pat dwarfens
2.2K posts

pat dwarfens
@Goblin_Mode_69
local retard that pointed my autism towards economics/ finance and foreign / domestic policy instead of trains / dinosaurs




@TMTLongShort @tangojoshua Million percent true in law Some 60 year old rainmaker for the last 30 years literally operates at a less capable level than his star associates. Been comfortable for too long. Delegates 90%+ of tasks. Makes money for being involved and doing nothing. Why would you be good?










The Emperor Has No Clothes: Why the AI Infrastructure Buildout Math Doesn't Work I have to give IBM CEO Arvind Krishna credit. He's saying what many of us in this industry have been thinking but haven't been willing to say out loud. The math just doesn't add up. Here's what I'm seeing that's deeply troubling. We're in the middle of another mass hallucination. Just like the dot-com bubble, just like blockchain, just like the metaverse — everyone is convinced that building massive data centers will automatically create massive wealth. But here's the thing about building infrastructure. You actually have to sell what's inside it. Let's talk numbers. The planned data center buildout over the next 5-10 years is staggering. We're talking about commitments in the hundreds of gigawatts globally. The capital expenditure commitments are in the trillions. Yet when you look at the actual demand signals, not the projections, not the potential, but the actual consumption patterns, there's a massive gap. These AI companies are betting everything on demand that simply doesn't exist at the scale they're planning for. Let me be direct. AI services are expensive. Enterprise adoption is slow. Consumer AI is still finding its footing. And the compute requirements being promised by the hyperscalers require a level of demand that would represent a fundamental shift in how businesses consume technology. That's a big ask. I've seen this pattern before. The overbuilding. The belief that if you build it, they will come. The groupthink that turns critical analysis into heresy. The result is always the same. Companies are going to touch the stove. We're going to see massive write-downs. We're going to see pivots, shutdowns, and strategic reviews. We're going to see companies that spent years and billions trying to be the AI infrastructure leader become case studies in how not to read a market. The IBM CEO is right. The math doesn't work. And unlike 1999, we don't have the excuse of we didn't know. We know exactly what's happening. We just don't want to believe it because the alternative, being a skeptic while everyone else is piling in, feels like career suicide. It's not. The ones who survive the next decade will be the ones who built for reality, not fantasy. Wake up. The emperor has no clothes. As reported by Futurism, Krishna laid out striking calculations: a 1 gigawatt data center costs roughly $80 billion today. If one company commits 20-30 gigawatts, that's $1.5 trillion in capital expenditure. The total commitments across the industry for chasing AGI are approximately 100 gigawatts, equaling $8 trillion. To break even, you'd need $800 billion in profit just to cover the interest. That's not investment. That's hoping. futurism.com/artificial-int…











I’m sorry to say this, but the Government in India increasingly resembles institutionalized corruption. It’s tragic that this is happening in the world’s largest democracy. Even more troubling is that many good people seem to have become so accustomed to it that they no longer question it.



I am firmly convinced China is not the model for India, neither the panacea it's made out to be. Good article on recent capital controls. (Link in comment). India has a LRS of 250k USD. If I understand right - China doesn't allow individual foreign investments at all and only has a travel allowance of less than USD 10k. This seems predictable. It's a collectivistc regime, that prioritized investment and that worked great as long the consumption came from the US (everything that is produced has to be consumed). But now that consumption has disappeared and so has the FDI - it must fund the investment internally. Who better to extract this from by force - than citizens. Imo people like Vembu who extol the Chinese model and criticize the US oned have never paused to think for 2 minutes about the relationship between consumption and investment and how a high consumption high-growth economy is rare and an achievement. And that the US pulls this off consistently is why it's the richest in the world and why everyone wants a pie of it. We have a shit load of problems, but collectivism and communism are not the answer.


