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@GeorgiStephan
Honeymoon di Inggris di Paris di Jerman Su pasti ko deng sa barang jalan aman
Bali - Indonesia Katılım Ekim 2021
142 Takip Edilen53 Takipçiler

@MarioNawfal Last time I checked Kharg Is 500km away from the Strait of Hormuz.
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 U.S. and Israel just dismantled most of Iran’s conventional military leverage.
Leader gone, nukes hit, missiles degraded, command fractured. On paper, that’s a clean, decisive campaign.
And then Iran does the one thing everyone’s been predicting for 30 years: it stops playing on the battlefield and starts playing with the global economy.
Hormuz is the system. You don’t need a formal blockade when a few drones, some mines, and spiking insurance premiums can choke 20% of global oil. Traffic collapses, prices jump, and suddenly military success starts bleeding into political hesitation.
This is the uncomfortable part: tactical dominance doesn’t automatically translate into strategic control. Iran can’t win a conventional fight, but it doesn’t need to.
It just needs to raise the cost high enough that everyone else flinches first.
So the problem shifts. It’s no longer “can you destroy Iran’s capabilities?” It’s “can you remove its leverage?”
That’s where Kharg Island enters the picture. Destroy it and you lose leverage. Seize it and you own the switch: reopen Hormuz or your oil revenue goes to zero.
Messy, high-risk, escalatory. Also logically consistent with the current trajectory.
Source: The FP

Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🇺🇸🇮🇶🇮🇷 U.S. airstrikes reportedly hit Iran-backed 61st Brigade militia, the Popular Mobilization Forces in Kirkuk, northern Iraq. Source: RN Intel
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I did I know she “acting” and doesn’t like President trump. I know he’s far from perfect but I also know he’s a business man and he has a bigger plan that we don’t see yet and great things take time and patience. So give it some time and have some faith. If you want what is best for our country this is what we have now so it is what it is. Let hope and pray we get the best outcomes possible and everything works out for the best.
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@Ostrov_A 🇮🇷 Someone filmed this from a passenger plane and the world needs to see it.
Every single ship stranded. Going nowhere. This is what it looks like behind a blocked Strait of Hormuz.
This is what war does to world trade.
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@xavierjp__ Sure 20% go to heaven... The others are doomed for eternity
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As much as I enjoyed my time in Türkiye, exploring its rich history, being hosted by its hospitable people, tasting its lovely food and witnessing its amazing architecture
As a Muslim, I have to be objective
I was saddened to see so many graves within the boundaries of mosques. I visited suleimaniye mosque as part of my tour of Istanbul and upon entering was going to pray Tahiyyatul masjid, but right outside the window next to the mimbar you can see dozens and dozens of graves and mausoleums so big they could be mistaken for masajid themselves
I was saddened to see practices in the masajid that are not upon the Quran and sunnah
People hanging up 🧿 amulets in their shops or outside their flats believing it’ll keep them safe
Others trying to sell key rings or plaques with ayaat written on them, stating that these talismans will protect us and ward off evil
I was saddened that at night the masajid would be closed so you could not do itikaf overnight; but if you wanted to drink and dance with women, then bars/clubs were open
And it was sad seeing how secularised and liberal many Turks have become
Those who don’t fast
Those who don’t pray
Those who are what you would call “culturally Muslim”
They are not a small minority, trading their Muslim heritage for western hedonism and values in the name of “progress”
Allah’s aid is sought
One particularly sad event
I was in a famous mosque, Fajr prayer was done and the sun had not long risen,
A few metres behind me, a woman removed her hijab whilst she was inside the mosque
Note that this was outside of tourist visiting hours
I assumed it was because she was adjusting it
A few minutes go by and she’s still got her hair out. So I politely ask her to cover her hair
A few more minutes go by and she’s still got her hair out, so I go to her and ask her again to cover her hair as this is a mosque and it’s about showing respect
It is well known even amongst non Muslim tourists that women should cover their hair when visiting mosques
But She gives me a dirty look, kisses her teeth in arrogance and (in Turkish) says “I know I know, you said it already” in a mocking tone
The lack of respect was astounding
Not for me
Not even for herself
But for Allah, IN A MOSQUE
Was very sad to see
Even some of the Turkish brothers I met in the mosques would lament the state of Islam and Muslims in the country
May Allah guide the people and rulers of our nations, protect us from shirk and innovation and enable us to stand for and spread tawheed for Allah’s sake alone


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@HustleBitch_ Have they found the Iranian passport and manifesto?
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@AlexBarnicoat_ Hey @AlexBarnicoat_ ... I don't have a credit card. Other ways to support you?
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@noboru42256 Bisa aja terjadi secara tidak sengaja. Mungkin staff hotel salah lihat nomor kamar.
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@BDCryptoGuru @Whale_Guru You missed the first rule of dealing with the US…
Don’t touch our boats!
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@RedPandaKoala Let's focus on a positive timeline instead. Negative tards are in for a ride though
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🚨 Old 4chan post predicted World War 3 and alien invasion
Israel breaks ceasefire and strikes Iran
Trump responds with B2 bunker busters on nuclear sites
Iran hits all Gulf oil fields and US bases, blocks Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb
Oil prices skyrocket, blackouts in Africa and third world
US sends 3 aircraft carriers
At least 2 sunk by Iran, Russia, and China using suicide tactics
US tries amphibious invasion, first fails with massive casualties
Second attempt succeeds, oil fields seized, advance halts
US civil war begins, anti-war bloc takes DC with military support
US splits in two and retreats from Middle East
Turkey betrays NATO, joins Russia-Iran-China alliance, attacks Israel
China invades Taiwan and Guam
North Korea invades South, Japan fails to stop it
India possibly flips sides
Russia invades Poland and Baltics, links to Kaliningrad
Finland and NATO invade Russia, take Saint Petersburg
Europe collapses into riots, famine, and civil wars
Latin America allies with China and Russia
US invaded from the south, advance stops at Colorado
50 to 150 tactical nukes used high in atmosphere
Tsar Bomb and two strategic nukes used in Europe
Israel destroyed, Palestinians wiped with it
Air travel ends, crime and chaos everywhere
3 weeks of nuclear events
Fake alien invasion begins
MJ12 releases synthetic alien soldiers (PLFs)
PLFs hunt survivors, FEMA camps classify people as useful or undesirables
By 2027, 5 billion dead
Fake aliens defeated with help of real ones
One world government under MJ12 and the UN
Dome of the Rock destroyed

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Benjamin Netanyahu has now released a second "proof of life" video showing him still in control of the Israeli government.
The video shows him interacting with small crowds of Israelis outdoors.
Netanyahu says, "We're following the instructions and guidelines exactly, and together we're winning."
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@SprinterPress @murraysewerrat If that was a latte it would have left some of it on his lips..
His lips were clean when he finished drinking, the whole video looks HR Suss n stuff

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Take a good look: the video that Netanyahu posted with the words "I'm alive" is also artificial intelligence.
Despite the fact that he squeezes and shakes the glass, the coffee, filled to the brim, does not spill.
And although he pretends to be drinking, the level of coffee does not decrease at all.
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@Kali_laur3n @MaryK2022 Ever heard of sub HQ's. Mosaic means those 31 pieces can be broken down even more
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@BinsaeedRashid Good time to buy cheaply now and sell expensive, after the war
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@AimenDean Ground invasion by US and all they find is scorched earth. That would be hilarious.
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Look, yesterday I said there was maybe a 25% chance that this war could end with the use of tactical nuclear weapons to obliterate Iran’s 460 kg of highly enriched uranium, the amount that could theoretically produce about 11 nuclear warheads. That was the doomsday scenario.
But today, after watching how things are unfolding, I think there is another path emerging, it has a 50% likelihood!
What I would call the mother of all deals.
Here is my thinking.
If you want the Islamic Republic to give up its 460 kg of highly enriched uranium, you need leverage. Real leverage. Something the regime cannot live without.
And that leverage has a name: Kharg Island.
For those who don’t follow oil logistics, Kharg Island is not just another island in the Gulf. It is Iran’s economic jugular. Roughly 90% of Iran’s oil exports leave the country through that island terminal. Millions of barrels per day. It is, quite literally, the golden goose that lays the golden eggs for the regime.
Now imagine the following scenario.
The US military already this morning neutralised the island’s defences, the naval units guarding it, the missiles, the air defenses, the IRGC garrison. Now that umbrella is gone, Kharg becomes what strategists call a sitting duck in the Gulf waters, literally. 🦆
And then comes the strategic move: seize the island with all the oil facilities intact.
Because the facilities are the bargaining chip.
And once you have that island, the negotiation becomes very simple:
“You want your island back? Fine.
Hand over the 460 kg. Every gram. Not one kilogram missing.
Then you get your oil terminal back.”
It’s brutal leverage, but in strategic terms it’s actually kind of genius.
Trump basically taking the Ayatollahs’ golden goose, pointing a literal gun at its head, and saying:
“Give us the highly enriched stuff… Or I will blow up the stuff out of the goose.”
Now of course the Ayatollahs could respond with bravado. They could say:
“Fine. Keep the island. We’ll survive. We’ll continue to harass the Strait of Hormuz. We’ll endure.” .. in fact, they might start bombing the island themselves to target US forces there, but then they risk damaging the very thing they could very soon depend on for survival cash!💰
So what you get is a standoff.
An island.
A nuclear stockpile.
A lot of very tense bargaining.
Trump on one side.
The Ayatollahs on the other.
And everyone playing a very uncomfortable mind game of who blinks first.
Honestly, the whole thing sounds less like traditional strategic geopolitics and more like a script from “Lost” 😅 except the scriptwriters themselves are lost.😵💫
But if you ask me (and this is just my opinion, my own calculation looking at the board right now) this scenario is no longer a mere possibility.
If I were a betting man, I would say this is now the most likely outcome.
50% probability.
The war turning into a very strange standoff over a small island in the Gulf - an island that happens to control 90% of Iran’s oil exports and might end up deciding the fate of 460 kilograms of uranium.
I personally prefer this option. It’s less bloody and more predictable.

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