Ari Sass

1.6K posts

Ari Sass

Ari Sass

@FullySynergized

I like adjusted, pro forma, fully synergized, constant currency, non-GAAP EBITDA and MF DOOM.

New York, USA Katılım Haziran 2017
1.4K Takip Edilen8.8K Takipçiler
Ari Sass
Ari Sass@FullySynergized·
Probably an unpopular view but a lot of CEOs are too active in the conference circuit. Would much rather see them focused on their business than investor communication where the marginal value dwindles rapidly after the first fireside.
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Ari Sass
Ari Sass@FullySynergized·
@bucketshopcap Feels like geopolitical risk-induced degrossing on crowded pairs
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Bucket Shop Capital
Bucket Shop Capital@bucketshopcap·
I actually think in this case someone may have blown up.
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Bucket Shop Capital
Bucket Shop Capital@bucketshopcap·
This is the most disgusting market I’ve seen in a while. Completely unhinged price action.
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Ari Sass
Ari Sass@FullySynergized·
exuberance: proforma non-GAAP EPS, adjusted FCF, price/sales fear: trough GAAP EPS, FCF minus SBC, price/book minus intangibles
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Ari Sass
Ari Sass@FullySynergized·
@pmje73 💯. I’m saying I’ve observed many times where PM’s “loving their book” was largely a function of how it recently performed which is dangerous.
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Paul Enright
Paul Enright@pmje73·
@FullySynergized Wrong. Re-read what wrote. You are misreading it. If you have poor trailing returns but are really happy with your investments you will be happy. If you have poor trailing returns and don’t love your book, don’t think you are seeing the bal well you will be miserable.
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Paul Enright
Paul Enright@pmje73·
Your happiness as a public market investor is always a function of your trailing 3 month performance plus your optimism for the next 3 months. IYKYK.
The Transcript@TheTranscript_

Druckenmiller: "...I would literally like throw up like once or twice a week, just from anxiety when I'd have a drawdown and so forth. And at some point in my career, I learned that you're going to continue to make mistakes, you're going to continue to get emotional. You're going to continue to have that happen from now and then. But you've got a gift. And just stop torturing yourself for like 48 hours or maybe longer over this because you've been doing this long enough and the record is there long enough that it's no longer like random accident, which I did not believe for like 15 years. So the hard lessons have been like hundreds of mistakes, but that they're just a moment in time. And when you have these drawdowns and if there's money managers listening to this and you're good, it's easier said than done. Just get over it and move on"

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Ari Sass
Ari Sass@FullySynergized·
Don't get me wrong I really like $CLH, but if any software company guided the way they did, it would've been met with bloodshed. One of those rare market moments where being an asset-intensive, manufacturing-sensitive industrial is actually the place to hide.
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Ari Sass
Ari Sass@FullySynergized·
I’m sure tons of junior programmers are feeling anxious right now. But millions of SMBs with no engineers will need dedicated technical help to harness AI. This isn’t just displacement, it’s a new necessity for many.
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Ari Sass
Ari Sass@FullySynergized·
If AI makes coding cheap and features copyable overnight, isn’t this actually a good setup for fast-following incumbents with high switching costs, regulatory moats, and products deeply embedded in mission-critical workflows?
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ZissouCapital
ZissouCapital@ZissouCapital·
@FullySynergized Jobs report good means lower chance of rate cuts so CRE trx stay slow. Or maybe CBRE is just SaaS now
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Ari Sass
Ari Sass@FullySynergized·
Did a new AI real estate service company launch today or something? $CBRE $JLL etc
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Ari Sass
Ari Sass@FullySynergized·
$CHRW a pretty good early case study on an enterprise w/ troves of data using AI to gain market share and generate operational efficiencies/margin expansion.
Ari Sass tweet media
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Ari Sass
Ari Sass@FullySynergized·
I don’t know who actually reads our quarterly letters front to back but I’m highly confident that I get the greatest value from writing them. It forces me to revisit prior beliefs, provides structure and coherence to months of random and incomplete thoughts, and enables the team to better understand ideas and concerns that I may have poorly communicated previously in more informal settings.
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Ari Sass
Ari Sass@FullySynergized·
@michaeljburry Your framing is inconsistent. You can’t effectively mark SBC dilution to market but value share repurchases (at far lower prices) at historical cost.
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Cassandra Unchained
Cassandra Unchained@michaeljburry·
Since the beginning of 2018, NVDA earned about $205B net income and $188B free cash flow, assuming all cap ex was growth cap ex. SBC amounted to $20.5B. But it bought back $112.5B worth of stock and there are 47 million MORE shares outstanding. The true cost of that SBC dilution was $112.5B, reducing owner's earnings by 50%. /rant
Cassandra Unchained tweet mediaCassandra Unchained tweet media
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Ari Sass
Ari Sass@FullySynergized·
@TihoBrkan No one owns these stocks based on 2010s-era theses anymore. The opportunity set has evolved dramatically and the TAM they’re pursuing is vastly larger. Nothing wrong with an evolving thesis as the facts change.
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Tiho Brkan
Tiho Brkan@TihoBrkan·
Do you remember when Google, Facebook (now Meta), Microsoft, and Amazon were considering capital-light businesses? $GOOGL $META $MSFT $AMZN In the mid-2010s, Warren Buffett described how these businesses basically required no capital to run, and generate insane amounts of free cash flow. That was probably the initial reason you invested in them, right? However, as the situation has changed, you’re probably rationalising it these days. The most common cognitive habit of investors is to interpret all disconfirming and contradictory information so that it confirms your original thesis and stance. That is formally known as confirmation bias, and its allies are rationalising, justifying and if that won’t suffice, ignoring and disregarding. To combat confirmation bias, John Maynard Keynes famously asked, “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” Full disclosure: we are still (reluctantly) very long both $GOOGL and $AMZN.
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Keşfet

@bucketshopcap @pmje73 @modestproposal1 @ZissouCapital @TMTMoats @UpslopeCapital @lhamtil @elonmusk