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From Seth Klarman's 'Margin of safety'. Pretty much sums up this market @LanceRoberts @TheBubbleBubble @GlobalProTrader @MarkYusko @jtepper2
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Greg
23K posts
Greg
@GS_CapSF
Equity Analyst + Macro Trader, hobby economist & humble market student.
Either SF or NY Katılım Ağustos 2014
1K Takip Edilen15.4K Takipçiler
The secondary market for privates (mainly via SPVs) is getting a bit frothy.
OpenAI secondary price +6% vs last round/tender
Stripe = +8%
Databricks = +15%
Polymarket = +40%
After commissions of 4-5% & fund fees the cost basis for these range 15% to 45% above the last round/tender.
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This is just hilarious. Literally SuperMicro written on the box. $SMCI
bone@boneGPT
DEVELOPING: Chinese entrepreneur boasts receipt of 200 NVIDIA H200 GPUs in Beijing despite US export ban, explains how he circumvents export ban 🧵
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Also easier to win when you’re competition is engaged in espionage
The Transcript@TheTranscript_
$MS analyst while talking to $DELL CFO: "Again, I look across my coverage, nobody is doing what you're doing in terms of AI servers. So where does the secret sauce come from for you guys?"
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Does this mean AGI has been achieved or an IPO is incoming?? #OpenAI $AMZN
LiveSquawk@LiveSquawk
$AMZN | Amazon To Invest USD50 Bln In OpenAI
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@marcjoffe @whollera How about instead of spending money on a pointless study we allocate it towards building a new bridge. There’s literally chunks of steel falling off the Richmond bridge.
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@whollera Why shouldn't they pay? We expect people taking AC Transit across the Bay Bridge to pay irrespective of whether they have a bike. How is this different?
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Caltrans will spend the next 2+ years studying the equity implications of the Richmond San-Rafael bike lane which was serving a few dozen riders on most weekdays. Those riders now get a free shuttle ride over the bridge while drivers pay an $8.50 toll.
marinij.com/2026/03/14/ric…
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@davidsgamage @joshrauh Except that those billionaires aren’t coming back….
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@joshrauh The CBTA is thus roughly equivalent to a 1% annual tax for five years plus an interest charge. There is no plausible justification for them to model responsiveness to a 5% permanent annual ongoing tax. 3/
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Our response to the @joshrauh et al. revenues estimates of the California Billionaire Wealth Tax Act (CBTA) has now been posted: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… In short, their estimate relies on many false claims about CA law and the CBTA and is completely implausible and dishonest. 1/
Hoover Institution@HooverInst
If California’s problem is spending, not revenue, would the proposed “Billionaire Tax” solve anything? Hoover Senior Fellow @joshrauh breaks down the math around California’s $93 billion deficit. Read Hoover research on the impacts of the tax proposal: hoover.org/news/californi…
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$NVDA trades at 16x 2027 EPS
I guess investors a) don’t believe these numbers despite Jensen continuing to deliver results b) wanted a number well above $1 trillion.
Meanwhile investors are willing to pay 200x P/E for $TSLA which hasn’t delivered on any AV promises.
tae kim@firstadopter
Don't be a buyside dum dum. Use some critical thinking skills and your brain. The more than $1 trillion order visibility through 2027 number Jensen said is for "right now where I stand." That leaves 21 more months to add more orders. $NVDA Nvidia
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@David_J_Bier @DanielDiMartino In that case just 50x immigration, deficits solved!
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Weeks after claiming our report finding immigrants reduced deficits by $14.5 trillion over the last 30 years was impossible, Manhattan Institute's @DanielDiMartino publishes an immigration calculator showing doubling immigration would reduce deficits by $11.3 trillion....
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Wait does this mean $NVDA and Jensen are going to cut off the memory makers like $MU and Samsung and SK Hynix out?
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I would love to be proven wrong, but TeraFab will need a lot more than $20B in CapEx.
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@debora_allen1 @SFBART @DominicJPino @PostOpinions Thanks for this. Can you explain why it’s appropriate for BART to pay dozens of employees more than $400k in total compensation and ask the public who make far less on average to foot the bill?
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I'll try to help. Below is FTE headcount data from their Annual Comprehensive Financial Report. It includes Operating and Capital actual filled positions. This is very different from "budgeted". As you can see their FY20 headcount went up 225. Between FY19 and FY25, overall headcount increased 7%. The problem with this chart is that it includes their capital budget FTE's, but all the narrative around BART's budget hole is focused on operating only. The increase in headcount for operations only from FY19 to FY25 was about 10%, while ridership was down more than 50% during the same time.
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The Bay Area Rapid Transit system's labor costs rose by $150 million between 2019 and 2024.
It used all that extra money to complete 73 million fewer trips.
@PostOpinions looks at the financial death spiral of public transit in the Bay Area. 🧵
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This is why you don’t have healthcare btw..
it’s not trans people
it’s not undocumented migrants
it’s not refugees
this..
BRICS News@BRICSinfo
JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 US war with Iran has now cost an estimated $21,000,000,000 since strikes began.
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We are happy to discuss inflation, remote work, system expansion, and adding more cleaners and police staff.
Our operating budget grew at a rate less than inflation even while adding two new station to expand service into San Jose.
Our funding model was the gold standard in the industry but it is no longer sustainable with the Bay Area’s adoption of remote work. We provide a public service and we are not for profit.
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In 2023 over 2/3rds of people wouldn’t pay a premium to own shares of OpenAI at a $20 Billion valuation. That investment was >10x from there.
I don’t think people understand the opportunity set for inserting an intelligence layer across trillions in economic value. I’m still going to say it’s UNDERVALUED despite the $830B post-money valuation.
x.com/gs_capsf/statu…
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Do you think that OpenAI, Anthropic, and other foundation model companies are undervalued or overvalued? What's your rationale?
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