Gregory Chassapis

GE Vernova ($GEV) is quietly flying under the radar this year. Curious to see which comes first: 1) Stock split (forward) 2) Spin-off of the wind business A spin-off is more likely to come first, unless management is looking to improve liquidity and attract retail investors.

There are two things going on here that are worth mentioning: 1) Domestic auto manufacturers are hurting. Both GM and Ford have reported declining/flattening revenues YoY and sank a lot of cash into EV programs that proved unsuccessful, requiring write-downs. Government revenue would help. 2) The defense industrial base is very inadequate relative to envisioned "readiness." Whether or not one believes the United States is preparing for expanded conflict zones, military leaders have actively campaigned for increased readiness and domestic production of critical munitions and other necessary technologies. globalmarketnews.com/from-cars-to-c…

Had the privilege of attending @CNBC 's Invest in America Forum in Washington, D.C. this morning. The event was timed perfectly alongside one of the more consequential backdrops for a business conversation in recent memory. A few themes that stood out from the various individual and panel discussions: 1) The domestic investment boom is real, yet still early. @USTreasury Secretary Scott Bessent opened the day making the case that trillions flowing into U.S. manufacturing, AI infrastructure, energy, and technology represent the beginning of a structural shift, not a cyclical blip. His view: deregulation, tax certainty, and America First trade policy are combining to make the U.S. the world's premier destination for capital. 2) AI ROI is still the central debate in tech. The panel featuring @Gary_D_Cohn (@IBM), @renehaas237 (@Arm), and John Stankey (@ATT) was one of the day's most candid conversations that acknowledged that questions around workforce disruption, supply chain resilience, and the actual return on AI investment are very much live. The pledges may be historic, but the execution challenges are equally significant. 3) Industrials are navigating a complex environment. @MichaelDell detailed how @Dell Technologies is leaning heavily into AI infrastructure, while David Burritt (@U_S_Steel), Jenny Johnson (@FTI_US ), and Raj Subramaniam (@FedEx) offered views of the macro headwinds facing legacy industrials, among which were tariffs, supply chain reconfiguration, and tightening in the labor market. Scott Strazik (@GEVernova) discussed powering it all and Marc Rowan (@apolloglobal) discussed the impact of Private Credit in its build-out. 4) Geopolitics is reshaping capital allocation in real time. UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves made a compelling pitch for the U.S.-UK economic relationship as a genuine strategic partnership (particularly around AI and clean energy) and framed trade policy as an opportunity rather than a constraint. 5) And in perhaps the most unexpected but genuinely interesting session of the day, @FIFAcom President Gianni Infantino argued that this summer's World Cup is itself an inflection point for U.S. soft power, investment, and global brand positioning. He also touted the opportunity for the sport to grow in the United States- a market that represents just 3% of the sport’s total revenue. Overall, a morning that reinforced something I think about a lot: the gap between the narrative driving equity prices and the operational reality remains wide. Policy tailwinds are strong, but execution risk remains real. Grateful to CNBC and @SaraEisen (who was a great moderator) for convening such a timely and substantive conversation.

From shoes to AI. The Allbirds announcement tells you all you need to know about the current market.

Not the typical post from this account, but no less important given the ongoing geopolitical turmoil. Summary of Section 4 of Jamie Dimon's Annual Letter to Shareholders, "Critical Issues Facing America and the World": Reigniting the American Dream demands policy boldness across the board. U.S. GDP has averaged just 2% growth over the last 20 years. We could have hit 3%, which would have generated an extra $20,000 per person annually, while funding solutions to nearly every major domestic challenge. The path forward requires cutting fraud and waste, reforming broken mortgage and permitting rules, eliminating regulatory overreach, doubling the Earned Income Tax Credit, rebuilding an education system laser-focused on job outcomes, and passing long-overdue immigration reform. On the global stage, America should pursue a sweeping transatlantic free trade deal with Europe, binding Western democracies together economically and geopolitically against rising autocracy. Europe's slow economic decline is a tectonic threat no one can afford to ignore; a stronger Europe is directly in America's self-interest. Underneath all of this are the values embedded in the Constitution: equal opportunity, free enterprise, personal responsibility, and an unwavering commitment to democracy. Without strong American leadership, there is no credible alternative. If not us, who?

85%. That's the percent by which shipbuilding production in the United States has fallen since the 1950s. The good news is that there are a number of companies currently working on this. The bad news is that if an "exquisite" Naval asset gets hit, it can take months to repair it. This is a numbers game, and the numbers don't look good right now.

The NASA section of the budget is particularly interesting since NASA has suggested spending smarter, not more. Lunar is clearly a priority, and the increased funding (coupled with cuts in other areas) means that the agency is serious about its 2028/29 Moon target (a full year ahead of China’s stated goal of establishing South Pole presence by 2030).

Very telling. Iran War and other conflicts are likely to put upward pressure on these figures as munitions need to be replenished and new platforms continue to scale. Source: Aviation Week Defense Market Analyzer

If the thesis surrounding Space evolves as it should, most publicly-traded space companies should significantly re-rate in the next 6-12 months. Since most contracts that are of any significance will fail to generate meaningful cash flow by the time the short term money gets washed out, it is very unlikely these valuations hold up for very much longer.

As Artemis II prepares to launch, it presents an opportunity to revisit a piece Hephaestus Intelligence published in December on Improving the Economics of Space Exploration. A new model is emerging: one driven by efficiency, innovation, and scalable infrastructure. While companies like SpaceX continue to push the envelope and dramatically reduce costs, today's launch signals a renewed ambition beyond the private sector to extend humanity's reach and progress toward a Kardashev II civilization. The mission is symbolic. The opportunity is structural⬇️ thehepfund.com/post/improving…

Energy isn’t just a policy debate or engineering challenge. It’s the foundation of economic growth, geopolitical power, and human progress itself. From coal and oil to nuclear and renewables, every major leap forward has come from expanding access to reliable energy. But today’s energy conversation is often shaped less by technical limits and more by politics, perception, and competing interests. The newest piece from Hephaestus Intelligence addresses what solving the modern energy problem could mean for society going forward ⬇️ thehepfund.com/post/the-moder…

Absolutely amazing conversation between Scott Galloway and @PeterZeihan. Further making the case as to why this war can, and will, fundamentally alter the geopolitical landscape and, by extension, the politics of energy. Highly recommend. youtube.com/watch?v=xx5Nb_…

Legacy OEMs are hurting. Writing was on the wall a while ago, but this is slowly becoming extremely apparent. VW, Porsche, Ford, GM, Honda…all have had to backtrack on EV plans. Things will get worse as EVs get cheaper and infrastructure begins to scale to truly ubiquitous levels.

Oil markets are once again being reshaped by geopolitical risk. As this volatility exposes the fragility of fossil fuel dependence, I explore why the current crisis may paradoxically compress the risk premium on renewable energy investments, thus strengthening their role as core pillars of both energy security and long-term investment strategies. Read all about it in a new note from Hephaestus Intelligence ⬇️ thehepfund.com/post/geopoliti…

Monday's worrisome statistic: According to the U.S. Navy, China's shipbuilding capacity is over 200x greater than that of the United States. In 2024, China built over 1,000 commercial vessels. The United States built eight.

Cheap power, prime location, and tremendously accommodative terms meant that the UAE quickly became one of the largest beneficiaries of investment dollars from American tech firms. Then the #Iran war hit. Iranian drones started hitting AWS data centers in the region and undersea internet cables in the strait of Hormuz are vulnerable targets in a hot zone. AI growth in the region just got a lot riskier. Expect higher costs, delays, and a rethink on putting so much compute in one volatile spot. Trillions were riding on stability that simply isn't there anymore.

It is becoming increasingly clear this war is likely to continue into the second half of the year. The conversation (finally) now starts to shift back toward inflation, which is likely to head north rather than south. That will have implications for asset prices, and an upside push will result in a downward repricing of some sort in equity markets. All else equal, no cuts. Position accordingly.