Geoff Wilson

THANK YOU ALL for stopping the crazy tax on UNREALISED GAINS.

@gnoble79 Wise words George

Private credit didn't blow up because of Blue Owl or bad software loans or AI disruption. Those were SYMPTOMS. The disease is the same one I've seen 3 times in 45 years on Wall Street: Too much money, too much leverage, too little discipline, and a financial product sold as "safe" to people who didn't understand what they owned. Private credit grew to $3 trillion on a simple lie - that you could earn 9-10% yields with "semi-liquidity" on assets that have no liquid market. That's not investing. That's volatility laundering. And the Street dressed it up beautifully. "Private credit." Sounds so exclusive, so sophisticated. Illiquid loan sharking would be more accurate. And don't get me started on "private equity", another Wall Street rebrand designed to make LEVERAGED BUYOUTS sound like fine wine. They changed the name because the old one scared people. The risk didn't change. Just the marketing. Wall Street has always been brilliant at one thing: rebranding risk as exclusivity and selling it to people who don't know what they're buying. Now add oil at $113 a barrel and watch the whole thing come apart. The Strait of Hormuz is shut. The IEA is calling it the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. The Fed held rates steady yesterday and the market just RIPPED AWAY expectations for even a single cut this year. Oil is the fuse. But the TNT was packed years ago. Oil above $100 means inflation stays sticky. No rate cuts. Every overleveraged borrower inside these private credit portfolios gets squeezed harder every single month. Interest coverage ratios deteriorate. Defaults tick up. Valuations get marked down. And when valuations drop, the leverage stacked on top of that leverage (the "back-leverage" that banks provide using those same loans as collateral) starts to unwind. And JPMorgan already started. They marked down software loan collateral and restricted lending to private credit funds. When the biggest bank in America pulls back, that's a SIGNAL. High-yield spreads just surged to 470 basis points. The widest in years. Credit markets are screaming what equity markets haven't fully heard yet. I've watched this exact pattern before. - Junk bonds in the '80s - Dot-com leverage in 2000 - Structured mortgage products in 2007 The product changes every time but the architecture never does: Wall Street creates something complex, sells it as safe, layers leverage on top, markets the yields to retail investors, and collects enormous fees on the way in. Then something breaks and the gates go up. The people who built the machine are fine - they already got paid. The people who bought the brochure are trapped behind locked doors. $265 billion in market cap already wiped from the major PE firms. I don't think we're close to done. And you know what? That's FANTASTIC. Perhaps we'll finally get some real price discovery. Just say no to mark to model. Holders of this fine merchandise will get the returns they deserve. The pension funds, endowments, and insurance companies that piled into this garbage should take the hit. No bailouts. NONE. This nonsense has gone on far too long and moral hazard is the predictable result. The only way to end this insanity is to let Mr. Market operate. Allow price discovery. Allow bankruptcy. No more money printing. No more crony capitalism. No more extend and pretend. Blow it all up. That is the only way. "But what about the individuals who get hurt!" Better to take the hit now and reset than continue down this road. Hyper-financialization is destroying our economy and enriching the fortunes of the few. This must stop. NOW. But I have little confidence it will. We'll get more of the same: Rule changes. Special accommodations. The inevitable big ease will come. Count on it. AND BUY GOLD

Scenarios: $5B $PSUS raise scenario: • $2.8B private → ~16.8M PS shares distributed • $2.2B public IPO → ~8.8M PS shares distributed
→ Total free PS to investors: ~25.6M shares (~6.4% of 400M).
Kicker still 10.5% (public) / 15.75% (private) per $ invested. $10B $PSUS raise scenario: • $2.8B private → same 16.8M PS shares • $7.2B public IPO → ~28.8M PS shares distributed
→ Total free PS to investors: ~45.6M shares (~11.4% of 400M).
Higher raise = more dilution for pre-IPO owners, same % kicker per dollar.

What are you getting? The kicker mechanics: Public IPO investors : Get 20 PS shares per 100 PSUS shares bought ($5,000 invested). At $26.25 PS price → free PS worth $525 → 10.5% bonus on your PSUS investment. Private placement pre IPO get a better deal : 30 PS shares per 100 PSUS → 15.75% kicker at same price.

What is the new @PershingSquare IPO worth? Congratulations @BillAckman . We @WilsonAssetMgmt bid for stock in your last one. Help me out with any errors:- dual structure: PSUS (closed-end fund) at $50/share + “free” shares in the manager Pershing Square Inc. (PS). PS valued ~$10.5B in 2024 (10% stake sold for $1.05B) → ~$26.25/share on 400M shares post-conversion. $249M 2025 net income > to $349M to $449M depending on $$ raise and assuming no cost ~42× trailing PE and 30x to 23.4x (no performance fees) . Premium for permanent capital + PSUS growth potential.

@gnoble79 Great work George. It’s brilliant that you do this. Making some of the world’s best ones available to everyone. Thank you

The Best Stock Summit was INCREDIBLE yesterday Truly grateful and proud of what we were able to do 7 hours of actionable and HONEST value from 15 top investors The replays will be available at 5 PM EST today for everyone who booked a slot If you weren’t able to register for the event but still want access to the full replay, you can grab it below for a limited time: noble-capevents.com

@LivewireMarkets @WilsonAssetMgmt A must read

What if investment fees could fund real social change? The Future Generation Women Fund is backing top managers while tackling inequality. livewiremarkets.com/wires/this-fun…

Looking forward to seeing you today ( 5 hours time)

@Slobodan88 @BillAckman It’s a variation to @BillAckman’s other structures have been used in Australia attaching value to LICs

@GeoffWilsonWAM @BillAckman Wait, which Aussie LICs gave away free manager equity at launch? Genuinely curious because bundling the fee engine with the fund feels different than just an IPO + fund combo. Was it the same 20% gift ratio or structured differently?

Today, Pershing Square Inc. (PSI), an alternative asset management company, filed to go public along with Pershing Square USA, Ltd. (PSUS) a new closed ended investment company managed by Pershing Square.    In the combined offering, investors in the IPO of PSUS will receive shares in PSI for no additional consideration. For example, if an investor buys 100 shares of PSUS in the IPO, they will receive 20 shares of PSI at no additional cost.    I explain the transaction in detail in a letter that can be found here:   sec.gov/Archives/edgar… [sec.gov]   The prospectus for PSI can be found here:   sec.gov/Archives/edgar… [sec.gov]   And the prospectus for PSUS can be found here:   sec.gov/Archives/edgar… [sec.gov] The PSI and PSUS Registration Statements have not yet become effective.  The securities described therein may not be sold, nor may offers to buy be accepted, prior to the time the Registration Statements become effective.  Before you invest in the combined offering, you should read the Registration Statements for more complete information about the PSI, PSUS, and the combined offering.

@Slobodan88 @BillAckman It’s been done in Australia a nuyof years ago.

This is one of the most creative capital structures I've seen in years. Bundling a management company IPO with a new closed-end fund and giving investors free equity in both? Ackman just turned the traditional asset manager playbook upside down. What's your take on getting 20 PSI shares free with every 100 PSUS shares?

@LivewireMarkets A must

Anna Milne (WAM), Arms Rosenberg (Minotaur) and Chanel Stuart-Findlay (Plato) on the themes shaping markets and how they pick future leaders. livewiremarkets.com/wires/3-top-fu…

An excellent conversation. Thank you David and the the fund managers 🙏🙏🙏

@FutureGenInvest Looking forward to seeing you all

Register for the $FGX FY2025 Q&A Webinar: globalmeet.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?… We'll be joined by @GeoffWilsonWAM, Lee Hopperton and Matthew Kidman (Centennial Asset Management) to discuss our full year results, latest investment insights and answer shareholder questions. #FGX #Webinar

@balumbah @T2Rugby Always happy to help

@T2Rugby Fabulous opportunity for the 3 nations to show how they have developed from past experiences the competence for good governance. This will be a critical condition of any development capital. Invested wisely this could be a perpetuity fund for PI Rugby Union. @GeoffWilsonWAM

🇦🇺 Australian government (again as part of geopolitical strategy) considers $150m over 5 years to Pacific Islands in Union. Last week in the news was large sum given to League.

@MarkDiStef As explained Mark. Botanical is a $1 company with no assets and acts as the trustee for the Wilson Asset Management Equity Fund. Look at all our substantial notices

@GeoffWilsonWAM Botanical Nominees has one shareholder, Geoff Wilson. Unless you’ve forgotten to update ASIC records?

The IPO of Firmus stands to be the biggest in Australia this year. One of the the largest ever. Tomorrow’s column on the Brisbane bankers caught bragging they’ve already got shares. afr.com/rear-window/mo…

@FutureGenInvest @PlatoInvest Please send any questions in

We look forward to seeing you today at 2:30pm (Sydney time) for the Future Generation Global (ASX: FGG) FY2025 Q&A Webinar with @GeoffWilsonWAM, @PlatoInvest's David Allen & our CIO Lee Hopperton. Register here: lnkd.in/gaKEDRfY

Looking forward to seeing everyone this afternoon at 2.30pm sharp 👍

@rampart_news Another brilliant interview

Matt Comyn on what he'll do after CBA (he'll only be 53): "I don't know. I don't think about it too much. A very big part of me believes that life takes care of itself if you get all the other elements right." Watch it here: rampart.news/rampart-talks/…

Well explained Damien. 🙏

@SMSFassoc Great work Peter 👊

Peter Burgess and industry experts welcomed several technical amendments reflected in the Division 296 bill, particularly around legacy capital gains and the calculation of superannuation earnings attributable to in-scope members. Media release here - bit.ly/4aYn0Kk