moat and holistic offering. My assumptions for 2026: 58% gross margin 370.2M diluted shares 10x EV/Sales base-case multiple Why 10x? Because I think Kraken is becoming a rare public-market proxy for maritime defense tech. The key drivers: 1) expanding Anduril partnership (proxy) 2) Anduril’s ambitious plans around Taiwan (actual orders ramping up) 3) rising demand for mine hunting after the Strait of Hormuz escalation 4) increasing orders from European and Middle Eastern defense contractors 5) planned TSX uplisting in 2H 2026 6) stronger strategic positioning after the merger In a full hype scenario I can easily see 15-20x. Very high probability we'll get there. I'm using 10x for my base case. Even on that base case alone, I get to roughly 51% upside from the current share price until end of year. What makes Kraken especially attractive is that it has had very low correlation, around 0.2, to AI infra names like $NBIS, while potentially benefiting from the same Taiwan-related geopolitical risk that could hurt many AI stocks. For a portfolio heavily exposed to the AI capex thesis, that makes Kraken a very interesting diversifier. Not financial advice. Please do your own research ;)

@daniel_koss That's it. I'm unfollowing and gonna just use Scam Altman's gpt. To the moon! 💰 🚀

Nooo, is it already over for human investors? ChatGPT outperformed me last 5days! 🥲 At least 60% of ChatGPTs portfolio is 2 stocks I also recommend at their recent bottom: $NBIS + $CRDO Bring it on ChatGPT, let's see who does better full year 2026 :P Hope you don't hallucinate too much 😜

@KawzInvests Thanks, I'll check them out. 😎

@Flowing_Nature Interactive Brokers has the lowest foreign equity fees I have seen for US retail, worth looking into.

The rotation into CPO names is inevitable. From what I am reading, it may be coming faster than most expect. Soitec $SLOIF up 10% today. It is the only company on earth supplying the substrate TSMC, GlobalFoundries, STMicro, and Intel use for silicon photonics at volume. There is no second source. Every pluggable transceiver shipping into AI data centers today uses 50mm2 of it. Every CPO engine uses 200mm2. Same monopoly. 4x the content per device. The CPO market goes from essentially nothing today to $15 billion by 2030 (263% CARG). Soitec's Photonics-SOI revenue is already approaching €86 million in FY26 growing 25% annually. That is before the CPO ramp. We published a full breakdown of where Soitec sits in the CPO supply chain and what the content step-up means for the next two years. Link in reply. $SOI $TSEM $MRVL $LITE $COHR $AAOI

@aleabitoreddit I haven't scooped up any of your picks just yet, as I am either too late or it's a foreign stock to the U.S. You're carrying to underclass from Zaun to Piltover.

Yep… How did I call out and long. FIFTEEN DIFFERENT STOCKS. 8+7. 9+6. 10+5. After $ALRIB, the $MSFT Quantum supplier went up 113%, that hit 15 different longs. That returned Triple Digits year to date??? No paywall, and I've posted everything before it moved. Hard carrying retail out of the permanent underclass.

@ParadisLabs @michaelsikand Thank you! I do follow Michael as well 😀

@Flowing_Nature @michaelsikand better positioned to help - go through his posts!

It's wayyy too early to be investing in Robotics. Even if they can sprint as fast as Usain Bolt and wield dual MP5K's instead of hands. ETFs like $BOTZ ($3.2B aum) or $ROBO ($280M aum) are just marketing wrappers bloated with legacy industrial firms + startups with no path to profitability. $TER semis revenue rose to $883M on AI compute demand. But its Robotics segment contributed only $89M and cut 400 jobs last yr. Says a lot that leaders in the space need to restructure to account for the hardware lag. Then you've got $ABB spinning off its robotics division since its 12% margin drags down the group’s 18% average. So you know it's serious when the world's largest automation players exit hardware to protect profitability. ​Humanoid ASPs remain at $200k+, while mass utility requires a drop to $50k-$75k - a target projected for 2050...not this decade, let alone 2026. ​AI infrastructure spend is crowding out the capex needed for a robotics boom. It's pretty obvious that the alpha rn lies in the AI supply chain, not Robotics and well-marketed ETFs.

@Samdanawich @moninvestor I want to come back to this comment in 5 years 😂

@moninvestor I can’t believe IREN is finally superior to the company that rents its power supply, makes mediocre software, and pizza delivery robots

What a day. After all that hate, $IREN has caught up to $NBIS. This is just the start.

@daniel_koss Great stuff! Thank you for the transparency once again. 😎

Portfolio update: YTD +112% Current portfolio: $NBIS 76% $OUST 18% $MU 16% $KRKNF / $PNG.V 16% (over 100% because leverage, don't do that pls). Went 1.2x long when Fear & Greed was at like 8 or 9. Increased it to 1.3x on the day Trump announced a deal would happen. Ah btw @strifenstray99 and @babyfolio can vouch I actually caught the bottom with leverage. I will always ONLY share my trades and never my leverage plays, because I don't want to inspire or motivate anyone to use leverage, I actually highly recommend to NEVER use leverage. I only do it because I'm a greedy idiot. You really shouldn't do it. Every time I use leverage my stress goes up so much that I tell myself "never again". It feels like an addiction and might actually take some years of my expected lifespan because of massive stress. Trying to be 100% transparent about this. Ok, think that was a strong enough warning lol. I stayed disciplined while everything was dumping, but when we were in such extreme fear with so many quality stocks being down so freaking much and it became so obvious that this sitution would deescalate sooner or later, I felt like it's time. Also really like SK Hynix, but don't like the current options of owning it. Would add on US ADR listing. Also think $TE has really good upside, but after updating my risk score for $TE after the recent earnings, my system doesn't let me own $TE, because I square the impact of risk on my risk-score, which essentially kills all high-risk bets immediately if they don't offer 2-3x the expected return of other opportunities. Last but not least I really like $DLO and am very tempted to add a position if I ever want to reduce my direct US exposure in the future. I know they are listed in the US yadayadayada, but if you follow the stock it's been pretty clear they don't correlate as strongly as many of the AI plays I like (duh).

@daniel_koss Thank you for that information, good to know. I have a large list of stocks I need to research this week. I am new to analyzing asymmetrical stocks. I got Nebius as 30%+ of my portfolio since Jan 2026, so that's good! 3x+ returns sound good to me haha

@Flowing_Nature Honestly haven't looked too much into both of them, just know last time I checked they looked way too expensive and like a 10x is no longer possible. I usually only look at stocks I think can at least 3x in a year.

Adding more $OUST today!