Andrew Freedman, CFA 🦅

Yup. Just shooting from the hip, Choco...

@SamofAmerica @KeithMcCullough Glad we added $PANW and security stocks to the long side in February as part of our agent layer research paper and industry dive!

The machine did a great job catching the signal strength on all these security software stocks a couple of months ago Since then they have been on fire - the market views them as AI winners On $GS, they had blowout trading revenues and the banking business will be very strong this year Will be a tough comp next year, but that’s a career away!

Sam @SamofAmerica , you know my machine likes your $PANW pick - how about this Goldman $GS move? Still like up here?

All good, bro. Another CNBC story stock for monkeys with cool cars $LCID

@RPKent @HedgeyeIndstrls Is filing for bk still bullish for stonks?

We are going private... or going away. Stay tuned! @HedgeyeIndstrls

it’s surprising to me how many people seem to not understand that great models are built with super high quality curated data finding novel ways to create / get this data is a huge edge

lol this place man…

@HueyHuston @CoorsLightCEO ….

@CoorsLightCEO @HedgeyeComm The average consumer has no clue what the fuck a meta AI spark is but apparently we’re all idiots because we don’t agree OpenAI isn’t going to make it to IPO lol

The replies are pretty telling...

@HedgeyeComm I mean you start off by saying “if OpenAI crumbles” then play semantics “I said ChatGPT not OpenAI!”. And no, you work at Hedgeye, so you’re not doing anything right.

OpenAI is worth a lot less today than it was before $META released muse spark 1.1 If Meta is successful, wouldn't be surprised if OpenAI crumbles and never makes it to IPO...

$HCA pre-announced negative this morning and guided 2026 ranges lower. 2Q26 missed excluding catch up FL payment. The headwind from #ACA is worse as we went though yesterday. Higher Medicaid Supplemental money is a low quality patch. Surgical trends are terrible.

@RHouseResearch lol if that’s all you got I’m doing something right

@HedgeyeComm Smarter than the guy whose boss screamed about "Quad 4" for years during a raging bull-market, for sure.

Thanks, Choco... I've been called worse by better... Also, congrats on your use of a ruler and Microsoft paint... Impressive.

Disagree on the Meta take… I was bearish Meta on open source strategy and llama… The pivot was the right one and they have made significant progress in the past 9-12 months… I don’t see how you can argue otherwise. Also, the “people” and talent density argument is overrated at this point… once you have a frontier model, other factors start to matter a lot more.

Think about it from this perspective. $META has thrown a ton of resources at trying to compete with the top two labs and is coming up short. Their hiring spree is in reverse with key talent leaving to go back to OAI & A\ despite handing out huge pay packages. I’ve been told they have a culture problem and poor leadership in AI. xAI is distilling off of the leading labs which musk admitted in court. They don’t have sufficient demand to keep DC utilization high so now they are selling capacity.

@RHouseResearch I said ChatGPT, not OAI ARR. You seem super smart though… I’m sure you understand.

@HedgeyeComm OAI ARR went from $20B to ~$40B+ in the first 5-6 months of the year.. And is likely accelerating as we speak.. Gemini is definitely the real issue for OpenAI though. Certainly not uh, Anthropic.

@corleonecapital Agree. I’m most excited to see how Meta leverages its social graph and context (ecosystem density + distribution)…. into 1) a personal AI agent and/or 2) developer ecosystem.

The bull base for OAI is, codex and Claude code have a data flywheel that, if it continues, could lead to RSI and put them ~permanently in the lead, or at least act as a springboard to innovations that become moats bc they get there first, like AI UI. I wouldn’t over discount that outcome. Claude code and codex are the fastest growing businesses in history by a long shot, with high gross margins. Google has been trying and failing for about a year with antigravity. That can be a real issue for meta and Google, if that growth continues and they don’t truly catch up on coding. I agree with you that SpaceX having cursor is a huge deal bc it gives them the data flywheel and they have tons of compute, and now cursor talent. Grok 4.5 was proof of how powerful that data is for post training a coding model. I think Gemini 3.5 pro will be a signal. If they can’t release a real deal coding model within antigravity and take significant developer share from those two, that’s a big deal imho. Idk what’s gonna happen, but it’s sure as hell gonna be interesting to watch it play out.

@RHouseResearch Pretty clear that Gemini put a lid on ChatGPTs growth trajectory...

@HedgeyeComm Just like Google buried OpenAI in cheap Gemini tokens, right?

@corleonecapital Also this Apple legal case against IP theft looks pretty damaging against OAI… Track record on execution remains poor… not just like normal mistakes and pivots, but like structurally broken.

The market for Enterprise/Coding is a lot different than the Consumer/Mass… I don’t see how OAI can keep its share and compete long term against Meta and Google there… So then the question becomes if you zero out the consumer business what is OAI worth? And then can OAI continue to win in enterprise and coding? Cursor now vertically integrated with Grok… Meta and Grok were largely not considered part of the race 3-months ago…

@GS_CapSF @corleonecapital I’m talking about the next 12-months. You are talking about the last 12-months. In terms of access to compute and scale, and pace of improvement - seems pretty obvious to me where the probabilities are shifting. SpaceX also has Cursor, which is a big deal IMO.

What are you guys talking about?!? Codex users have gone from 1 million to 7 million in 5 months. ARR from $25B to $40B in 6 months & that includes re-writing rev share agreement with $MSFT. They launched on $AMZN AWS & they have the best model right now. It’s actually embarrassing for $META & $SPCX they released their best model and they lag OAI & Anthropic models that were released a while back. We’ll see what $GOOGL does but it’s a two horse race.

@corleonecapital New Google pro model coming out... Just a different release cadence. Between Google, Meta and Apple - have a hard time seeing where the opening is for OAI long term. Anthropic still has best shot IMO.

@HedgeyeComm Would imagine Google’s gonna run that playbook too, once they get their shit together.