Gas Alpha

#NatGas #GWDD

#NatGas Mar 28 – Apr 06 00z 4-Model Consensus: 130.2 GWDDs 03-26 00z → 03-27 00z GFS▲ 13.6 COLDER IFS▼ 1.6 WARMER GEFS▲ 3.9 COLDER AIFS▲ 4.4 COLDER GasAlpha.com

This is the inside of an LNG cargo tank on a modern LNG carrier. It may look like a metallic maze, but every layer is carefully engineered to safely contain gas at -162°C. Most modern LNG ships use the Gaztransport & Technigaz membrane system, where the tank is built directly into the ship’s hull using a layered containment system rather than separate spherical tanks. In the heart of this system is the primary containment. This is the layer that directly holds the LNG. It is made from thin corrugated materials such as stainless steel or Invar (a nickel-steel alloy). The corrugated design is critical because it allows the material to expand and contract under extreme cold without cracking or failing. It’s a cryogenic material because LNG is extremely cold. Behind this sits the insulation system, which is what is most visible in the image. These are prefabricated insulation boxes made from materials like reinforced polyurethane foam or perlite-filled panels. Their role is to minimize heat entering the tank and maintain the extremely low temperature required to keep the gas in liquid form. Next is the secondary containment system, which acts as a backup safety layer. In the unlikely event that the primary barrier fails, this layer prevents the LNG from reaching the ship’s hull. It is typically made from composite materials such as Triplex, combining aluminum foil and fiberglass for strength and impermeability. There is also a secondary layer of insulation that adds further thermal protection and structural support, ensuring stability throughout the voyage. All these layers sit against the ship’s inner hull, which is shielded from the extreme cold. Without this protection, the hull steel would become brittle and unsafe. In simple terms, the primary barrier holds the LNG, the secondary barrier provides backup protection, and the insulation keeps everything cold and stable. What you’re looking at is not just a tank, but a highly engineered cold containment system that makes global LNG transportation possible.

@ShaleAnalytics Agreed.

Trump's 5-day pause + ECMWF warmth shift + confirmed injection season are overwhelming the structural LNG premium. Downward bias to $2.78–$2.90 range likely if next EIA hits high end of consensus. #natgas

#NatGas #GWDD GasAlpha.com

#NatGas Mar 22 – Mar 31 00z 4-Model Consensus: 133.0 GWDDs 03-20 00z → 03-21 00z GFS▲ 3.2 COLDER IFS▼ 16.0 WARMER GEFS▼ 0.3 WARMER AIFS▼ 1.4 WARMER GasAlpha.com

Most aggressive oil surge in history.

#NatGas Mar 21 – Mar 30 00z 4-Model Consensus: 136.6 GWDDs 03-19 00z → 03-20 00z GFS▼ 9.5 WARMER IFS▲ 22.9 COLDER GEFS▲ 3.4 COLDER AIFS▼ 4.4 WARMER GasAlpha.com

$LNG 👀

@ShaleAnalytics @CelsiusEnergyFM Can send you code for whatever you’re trying to accomplish just DM

I want to make sure I am getting the right data. "The differences come from EIA data revisions. The EIA regularly revises its historical storage numbers (sometimes by 5-10 Bcf) after initial reporting. Our system pulls the current revised figures from the EIA API, while Celsius Energy displays the originally-reported numbers at the time of release:"

For today’s EIA #Natgas Storage Report covering March 7-13, I am projecting an out-of-season +30 BCF injection, 59 BCF bearish vs the 5-yr avg & the single largest build for the week in the last 5 yrs.

@ShaleAnalytics @CelsiusEnergyFM Then the rest is how you want to weight the different variables

@ShaleAnalytics @CelsiusEnergyFM The street is saying +23 to +42 BcF injection. Mine falling outside of that range +63 BcF probably a bit high, working on refining prediction models everyday. Best you can do is constantly pull and refresh what they are feeding up until the number.

@ShaleAnalytics @CelsiusEnergyFM Pulling the data is the easy part. Deciding how you want to incorporate gwdd lng historicals etc into your model is where it gets tricky. All depends how simple or complicated you want to make it

@ShaleAnalytics @CelsiusEnergyFM I pull my data through an API, store in SQL database, and then it automatically runs through my projection model. Let me know if I can help out

Prompt $3.17. Jan-27 $5.45. Ras Laffan just took a missile. Winter 2026 will be interesting. #NatGas

$LNG +10%. Europe still needs US LNG. Asia still needs US LNG. Cheniere still has the infrastructure. Math hasn’t changed. #NatGas $10B buyback on a $57B company at 11x earnings. They’re buying back stock cheaper than almost anything in the S&P. Gasalpha.com

@Andercot Physical gas is cheap and only going lower into shoulder season.

#NatGas Mar 19 – Mar 28 00z 4-Model Consensus: 145.2 GWDDs 03-17 00z → 03-18 00z GFS▲ 2.5 COLDER IFS▼ 20.6 WARMER GEFS▼ 2.6 WARMER AIFS▼ 18.0 WARMER​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ GasAlpha.com

Shoulder season approaching, weather fading as a catalyst. +9.9% YoY surplus (+168 Bcf) We have far more gas than last year. Injection season could run aggressively above 5-yr pace once weather normalizes. If there’s a bid, it’s an LNG story — eyes on Iran/Qatar.

#NatGas Mar 18 – Mar 27 00z 4-Model Consensus: 154.9 GWDDs 03-16 00z → 03-17 00z GFS▼ 25.2 WARMER IFS▲ 2.5 COLDER GEFS▼ 15.3 WARMER AIFS▼ 5.1 WARMER gasalpha.com