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SNP leader accepts the independence dream is over
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For Scotland's Sake
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For Scotland's Sake
@ForScotlandSake
On Scotland's place within the UK - Voted NO in 2014 - Against nationalism in all guises - For community across the UK
Scotland, United Kingdom Katılım Haziran 2016
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🧵🧵THREAD 🧵🧵
Why the latest Lord Ashcroft poll is not good news for Scottish nationalists.
Please read and share.
For Scotland's Sake@ForScotlandSake
Lord Ashcroft poll shows independence is simply NOT a top priority for most voters. The tables show: - Only 24% of likely SNP voters list independence as a top issue - Only 12% of likely Green voters do - It doesn’t appear in the top three issues for the electorate overall
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Hi @JoshHousden Ashcroft’s poll uses a non‑standard 0–100 scoring method that can inflate support for smaller, highly motivated parties. Combined with Holyrood’s sensitive seat model and the lack of BPC oversight, the SNP/Green projections may be exaggerated. Handle with care.
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@JackJar82934013 @JoshHousden @LordAPolls I forgive you. The point remains. The Ashcroft poll is not really what it seems. Dig deeper and the picture is not rosy for nationalists.
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🏴 Scotland | Holyrood seat projection based on @LordAPolls polling
🟨 SNP: 66 (+2)
🟩 GRN: 19 (+11)
➡️ RFM: 15 (+15)
🟥 LAB: 12 (-10)
🟦 CON: 9 (-22)
🟧 LDM: 8 (+4)
+/- vs. 2021 election
🗓️ Fieldwork: Feb 20 - Mar 6, 2026
🗳️ Upcoming election: May 7, 2026
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@ForScotlandSake @JoshHousden @LordAPolls You mean you hope it's not because your going to cry if it is 🤭.
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The Ashcroft poll is interesting, but easy to misread. Independence isn’t a top issue for most voters, only a quarter think a pro‑independence majority is a mandate, and the headline Yes/No split is 40–43. Some questions are framed in ways that can shape responses.
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Ashcroft's poll asks:
“What would the result be if a referendum were held tomorrow?”
“What would the result be in five years?”
These are speculative questions. Respondents answer them, but the answers don’t reflect actual voting behaviour. They reflect mood and imagination.
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Lord Ashcroft poll shows independence is simply NOT a top priority for most voters.
The tables show:
- Only 24% of likely SNP voters list independence as a top issue
- Only 12% of likely Green voters do
- It doesn’t appear in the top three issues for the electorate overall
Josh Housden@JoshHousden
🏴 Scotland | Holyrood seat projection based on @LordAPolls polling 🟨 SNP: 66 (+2) 🟩 GRN: 19 (+11) ➡️ RFM: 15 (+15) 🟥 LAB: 12 (-10) 🟦 CON: 9 (-22) 🟧 LDM: 8 (+4) +/- vs. 2021 election 🗓️ Fieldwork: Feb 20 - Mar 6, 2026 🗳️ Upcoming election: May 7, 2026
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The Yes/No numbers are not what the headline suggests
Ashcroft’s poll shows:
- Raw: No 43%, Yes 40%
- Excluding DK/WNV: No 52%, Yes 48%
People will quote the 48–52 figure as if it’s the main result. But the actual headline number is the 43–40 split.
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@CAILEAN_UK There are good reasons not to trust the headlines of this poll. The pollster is not a member of the British Polling Council. They do not have to be transparent in their methodology.
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Given what ex-FM, Sturgeon, put the country through, including bringing the disastrous Greens into government, and now with Swinney at the helm, I despair of what the future holds for Scotland if the SNP and Greens are leading the polls. Wake up Scotland.
Josh Housden@JoshHousden
🏴 Scotland | Holyrood seat projection based on @LordAPolls polling 🟨 SNP: 66 (+2) 🟩 GRN: 19 (+11) ➡️ RFM: 15 (+15) 🟥 LAB: 12 (-10) 🟦 CON: 9 (-22) 🟧 LDM: 8 (+4) +/- vs. 2021 election 🗓️ Fieldwork: Feb 20 - Mar 6, 2026 🗳️ Upcoming election: May 7, 2026
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@JoshHousden Ashcroft may have released tables for this poll, but he isn’t bound by BPC transparency rules. With non‑BPC pollsters, you only see what they choose to show which is why their numbers should always be treated with
more caution.
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@ForScotlandSake Data tables can be downloaded here
lordashcroftpolls.com/2026/03/the-re…
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As wild as this is, barring any future updates from Lord A, we're at least only a month and a bit away from finding out how on/off the mark this is
Other pollsters don't have SNP leading the constituency vote by nearly as much
Josh Housden@JoshHousden
🏴 Scotland | Holyrood seat projection based on @LordAPolls polling 🟨 SNP: 66 (+2) 🟩 GRN: 19 (+11) ➡️ RFM: 15 (+15) 🟥 LAB: 12 (-10) 🟦 CON: 9 (-22) 🟧 LDM: 8 (+4) +/- vs. 2021 election 🗓️ Fieldwork: Feb 20 - Mar 6, 2026 🗳️ Upcoming election: May 7, 2026
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@InvernessTop @LeftieStats @LordAshcroft You're a fantasist. Explaining political hopes isn’t the same as explaining a legal route. Holyrood elections don’t create automatic constitutional powers, and pretending they do doesn’t change the framework.
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@ForScotlandSake @LeftieStats @LordAshcroft Sigh. *Explains the political circumstances that will lead to a referendum.
You: "This isn't a constitution!?!?"
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🗳️ Holyrood | Poll points to SNP majority 😲
🟡 SNP: 67 seats (+3)
🟢 Grn: 18 seats (+10)
➡️ Ref: 18 seats (+18)
🔴 Lab: 11 seats (-11)
🔵 Con: 8 seats (-23)
🟠 Lib: 7 seats (+3)
My estimate based on @LordAshcroft poll
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Dates: 20 Feb-3 Mar (+/- vs '21)
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% figures in reply
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And if you can’t see the methodology or the weighting, you can’t judge how representative the numbers really are.
Lord Ashcroft's polling organisation is NOT a member of the BPC. Their polls lack transparency and therefore are uncheckable. 2/2
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IMPORTANT: Polls vary hugely in quality. Some follow strict transparency rules, publish full data tables and allow scrutiny. Others don’t. When a pollster isn’t a member of the British Polling Council, you can’t see the methodology or the weighting. 1/2
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@JoshHousden Before anyone gets carried away: Ashcroft’s polling outfit isn’t a member of the British Polling Council. That matters. Without BPC rules, he doesn’t have to publish methodology or data tables. And without transparency, you can’t judge the quality of the numbers.
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*Disclaimer - Lord Ashcroft polling isn't a member of the BPC
🔗 lordashcroftpolls.com/2026/03/the-re…
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To everyone getting excited: Ashcroft’s polling outfit is not a member of the British Polling Council. That's important. Ashcroft does not have to publish methodology or data tables. Without transparency, you can’t judge the quality of the numbers.
Josh Housden@JoshHousden
🏴 Scotland | Holyrood seat projection based on @LordAPolls polling 🟨 SNP: 66 (+2) 🟩 GRN: 19 (+11) ➡️ RFM: 15 (+15) 🟥 LAB: 12 (-10) 🟦 CON: 9 (-22) 🟧 LDM: 8 (+4) +/- vs. 2021 election 🗓️ Fieldwork: Feb 20 - Mar 6, 2026 🗳️ Upcoming election: May 7, 2026
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