Michael Gleason

@patrick_oshag He must be reading stuff from years ago. Now the conclusion is last, after half a dozen ad videos

Paul on why writing and communicating clearly is one of the most important skills in business: "Journalism 101 should be a mandatory subject in every college. I took journalism classes, and newspaper writing teaches you how to write where the conclusion comes first. It's taking whatever event transpired, and putting it in this cogent way where the most important stuff starts at the beginning, and you work your way down through it. Particularly where, in today's world, the attention spans are this short, time clearly is money. You want to be able to communicate in the quickest and most concise fashion you can, where you get your entire point across in the shortest amount of time. As a macro thinker – man, it helped me so much to frame every potential trading decision. Let's say that there's 10 really important things. Every one of those will have its day. It'll rotate through in terms of importance. The yen's a great example. It's been completely undervalued for the past 24 months. It's so ripe to rally sharply, but it needed a catalytic moment. And that catalytic moment was this new Prime Minister that was just elected. So if you take valuation, which everyone's ignored now for the past two years in the yen, all of a sudden this moment takes it from here and puts it at the very top. That's literally what trading is all about."

@TheStalwart Float

Anyone else miss root beer?

@LappForCAGov a couple of notes: 85-90% of those children are American citizens, half have a legal/citizen parent and only working tax filers with taxpayer ITIN numbers qualify and they have to be low income, the children must be 6 years old or younger.

Did you know California spends $1.4 billion annually on refundable tax credits that go directly to illegals? This isn’t federal money—this is 100% state-funded by you. As of 2026, California law allows illegals to get $1,189 per child on their state tax return—fully paid for by California taxpayers. #maga

@RachelBitecofer California doesn't have any cities for the next 400 miles either and even then there are only two (SF and Monterey) all the way to Santa Barbara

Because we saw what happened in California where the public lost access to the beach so land development rules are extremely strict in Oregon. Also, the coast here is cold and windy. It’s not like the east coast.

@RachelBitecofer Buttigieg

Newsom

@yasminekho It’s so charming that you think that. Your own list shows that the half live of ways to get rich is decreasing exponentially. By the time the current way rises to general awareness it is on the way out

Every generation had a different way to get rich. 1700s: Land and colonization → Kings, empires, and merchants. Wealth was inherited or taken. 1800s: Steel, railroads, and oil → Vanderbilt. Rockefeller. Carnegie. Wealth came from infrastructure. Early 1900s: Banking, war, and industry → J.P. Morgan. Henry Ford. The rich were industrialists and financiers. Mid-1900s: Television, real estate, and manufacturing → Suburbs. Malls. Advertising empires. This was Mad Men meets Midwest. Late 1990s: The Internet 1.0 boom → Gates, Bezos, and early e-com billionaires. Domain names were the new land. 2010s: Social, mobile, and SaaS → Zuck, Musk, Airbnb, Uber, Shopify. Wealth came from platforms, code, and scale. 2020s: Audience + influence + ownership → Mr Beast, Garyvee & Alex Hormozi. Today’s leverage lives in distribution. We’re living in the era of visibility. You don’t need a factory. You need a following. You don’t need a product. You need permissionless trust. You don’t even need money. Just momentum, documented in public. The new frontier isn’t steel or software. It's a signal. And in a world where everyone is online, the people who win will be the ones who: - Own their narrative - Attract inbound energy - Build demand before they ever launch So if you’re waiting to be discovered… If you're keeping your ideas in drafts… If you think you're "not ready yet" You’re already behind. The rules have changed. The bar is lower. And the opportunity is infinite. The next wave of quietly wealthy people will be the ones who publish early, stay consistent, and build proof in public, one post, one idea, one aligned audience at a time. This is the era of personal brand. And no one’s coming to hand you one. Build it now. Before everyone else catches on.

@zerohedge time to reread the Charge of the Light Brigade

*PENTAGON PREPARING FOR WEEKS OF GROUND OPS IN IRAN: WAPO

@ConjectureInst Duh, science is just like everything else. That's why the essential element in evolution is death.

One of the problems is that the whole system [of funding scientific research] is institutionally biased against fundamental innovation. That's not by anyone's fault. It's simply because the method of choosing recipients goes through this bureaucratic process where the people judging it are asked to make a judgment on things that they can't possibly know. ~Conjecture Institute Advisor @DavidDeutschOxf

@RachelBitecofer ouch!

At least he didn’t go full Theisman.

@shanaka86 Is that the same AI as targeted (twice) the girls elementary school?

The AI that selected the coordinates for the strike that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader just announced a sovereign operating system for warfare. On the same day the IRGC declared it a legitimate military target. Palantir and Nvidia released their Sovereign AI Operating System Reference Architecture today, 12th March. A complete turnkey stack: Nvidia’s Blackwell GPUs running the accelerated inference, Palantir’s Ontology layer fusing every sensor, satellite, signal intercept, and human intelligence source into a single operational picture, and Anthropic’s Claude performing the reasoning that converts raw data into targeting decisions. The system compresses what used to take analysts days into seconds. CENTCOM used it to locate Khamenei. The B-2 that dropped the GBU-57 on Parchin flew a mission planned inside it. Every precision strike in Operation Epic Fury passes through this architecture before a weapon is released. Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya published both companies on its target list yesterday. Google. Microsoft. Palantir. IBM. Nvidia. Oracle. Amazon. The IRGC is targeting the AI that is targeting the IRGC. The companies whose chips select the bombs and whose software sequences the strikes are now on the same list as the military infrastructure those bombs are destroying. The war has become recursive: the targeting system is itself a target. This is the asymmetry that governs the 21st century and it was announced on the same day the war demonstrated it. On one side: an AI architecture that ingests every data source on Earth, fuses it through a semantic layer that understands what every object IS and how it relates to every other object, runs inference on the most powerful GPUs ever manufactured, and produces targeting coordinates in seconds. Sovereign. Classified. Air-gapped. Scalable to every theatre the United States operates in. The announcement today was not a product launch. It was a declaration that the architecture already winning this war is now available as a reference design for every allied nation on Earth. On the other side: 31 autonomous IRGC commanders with sealed orders from a dead man, firing $20,000 drones at $2 billion data centres, laying mines by hand from small boats, and publishing target lists that include the companies whose AI selected the coordinates for the strike that killed their Supreme Leader. Human doctrine versus machine intelligence. Mosaic versus Ontology. Sealed orders versus real-time inference. The cost ratio tells the story. The GBU-57 that hit Parchin was selected by an AI system running on chips that cost thousands of dollars, processing data that arrived in milliseconds, producing a targeting solution that was verified, approved, and executed within a single operational cycle. The IRGC’s response to that strike was a $20,000 drone aimed at an AWS data centre and a handwritten target list published on a news agency website. One side operates at the speed of light through silicon. The other operates at the speed of a fast boat through a minefield. The war is not between America and Iran. It is between two paradigms of military organisation. One fuses every source of information on Earth into a single decision layer and acts in seconds. The other distributes authority to 31 human commanders who act on paper orders from a dead leader and cannot be updated, recalled, or redirected because the chain of command terminates in a cardboard photograph. Palantir’s stock surged on the announcement. Nvidia’s Blackwell chips are backordered through 2027. And somewhere in a tunnel beneath Isfahan, 200 kilograms of uranium sits one week from weapons grade, located by the same Ontology that cannot yet send an inspector to verify it, targeted by the same AI that cannot yet open the door. The machine knows where the material is. The doctrine prevents anyone from reaching it. That is the war. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

@shanaka86 What evidence do you have that those 31 commands are each still functioning

JUST IN: Iran’s new Supreme Leader is wounded and in hiding. It does not change a single thing about this war. That is the point. Mojtaba Khamenei was named Supreme Leader on 8 March, the first hereditary succession in the Islamic Republic’s history. Israeli intelligence assesses he was wounded in an airstrike on Tehran around 7 March, before his appointment was even announced. He has not been seen publicly since the war began on 28 February. His whereabouts are classified. CNN reports he is living in hiding. He has never given a public speech in his life. The United States and Israel just decapitated Iran’s Supreme Leader for the second time in nine days. The first decapitation killed his father on 28 February. The IRGC activated Mosaic Defence doctrine within hours. Thirty-one autonomous provincial commands assumed independent firing authority. They launched 3,000 missiles and drones in the first week. They struck six Gulf countries simultaneously. They hit Dubai International Airport, Bahrain’s refinery, a desalination plant, fuel infrastructure in Kuwait, and US bases across the region. All without a functioning Supreme Leader. All without central authorisation. All on pre-delegated protocols designed for exactly this scenario. The second decapitation wounded his son. The 31 commands did not pause. The 31 commands did not wait for medical updates. The 31 commands continued launching because the doctrine that governs them was designed to operate without a Supreme Leader. That is not a bug. It is the entire architecture. Trump said on 8 March that Mojtaba “is not going to last long” without US approval. Israel designated him a “legitimate target for assassination.” The operational assumption in Washington and Jerusalem is that eliminating the head of the Iranian state forces the body to collapse. This assumption has now been tested twice in nine days. Both times, the body continued fighting without the head. The implications for the war’s duration are devastating. If the Supreme Leader’s survival is irrelevant to the IRGC’s operational tempo, then killing or wounding him provides no leverage for ceasefire. The 31 provincial commanders who control the missiles, the drones, the anti-ship batteries, and the coastline facing every Gulf state do not answer to Mojtaba. They did not answer to his father. They answer to the doctrine. And the doctrine says: fight independently, with whatever you have, for as long as it takes. For insurers, the wounding confirms the thesis. The counterparty that would need to guarantee safe passage through the Strait, through Gulf airspace, through the regional threat envelope from Cyprus to Muscat, is not merely fragmented. It is wounded, hiding, and operationally irrelevant. The probability that all 31 independent commanders will simultaneously honour any ceasefire signed by a leader they do not operationally recognise has not changed. It was near zero before the wounding. It remains near zero after. For markets, the wounding should accelerate the repricing that the $119-to-$103 reversal temporarily delayed. The G7’s 400 million barrels buy days. The doctrine buys years. The Supreme Leader’s condition is noise. The 31 autonomous commands are signal. Two Supreme Leaders targeted in nine days. Both removed from operational relevance. And the war machine they nominally led has not missed a single launch cycle. The head does not matter. The doctrine does. And the doctrine was designed to be immortal. Full analysis in the link. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

@TOEwithCurt How many widely divergent schemes are put out there by theoreticians based on "rationality" or math but all actual progress is based on reaction to data.

When was a time you tried to go deep on one of these topics (physics, consciousness, philosophy) and hit a wall? What happened? And what was frustrating about it?

@drterrysimpson I started following you out of an interest in your knowledge of your field. These constant engagements with trolls I find exhausting.

The Mediterranean Diet does not have other “versions” there is one version that is in the literature and one version that is used to determine adherence. You can have full adherence without eating food from the Mediterranean - but that is another story. So - this person doesn’t know the gospel of the Mediterranean

@RachelBitecofer you are the best

In 2024, the verdict arrived within hours: Harris ran on democracy and it failed. Democrats lost because they chased Republicans. The Democratic coalition is dead. Young voters are becoming more conservative. Non-Cuban Latinos are becoming more Republican It was neat. It was tidy. It was analytically lazy. Almost all of it was wrong. and yet I hear these repeated on election segments all the time. Here are six things they still don’t get.

🚨🚨🚨 🧵Six Things Pundits (Still) Don’t Understand About American Elections: 10 years later, I am still trying to modernize election analysis! I’ve spent years watching the same election autopsies get written after every loss. The tone changes. The graphics get sharper. The consultants rotate. But the analytical mistakes never do.

@GaryMarcus Musk will die a pauper

Radical changes in Elon Musk’s behavior and outlook have elevated my p(doom). To really screw up the planet, you might need something like the following. • A really powerful person with tentacles across the entire planet • Substantial influence over the world’s information ecosphere • A large number of devoted followers willing to justify almost any choice • Leverage over world governments and their leaders • Physical boots on the ground in a wide part of the world • A desire for military contracts • Some form of massively empowered (not necessarily very smart) AI • Incomplete or poor control over that AI • A tendency towards impulsivity and risk-taking • A disregard towards conventional norms • Outright malice to humanity or at least a kind of reckless indifference What crystallized for me over the last few days is that we now have such a person. See link below for a new essay articulating my concerns.

@SRuhle @CurtisHouck this is completely crazy. over reach

@CurtisHouck You are absolutely right. My mistake

Curious omission of the Obama administration from this MS NOW segment Thursday night with Stephanie Ruhle and Peter Baker that brought up Kathy Ruemmler stepping down from Goldman Sachs b/c of her ties to Epstein

@MoDakhil_NBA read the studies

Well I just dropped a full glass of green juice this morning on the kitchen floor. How's your morning going?

@Zepp1978 he's a hero alright but he's not there without Frodo and Gandalf. It takes a village

Gotta believe anyone who read it did, too.

Penny for a WH reporter to ask Vance if he believes the Capitol Police were right to shoot Ashli Babbitt

@ramez This is exactly right. We parsing the event like it was a play at home plate. It's the entire context that brought this on. They're not playing.

The most dangerous thing about yesterday's ICE shooting isn't the shooting itself: It's the response from Trump, Vance, and Noem that signals to ICE that they can do this again, with impunity. No investigation. No suspension. No talk of training or policies. Just impunity.