Freestyle Trader

@GavMcCracken Only needs to be 1 manipulator with a lot of resources. That can keep prices irrational for quite some time, especially in the illiquid overnight session - the question is, how long?

There are LITERALLY VLCCs, which stands for "very large crude carrier" sinking in Hormuz, while on fire, and the oil price is selling off. That's it. I'm done. Fuck all you idiots on wall street.

@MarioNawfal Very clear analysis, thanks @Matt_Bracken48! Every American who mindlessly repeats "Finish the job!" should be required to watch this interview!! 😁

Anyone who thinks a ground invasion of Iran is a serious possibility needs to watch this... Matt Bracken is a former Navy SEAL and spec ops veteran, and he just delivered one of the most sobering comparisons I've heard yet: Kharg Island is the size of Iwo Jima, where the U.S. pounded the island with battleships for WEEKS before landing 70,000 Marines... and still lost 7,000 lives and had 19,000 wounded in a single month. Qeshm Island is bigger than Okinawa, which took 3 months and cost 12,000 American lives. Iran has had decades to tunnel these islands, study U.S. tactics, and prepare for precisely this scenario, and unlike Japan in WWII, they have precision missiles that can reach every inch of the Persian Gulf. "If we went into Iran, I think we will lose everybody we send in, the more we send in, the more we lose, and the Iranians have been very open about saying, come on in, we welcome you." Matt ended by saying rationality is out the window, and that this started with a February 28th sneak attack, so nothing should be considered off the table. Great talking to you, @Matt_Bracken48

@StealthQE4 If only McGregor was on Trump's advisory team!!

Sunday night reality check. We’re down to a few weeks folks:

Iran is inclined towards patience to move slowly up the ladder - the US is the one pushing the escalation. Iran leadership has said that they haven't gotten to their most advanced missiles yet - seems simply uninformed to say that Iran has overplayed its hand, most in the West continually underestimate Iran.

For all the talk of “Iran is overplaying their hand”, I disagree entirely. I think they’re UNDERPLAYING their hand. During the U.S./Iran War, the most significant lever Iran has to pull is that of the global energy markets. In the initial days of the war, a significant amount was taken off the global markets. And then the East/West Pipeline was utilized. Then the Red Sea was used to reroute. Then the U.S. (dangerously) implemented the Omani Route. But the whole time, Iran has been under significant bombing, a blockade, or the combination of the two directly intended to devastate their economy in the hopes that this economic suffering will result in mass public unrest and regime change (… right…) With that said… the inflation rate in Iran is abysmal. The Rial has hit its lowest point to the USD in history. And Iran’s ability to import and export goods has been significantly diminished. And yet… the Bab al-Mandeb remains open. And yet… the Port of Fujairah remains active. And yet… the East/West Pipeline continues. By no means does Iran have incentive to wreak havoc on their neighbors that… will still be their neighbors after the war. But “overplaying their hand” insinuates that the United States can DO anything about it if they escalate. They can’t. Iran is at greater risk of UNDERPLAYING their hand and letting this war linger unnecessarily than they do from escalating aggressively to bring the United States to make the necessary concessions. In the best case, they thread the needle and escalate justttt enough… but it’s certainly not an “overplaying” situation here.

@BrettErickson28 So if Iran doesnt take the bait and doesn't get bluffed into a bad deal? What does Trump do then?

While it is entirely possible that we DO see significant escalation in the Iran War over the coming days, everything that the United States is doing would be EXACTLY what one would do if they were trying to bluff Iran into a bad deal knowing very well the United States has a limited timeline. Moving aircraft into theater, conducting bombing campaigns to emulate shaping operations, striking civilian infrastructure without actually doing it at scale, leaking communications to indicate willingness to escalate... The United States simply DOES NOT have a long timeline for this war. Trump himself stated that in four weeks, there would be "bedlam". Nothing has notably changed since then. Could this be legitimate intent to escalate this conflict? Absolutely. ... But it also looks EXACTLY what I would expect from a United States desperate to bluff Iran into a favorable deal for the US knowing very well they don't have the timeline or willingness to escalate further.

@AnthonyGalli @martyrmade @ComicDaveSmith Hey @grok - when the Omani Foreign Minister came on that Sunday talk show excited to share some breakthroughs that he thought could lead to avoiding war, what breakthroughs did he talk about?

That's funny - do you recall that the Omani Foreign Minister came onto a Sunday talk show just days before Trump /Israel launched their suprise decapitation strikes? He was excited about some breakthroughs and thought war could be avoided. Do you recall what Iran had offered then? Here, let Grok remind you:

Joe, you’re great, but how can even reasonable people like you say, “Sure, we launched a surprise attack in the middle of negotiations on behalf of a foreign power and have been bombing civilian infrastructure for months, but that doesn’t mean Iran gets to shoot back.” We attacked them, the President repeatedly has threatened to end Iranians’ historical existence as a people, and they have every right to use the means at their disposal to defend themselves. I’m a veteran, I don’t like saying this, but it’s the truth. I mourn the US servicemembers, but Iran didn’t kill them - Trump and Netanyahu did.

@WeTheBrandon But also remember, small biz owners aren’t always doing so great either- there are plenty of stories of small businesses around for many decades going out of business. Stories are mixed for sure.

Hopefully, courage is still contagious.

@WeTheBrandon Ridiculous but unfortunately not surprising. Keep up the good work! Your message is getting out there!

Apparently, for the last several weeks/months, there has been a massive campaign to deboost my Twitter account by having accounts mass-block me, mute me, report me, etc., for merely expressing legitimate criticism of the war and the Trump administration's ghastly handling of it

@StealthQE4 Probably now that things are clearly not working out as planned, they’re looking for scapegoats so pushing this idea out to the masses

Who didn’t know this was happening? They’re just figuring this out now?🤦‍♂️

@mysticamused @martyrmade Exactly what interests of ours are being served by getting dragged into this war?

@martyrmade We still have to take our own side, tho. It does us no good to sympathize with Iran beyond when doing so is in our own interests.

Trump killed their leaders with decapitation strikes during negotiations, threatened to annihilate their entire civilization, and presided over an attack of a girls school. You think Trump is bending over backwards to appease them? He may have signed a bad MOU to slow down the Iranians, but he clearly had no intention of honoring it.

Even if I make something up I expect it to be included! But seriously... Trump has bent over backwards to appease the Iranian regime. He wants the fighting to stop in order to get oil prices down before the midterms. June 17–19: Hezbollah (Iran’s ally) attacks in Lebanon, including an explosive device killing an Israeli soldier on the day of signing and further strikes days later. June 20: Iranian forces announce the Strait of Hormuz closed or restricted to only Iran-approved routes. June 25: Iranian drone attack on the commercial ship Ever Lovely (near the Omani coast, on a non-Iranian-designated route), the first clear post-MOU strike on shipping. US strikes followed in response the next day.

@Jkylebass @mattvanswol How do you know that some of the GCC countries, and possibly Israel, won’t experience catastrophic loss first? That is really a risk you think is worth taking?

@mattvanswol Very important for you to understand the strategic landscape. Iran (specifically the IRGC) has 700+ launchers and over 2,000 ICBMs left. The moment they launch, 🚀 we eliminate the launcher. Iran will experience catastrophic loss as time moves forward. War is ugly. 🇺🇸

I'm confused. The USA has the most powerful military on Earth. We've bombed the HELL out of Iran for 4 months. Trump says their Air Force, Navy, and nearly all of their missile capabilities are destroyed. ...so how is Iran still capable of hitting US bases right now???

First part is true - most of the network is deep underground in bases that cannot be damaged by even the largest bunker-busters. 2nd part - 90% degraded, is entirely untrue. Just propaganda to make you think this next stage should be won easily. Unforunately this is extremely misleading and many people are likely to get more confused and surprised as events unfold. Good luck to us all.

@mattvanswol Because Iran designed much of its missile-and-drone network precisely to survive a stronger enemy’s air campaign through concealment and decentralization. 90% degraded ≠ eliminated every survivable weapon before it can be fired. It's a tricky one for the US military.

@mattvanswol BECAUSE YOU ARE BEING TOLD LIES!

@BrettErickson28 There is nothing logical about this war - starting it was a mistake, now escalation is a bigger mistake. Trump isn't walking away, apparently he gave the order to "unleash hell" on Iran.

Because my goal on X is to simply tell the truth, here it is: The United States should walk away after the death of these two servicemembers. This isn't working. The war has failed. Iran still holds overwhelming advantage. This doesn't change that reality. We don't "need" to retaliate. The death of these two servicemembers is a tragedy. It is disgusting that they died for essentially no reason whatsoever, fighting a war of choice, at an ill-defended base. But that is not a reason to let purely emotional thinking override obvious realities. The reality is that Iran can escalate in a far more severe manner than we can. The reality is that there is incredibly low support for this war. The reality is we are not going to launch a 500,00 troop land invasion of Iran. The reality is we are cornered. Making emotional decisions that will only make matters worse is not the right choice. The right choice is to end this conflict.

Yes @HormuzLetter - the entire hub is 90% of the economy, but apparently the North Pier facility only handles a small portion of that - the large majority goes through other parts of the complex. So Iran is apparently being calculated, slowly moving up the ladder while giving the US/GCC a chance to back down. Seems like only a few more days of this limited escalation left before more serious damage can occur - let's all hope saner heads prevail and escalation stays limited.

BREAKING: Iran has struck the Kuwait National Petroleum Company North Pier crude oil export facility at the Mina Al Ahmadi hub in Kuwait, with the facility on fire and smoke visible on Sentinel-2 satellite imagery. Kuwait relies on this hub for 90% of its economy.

@NotoriousKDE @imetatronink They’ll have a hard time against drones and missiles raining down on them

@imetatronink lol. Sacrificial? They'd fuck up anything sent against them.

As much as I consider it unmitigated madness, the US appears to be attempting to isolate Bandar Abbas from its interior lines of communication, strongly suggesting the Pentagon is entertaining serious plans to insert a sacrificial ground force to "seize" the Strait of Hormuz.

Seems a flaw in the US system to allow a single person in the role of president to be able to make decisions that could be so harmful to the US and the global economy. The power of declaring war or launching strikes that effectively amount to war really should be given back to the Congress, but doesn’t seem like that’s on the agenda anytime soon.

@sam566773923209 Yes but he’s the PRESIDENT! How can he be this stupid?!

The recklessness it would take for President Trump to move forward with bombing Iran’s economic and civilian infrastructure is astounding. By every rational assessment, he would be utterly insane to do so. Not only does Iran hold overwhelming escalation dominance, but it would directly hurt the very people Trump claims to want to help. Beyond this, it would see Iran devastate the Middle East, with only the United States to blame. On one hand, I hypothesize that this is nothing but a bluff, but on the other… it really doesn’t look like a bluff…

Trump did seem pretty convincing when he said he didn’t want to be the next Hebert Hoover. So at least it does seem to cross his mind that blockading the Strait and attacking Iran in ways that would cause it to retaliate and harm the global economy might be something he wants to avoid. Very hard to know what sort of advice he is getting - unfortunately, with Susie Wiles as chief of staff, she may be filtering out opinions that are not pro Zionist. We shall see. Good luck to us all.

@csfellz Oh 1000%. I just thought Trump… honestly I don’t know wtf I thought