pat dwarfens

2.2K posts

pat dwarfens

pat dwarfens

@Goblin_Mode_69

local retard that pointed my autism towards economics/ finance and foreign / domestic policy instead of trains / dinosaurs

Katılım Haziran 2023
45 Takip Edilen26 Takipçiler
pat dwarfens retweetledi
guy
guy@normal9uyminus1·
real men wake up and start drinking and smoking and gooning and killing people and start being misogynistic and don't take out the trash and hop on the game and snort blow and piss on the toilet seat and leave the toilet seat up and eat all the food and punch a hole in the wall a
English
43
370
3.8K
94.8K
pat dwarfens
pat dwarfens@Goblin_Mode_69·
Yeah I feel u. I’m just saying big law is more meritocratic than big tech. The selection gates are each an independent market from one another, and the business is tougher. Law firms don’t operate at 50-70% gross margins and don’t get vc funding. It’s inherently a more competitive market
English
1
0
0
28
Chia Jeng Yang
Chia Jeng Yang@chiajy2000·
I agree with you that these are good tests for effort and probably some intelligence. I don't believe they are better tests for value creation than an open free market. Effort and intelligence are necessary conditions for value creation, but value created is the definition of value creation. I think there's this idea that you would get spotted by luck in writing code. You don't write code in the ether. You can / can only contribute to specific projects, and the community and project owners can recognize your contribution specifically. There is no equivalent barrier-less contribution and recognition of value, given the existence of UPL. Separately, you can absolutely have vigorous obstacles that reward effort and intelligence, while still ending up with a less-than-meritocratic environment. The Imperial Exams in the Qing Dynasty were extremely rigorous and rewarded relatively high-intelligent / high-effort individuals from all walks of life. Yet, many of these scholars ended up in sinecure positions and contributed little to society beyond poetry. I don't compare big law to this, as the comparison is flawed, but the principle we are addressing is identical.
English
1
0
0
59
Chia Jeng Yang
Chia Jeng Yang@chiajy2000·
The 'Which is more meritocratic - Big Law or Big Tech?' debate is insane. In tech, you can write open-source code as a high-school drop-out, get spotted, and make billions of dollars. In law, you need to go to the best Ivy-league schools and survive in one of the most politicized industries in the world to effectively take a % cut of your associate's billings to make tens of millions of dollars. How is this even vaguely a debate?
English
3
1
23
3.5K
Chia Jeng Yang
Chia Jeng Yang@chiajy2000·
@Goblin_Mode_69 @SteelToeScribe Someone wise once said this. I don't believe you would see many similar comments in tech. x.com/SteelToeScribe…
Jon Con Esq.@SteelToeScribe

@TMTLongShort @tangojoshua Million percent true in law Some 60 year old rainmaker for the last 30 years literally operates at a less capable level than his star associates. Been comfortable for too long. Delegates 90%+ of tasks. Makes money for being involved and doing nothing. Why would you be good?

English
1
0
1
51
pat dwarfens
pat dwarfens@Goblin_Mode_69·
Not really a defense for the data centers themselves. But Typically municipalities are responsible for zoning industrial facilities so if they allowed these to be close to residential neighborhoods that’s on local regulators. Separately most places, in U.S. at least, have a utility commission that sets energy pricing structure so also on regulators if data centers distort broader energy pricing. Basically saying is it the data center developers fault if the local government is dumb ?
English
0
0
0
32
‏ً
‏ً@omgsidewalks·
SERIOUS QUESTION: why do AI data centers need fresh water. Not recycled. Not wastewater. Fresh, drinkable water, burned through by the millions of gallons just to keep servers cool. Why are we using a basic human necessity to prop up machines ??
English
1.1K
2.1K
24K
5.2M
pat dwarfens
pat dwarfens@Goblin_Mode_69·
@chiajy2000 @SteelToeScribe Ivy League school a good judge, bar exam good judge, big law recruiting good judge. In tech you theoretically could be competing with no one or very few depending what you’re working on
English
1
0
0
61
Chia Jeng Yang
Chia Jeng Yang@chiajy2000·
@Goblin_Mode_69 @SteelToeScribe How would this argument work? “Spotted” seems to imply a type of “proof of work” system. Wouldn’t a system that allowed anyone to pro-actively produce work to be judged by the public (and even used in commercial settings freely) be more meritocratic?
English
1
0
0
94
pat dwarfens
pat dwarfens@Goblin_Mode_69·
@chiajy2000 @SteelToeScribe Oh okay, maybe I misread. I just meant more that the fact you cannot “get spotted” in big law kind of supports that it is more meritocratic than tech
English
1
0
0
54
Chia Jeng Yang
Chia Jeng Yang@chiajy2000·
@Goblin_Mode_69 @SteelToeScribe I didn’t make this claim. Credentials is a necessary condition for an equity partnership. I do not claim it is the only requirement. I also pointed out that the reward of effort is not the only necessary condition for the definition of meritocracy.
English
1
0
0
70
pat dwarfens
pat dwarfens@Goblin_Mode_69·
@SteelToeScribe @chiajy2000 Have yet to meet a Kirkland equity partner that is keeping their job by Ivy League credentials or a licensing exam alone. The best ones are also raking in top dollar compensation. They eat what they kill. Don’t think original poster has any idea what they’re talking about
English
2
0
1
60
pat dwarfens
pat dwarfens@Goblin_Mode_69·
@svembu lol their strategic shift to ibm consulting now seems kind of retarded since AI hurting all professional services and they had to grovel for us government to invest in their new “quantum foundry” instead of any normal investors
English
0
0
0
67
pat dwarfens
pat dwarfens@Goblin_Mode_69·
lol naturally the ceo who’s company is broadly struggling and light years behind on AI is trying to drum up skepticism. Good news is that data centers have broader use cases beyond AI and we needed more capacity long before AI was used broadly. Cloud computing generally requires data center capacity and a lot of companies are still trying to run their own on premises data centers much less efficiently than outsourcing. AI demand might slow but data center demand retracting materially less likely
English
1
0
2
983
Sridhar Vembu
Sridhar Vembu@svembu·
IBM CEO Arvind Krishna says the muli-trillion dollar AI data center build out is a bubble. We are investing in creating capabilities like data curation, reinforcement learning, and most crucially the compiler infrastructure to ensure AI output can be verified but we will not chase the investment bubble. This is just our normal prudence. To some people that would sound defeatist, but we will talk in 5 years.
DavidLinthicum@DavidLinthicum

The Emperor Has No Clothes: Why the AI Infrastructure Buildout Math Doesn't Work I have to give IBM CEO Arvind Krishna credit. He's saying what many of us in this industry have been thinking but haven't been willing to say out loud. The math just doesn't add up. Here's what I'm seeing that's deeply troubling. We're in the middle of another mass hallucination. Just like the dot-com bubble, just like blockchain, just like the metaverse — everyone is convinced that building massive data centers will automatically create massive wealth. But here's the thing about building infrastructure. You actually have to sell what's inside it. Let's talk numbers. The planned data center buildout over the next 5-10 years is staggering. We're talking about commitments in the hundreds of gigawatts globally. The capital expenditure commitments are in the trillions. Yet when you look at the actual demand signals, not the projections, not the potential, but the actual consumption patterns, there's a massive gap. These AI companies are betting everything on demand that simply doesn't exist at the scale they're planning for. Let me be direct. AI services are expensive. Enterprise adoption is slow. Consumer AI is still finding its footing. And the compute requirements being promised by the hyperscalers require a level of demand that would represent a fundamental shift in how businesses consume technology. That's a big ask. I've seen this pattern before. The overbuilding. The belief that if you build it, they will come. The groupthink that turns critical analysis into heresy. The result is always the same. Companies are going to touch the stove. We're going to see massive write-downs. We're going to see pivots, shutdowns, and strategic reviews. We're going to see companies that spent years and billions trying to be the AI infrastructure leader become case studies in how not to read a market. The IBM CEO is right. The math doesn't work. And unlike 1999, we don't have the excuse of we didn't know. We know exactly what's happening. We just don't want to believe it because the alternative, being a skeptic while everyone else is piling in, feels like career suicide. It's not. The ones who survive the next decade will be the ones who built for reality, not fantasy. Wake up. The emperor has no clothes. As reported by Futurism, Krishna laid out striking calculations: a 1 gigawatt data center costs roughly $80 billion today. If one company commits 20-30 gigawatts, that's $1.5 trillion in capital expenditure. The total commitments across the industry for chasing AGI are approximately 100 gigawatts, equaling $8 trillion. To break even, you'd need $800 billion in profit just to cover the interest. That's not investment. That's hoping. futurism.com/artificial-int…

English
112
314
1.9K
235.7K
pat dwarfens
pat dwarfens@Goblin_Mode_69·
@SteelToeScribe @chiajy2000 Also I’m not talking about associates. They don’t really add value til their 4th or 5th year. But the partners really are the best of the best at the firms I deal with. Truly impressive individuals
English
1
0
1
27
pat dwarfens
pat dwarfens@Goblin_Mode_69·
@SteelToeScribe @chiajy2000 I think in tech you can get lucky and have a fantastic outcome. In big law you cannot get lucky to have a good outcome. You have to win in a series of very competitive environments where lucks ability to help you fades as you progress in that career. You truly have to be the best
English
2
0
1
50
pat dwarfens
pat dwarfens@Goblin_Mode_69·
@PunishedKebbin lol in the US this is led by doctor associations and they do the same thing
English
1
0
0
13
Kebbin
Kebbin@PunishedKebbin·
India’s medical system fails because it lets state bureaucrats micromanage seat counts, curriculums, and college approvals, tasks only independent medical peers can judge. This top-down command economy creates artificial doctor shortages, invites corruption, and enforces minimum compliance over elite excellence. India must strip the state of its micromanagement powers and delegate gatekeeping to independent, doctor-led professional associations.
English
3
7
23
567
pat dwarfens
pat dwarfens@Goblin_Mode_69·
@its_ShubhamK @imPraveenk @nirajxdev Would actually frustrate the U.S. product managers to no end because they all knew we were suggesting a dumb idea but wouldn’t say anything cause we were their bosses. We eventually inserted an India based pm too cause the deep tech guys in India would tell them but not us
English
0
0
0
6
pat dwarfens
pat dwarfens@Goblin_Mode_69·
Yeah back when I was upper management in tech, The Indian developers / architects were way cheaper and always did what we said. But worked way harder than the Americans. That being said the Americans were generally better / more valuable all-in. Their willingness to argue usually resulted in better outcomes cause they would tell me when I was wrong. My Indian boys rarely did or were extremely hesitant to do so
English
1
0
0
11
Niraj
Niraj@nirajxdev·
Indian tech workers aren't "hardworking". They're just the cheapest, most obedient labor on the planet. 12-14 hour days, weekends, festivals, 2 AM calls, all accepted with "sir, no problem". Meanwhile foreign engineers do half the work for 5-8x the money and still have boundaries. We don’t have a talent advantage. We have a desperation advantage. That’s the real Indian tech story tbh.
English
162
343
2.5K
159.6K
pat dwarfens
pat dwarfens@Goblin_Mode_69·
@dennisZamenace @GammaOverTheta @rishabhm Yeah India has corruption at basically all levels of government and in all three branches. In the U.S. you can’t bribe 99% of police officers and that 99% never expect to get one. That’s like the lowest level of political role and India generally still has bribery there
English
1
0
1
21
pat dwarfens
pat dwarfens@Goblin_Mode_69·
@bookwormengr Headline here is falling in love will have you doing the most random shit. Since my fiance and her family from India I’m on Twitter spit balling Indian trade policy reform
English
0
0
1
28
pat dwarfens
pat dwarfens@Goblin_Mode_69·
guess one final point would be the protectionist policies that most need change would be political career suicide. The farming and heavier industrial industries dominated by the wealthiest families have the most protectionist tariffs / non tariff favoritism. Eliminating those would hurt both votes and funding
English
1
0
0
20
GDP
GDP@bookwormengr·
A few serious issues with Jss' argument: 1. The $10k figure is wrong. China's individual forex quota is $50,000/year - not "less than $10k." That's the cash-carrying limit for travel, which is a different thing entirely. If we're going to criticize a system, let's get the basics right. 2. Capital controls exist on a spectrum, not a binary. India's LRS of $250k is itself a capital control, just a more permissive one. Framing China's tighter version as "extraction by force" while treating India's as "freedom" is intellectually inconsistent. Both are policy choices about how much capital flight a developing economy can tolerate. 3. The US model isn't replicable. The US runs persistent current account deficits funded by dollar hegemony. It can sustain high consumption + growth because the world holds its debt as a reserve asset. This isn't an "achievement" other countries can copy. It is a structural privilege. Telling India to emulate this is like telling someone to be born taller. 4. China's model didn't just "work because the US consumed." Chinese domestic consumption is ~38% of GDP and growing. The rebalancing challenge is real, but reducing 40 years of the most dramatic poverty reduction in history to "collectivism funded by American shoppers" isn't proper analysis. 5. Nobody serious is arguing for communism in India. The actual debate is about industrial policy: how much the state should coordinate investment in manufacturing, infrastructure, and technology. Singapore, South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan all did this aggressively. Are they communist? People like @svembu are arguing for that playbook, not Maoism. 6. "High consumption + high growth is rare and an achievement" US real GDP growth has averaged ~2% for 20 years. China averaged 6-8%. If growth is the metric, the consumption-led model hasn't outperformed the investment-led one (off course different base, but you get the point). The US is rich because of accumulated wealth and institutions built over 250 years, not because consumption-led growth is a magic formula. 7. Also, USA has vastly more resources than resource poor China: Oil, Agricultural land etc. The right answer for India probably isn't copying either model wholesale. But dismissing folks who sees merit in East Asian industrial policy as people who "haven't thought for 2 minutes" isn't fair....
jss@jsensarma

I am firmly convinced China is not the model for India, neither the panacea it's made out to be. Good article on recent capital controls. (Link in comment). India has a LRS of 250k USD. If I understand right - China doesn't allow individual foreign investments at all and only has a travel allowance of less than USD 10k. This seems predictable. It's a collectivistc regime, that prioritized investment and that worked great as long the consumption came from the US (everything that is produced has to be consumed). But now that consumption has disappeared and so has the FDI - it must fund the investment internally. Who better to extract this from by force - than citizens. Imo people like Vembu who extol the Chinese model and criticize the US oned have never paused to think for 2 minutes about the relationship between consumption and investment and how a high consumption high-growth economy is rare and an achievement. And that the US pulls this off consistently is why it's the richest in the world and why everyone wants a pie of it. We have a shit load of problems, but collectivism and communism are not the answer.

English
5
1
10
3.2K