Freelunch

Dismissing technology is easy. Seeing its promise and seizing it is hard. Those who said ‘SELL’ $NVDA didn’t miss a step. They missed the vision. Seek wisdom over noise. Truth lasts, clickbait doesn’t. We need more compute!

It is not that different. NVDA doesn't sell GPUs. They sell an AI factory. ASML doesn't sell a lens, but they sell a chip factory. The problem is not in scaling. This is an attractive feature for ASML. The problem is a difference in skilled entrepreneurship and execution. It is a cultural and strategic problem for ASML.

@FreeLunchOrNot @dylan522p @dwarkesh_sp EUV machines still on a whole other level compared to AI-Infra servers/GPUs. Unfortunately, they can't scale supply-chain that fast.

🌐 ✅ 📈 🚀 👇 ICYMI: 2h+ rant by @dylan522p explaining how $ASML remains THE single most important company in the world ... and why EUV will become a huge bottleneck based on current AI-compute build out targets Great interview again @dwarkesh_sp youtu.be/mDG_Hx3BSUE?is…

@shanaka86 Off course it will end at a certain point. Why keep on fighting when you are no longer paid?The degration will only increase. A decentralized organisation will need leadership and rewards to continue.

Who gives the order to stop? Ali Khamenei is dead. Killed in the opening strike on February 28. Ali Larijani, the diplomatic negotiator, is dead. Killed March 17. Esmaeil Khatib, the intelligence minister, is dead. Confirmed March 19. Gholamreza Soleimani, the Basij commander, is dead. Killed March 17. Roughly 40 senior officials have been eliminated in nineteen days according to aggregated Israeli and Iranian reports. Mojtaba Khamenei was named Supreme Leader successor. Reports indicate he was airlifted to Moscow in the opening days of the war. No confirmed public appearance from Iranian soil since. The supreme leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran may not be in Iran. The question is not whether Iran is governed. It is whether anyone currently in Iran has the authority to order the Mosaic Doctrine’s 31 provincial commands to stand down. The IRGC was designed for this scenario. Total decapitation. Conventional forces shattered. Central command eliminated. The Mosaic Doctrine distributes authority to provincial commanders who operate on sealed pre-war instructions. The packets contain operational orders: which vessels to permit, which to deny, which infrastructure to target, which forces to deploy. The orders execute when central command goes silent. Silence is the activation condition, not the failure condition. Every leader killed removes one more person who could have countermanded the orders. Khamenei could have commanded a ceasefire. He is dead. Larijani could have negotiated terms. He is dead. Khatib could have redirected intelligence toward de-escalation channels. He is dead. Mojtaba, who inherited the authority, may be in Moscow. The regime now operates on three autopilots simultaneously. Doctrinal autopilot: the sealed packets in 31 provincial command rooms execute without central direction. The Hormuz permissioned gate, the retaliatory strikes on Gulf infrastructure, and the targeting of allied energy facilities all continue on pre-written instructions that do not require a living superior to authorise each action. Military autopilot: the IRGC’s remaining missile and drone inventory is being expended according to targeting packages that were prepared before the war. Shekarchi’s “burn to ashes” warning was not an improvisation. It was the public announcement of a pre-existing operational schedule. The satellite images published with coordinates of Gulf facilities were not threat assessments. They were targeting data released for psychological effect. Political autopilot: the government continues to function through institutional inertia. State media broadcasts funerals. Diplomatic statements are issued. But the decision-making authority that could alter the course of the war, negotiate a ceasefire, or order a stand-down is either dead, in Moscow, or distributed across 31 provincial offices where the local commander’s sealed envelope supersedes any verbal order from a capital in disarray. Israel’s AI-powered targeting apparatus can find any face in Tehran through hacked traffic cameras. It can eliminate any senior official within minutes of identification. It has degraded 90 to 95 percent of Iran’s missile production. It has killed the intelligence minister, the negotiator, the Basij commander, and dozens of others. What it cannot do is reach the paper in the filing cabinets of Bandar Abbas, Bushehr, and Hormozgan. The question the world should be asking is not who runs Iran. It is whether anyone left alive has the authority to stop what Iran’s dead leaders set in motion. The answer may be that the system was designed so that nobody can. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

Equal weight forward valuation is just north of the range while big caps are more expensive. Probably because of the high growth rate and strong balance sheets. Growth might even accellerate with the planned CAPEX and AI productivity growth.

@elonmusk GDP will be 10x, so don't worry 😉

If this continues, America goes de facto bankrupt and all tax revenue will go to paying interest on the national debt with nothing left for anything else.

@firstadopter Grok also struggles

Claude has been unusable for a week. Buy more GPUs Dario

@MarioNawfal China doesn't have oil.... US fleet can block it immediately

🇨🇳🇹🇼 China’s window for a play on Taiwan may be opening. Would that spark a World War? A new analysis warns Beijing is closely studying the U.S. war in Iran and planning its next chess moves. With U.S. weapons stockpiles draining and forces stretched thin, some believe China now sees a “use-it-or-lose-it” window to act in the Indo-Pacific. The fear is a significant blockade of Taiwan or even strikes on Japan, using lessons learned from the Iran playbook. If China makes a move while the U.S. is tied down in the Middle East, all hell could break loose… Source: 19FortyFive

@ChainLinkGod Without burning the link coins, buying back only transfers the coin to a new holder but it is not accretive to the value of the coin.

Chainlink uses protocol revenue to fund $LINK buybacks Ripple sells $XRP to fund Ripple stock buybacks One flows value back to token holders The other extracts value from token holders to drive value to shareholders Notice the difference?

@dailychartbook @coatuemgmt No y axis

"The rate of innovation is faster than anything we’ve seen before!" @coatuemgmt

@zerohedge The most dumb x post of today, congrats

It appears the market no longer buys ridiculous forecasts

@michaelsikand youtube.com/watch?v=vUe4ET… NVDA is doing a lot of quantum research. AI will accelerate quantum development. NVDA might be more focused on a breakthrough in the next 3-5 years.

@FreeLunchOrNot I think photonics has a chance to get quantum level attention for actually doing compute

Memory, chips, and power aren't AI's biggest bottlenecks. It's copper. So Nvidia invested $4B in this instead. In this video, I break down photonics. The problem, the solution, the stocks and why this could be the NEXT quantum. $AAOI $COHR $LITE $TSEM $AXTI

@zerohedge Most dumb post of the day! Congrats.

Europe getting ready to side with Iran

@wauwda Most trend following trading systems are based on this logic. Everybody who read a book on TA, will know this.

@FreeLunchOrNot Somehow even though this is so logical and simple, most will miss it 🫣

Last bear market I used the 12D MACD to accurately predict the bottom of $BTC I looked into the prior bear market bottoms using the 12D MACD and RSI and found something interesting 👇🏼 > When the 12D MACD crossed bullish, the bottom was already in with a 100% hit rate so far > When the 12D RSI reached these levels, the bottom was already in or one lower low > The time between the 12D RSI reaching these levels and the 12D MACD crossing bullish, is around 3-5 months Meaning? Right now we have the lowest 12D RSI reading of all cycles, so the bottom is already in or we can expect it between April - June Wauwda out 🫡

@wallstengine Is somebody picking up the phone?

IRAN'S FOREIGN MINISTRY SPOKESPERSON: MANY SHIPS CAN STILL PASS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IF THEY COORDINATE WITH THE IRANIAN NAVY, PER MEHR.

@wallstengine Compute is everything

$ORCL CEO WHY DC DON’T NEED TO BE NEAR POPULATION CENTERS, YET: “Inferencing is very rapidly growing everywhere and anywhere... it’s because of higher and higher utilization of the models themselves and also new use cases... inferencing is going to have a huge amount of demand.” “If what you’re doing is asking a question for your business, it’s going to take an AI model several seconds to think about it... an extra 40 milliseconds of latency from New York to Wyoming is not going to hurt you.” “The latency problem right now is not actually the location of the hardware. It’s the type of hardware that’s being deployed, and that’s why you’re seeing so much innovation around these AI accelerators.” “If you look at what Groq does, or Cerebras, or Positron, all of these different types of companies are saying not only how do we reduce the cost of inferencing, but also how can we significantly reduce the latency of it.” “That makes it much more flexible for us to put data centers where power is abundant, land is plentiful, and we can optimize for what’s available to meet this ever-increasing demand.”

@neilksethi The rest of the market has been incredible stable....

$GLW Corning has been up or down at least +4.7% six of seven days this month (and it moved 1.9% the other day).

@OphirGottlieb How is Iran going to export oil to China now?

We've gone from "the US navy escorted a ship through the Strait of Hormuz" to "Iran is lining the Strait with mines." I'm sure all of these headlines are double and triple checked for accuracy. 🙄

@jsblokland All private credit funds will be gated. Bad luck for retail. They will have to ait thia out. What about the life insurance companies. Their exposure will face some write downs.

Just published: The Contours of a New Credit Bubble Is the private investment fairytale about to pop? Our latest newsletter: bloklandfunde.substack.com/p/the-contours… Don't forget to subscribe (totally free, of course.)