@DarkMiner Played my first round of the year yesterday. Good to be back on the links.
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Par Trek Golf
111 posts
No—I was a small business owner and invested the profits into stocks and apartment buildings. I don’t think you can be truly great at investing unless you’ve started, scaled, and sold a business, so you really understand it. My cousin has an MBA from Harvard and works full-time in finance, yet I manage his dad’s portfolio 🙃
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It's true—I manage all of my friends' and family's investments. Everyone asks about buying Bitcoin at the lows. I tell them I have no idea whether it's going higher or lower; to me, it's worthless. But I'm positive you're going to wipe your ass today, so we're trying to buy a toilet paper factory/brand. I was trying to buy Ursus at auction but lost to a Ukrainian I think planned on making armored vehicles with it.
Andrew Tate@Cobratate
ALL YOUR INVESTMENTS WILL FAIL
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As of today, if $STRC were a "Crypto", it would be the 25th largest "crypto" by market cap (>$4B). If it doubles in size, it'll jump Monero at #14 by market cap.
$SATA would be #87 by market cap ($427M).
Bitcoin dominance will strengthen.
coinmarketcap.com
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@hillery_dan Hopefully sooner than later. I'm confident my investment committee would be on board if they could easily include a hedge on the position.
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@stonychambers What milestones or unlocks do you see along the path of greater options liquidity and volume?
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No one talks about this but its one of the most important points for $STRC adoption.
Options have existed on STRC for a few months. Liquidity is bad, but still better than the options on competing instruments like $USFR or $SGOV.
Ultimately, STRC is the most heavily traded preferred security. The options activity will come.
I do expect to see $1 and maybe even $0.50 increment strike prices and better bid offer spreads. As the risk transference (options) market develops, it will further de-risk STRC to institutions.
Strategy will sell billions USD weekly. And then billions USD daily.
Creating an unprecedented bid for Bitcoin.
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Par Trek Golf retweetledi
Bayes’ theorem is probably the single most important thing any rational person can learn.
So many of our debates and disagreements that we shout about are because we don’t understand Bayes’ theorem or how human rationality often works.
Bayes’ theorem is named after the 18th-century Thomas Bayes, and essentially it’s a formula that asks: when you are presented with all of the evidence for something, how much should you believe it?
Bayes’ theorem teaches us that our beliefs are not fixed; they are probabilities. Our beliefs change as we weigh new evidence against our assumptions, or our priors. In other words, we all carry certain ideas about how the world works, and new evidence can challenge them.
For example, somebody might believe that smoking is safe, that stress causes mouth ulcers, or that human activity is unrelated to climate change. These are their priors, their starting points. They can be formed by our culture, our biases, or even incomplete information.
Now imagine a new study comes along that challenges one of your priors. A single study might not carry enough weight to overturn your existing beliefs. But as studies accumulate, eventually the scales may tip. At some point, your prior will become less and less plausible.
Bayes’ theorem argues that being rational is not about black and white. It’s not even about true or false. It’s about what is most reasonable based on the best available evidence. But for this to work, we need to be presented with as much high-quality data as possible. Without evidence—without belief-forming data—we are left only with our priors and biases. And those aren’t all that rational.
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Anyone interested in STRC,
please DM me, we are incentivizing Buck holders.
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@BritishHodl What about charts pricing in gold to be able to do historical analysis beyond a 18 year time horizon?
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The dumbest chart I've seen is the anything priced in Gold chart anymore.
Let me explain why - the reason why this chart WAS useful was because Gold was assumed the "hardest" money.
It was seen as the protector asset - and it was.
UNTIL Bitcoin came along and proved that absolute mathematical scarcity was better than Gold's human controlled scarcity.
So if you TRULY UNDERSTAND Bitcoin - then it becomes the "hurdle rate" and replaces the base layer of value from the old hard money - Gold.
Therefore, Bitcoin is the asset to beat - not Gold.
So any chart of any asset priced in Gold is now supposed to be irrelevant and the only chart that matters is any asset priced in Bitcoin.
I say this WHILE the chart for Gold/BTC is NOT looking good for Bitcoin to prove the point that your emotions based on price action of an asset - should not change your core philosophy and understanding of an asset.
Right now, Gold is performing better than Bitcoin, but zoom out and it's a different store.
Because Bitcoin is unequivocally superior to Gold.
But - too many people are holding the metals for emotional reasons and justifying it as an investment.
Anything priced in Gold is strictly irrelevant and Gold priced in Bitcoin is the only relevant chart.
Good luck.
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@matthughes13 I'm guessing we are viewing in different time frames. Months vs years. Trading vs investing. Nominal vs real. Etc. All I'm saying is that in inflation/money supply terms silver hasn't even made an ATH yet when viewing in a multi decade perspective. Best of luck with your trades.
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@GolfTrek Silver going from $30-100 is not just starting. Even if it goes to $200, thats only a double from current price which makes my statement true. Most of the big percentages have already been made
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Most of the percentages have been made in gold and silver for the next 5 years so I couldn’t care less about chasing.
Meanwhile ALL the percentages remain in crypto.
I’m building a portfolio for the future 10x gains while the majority of people keep crying at support
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@matthughes13 What if its just breaking out in real (inflation adjusted) terms?
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#GOLD and #Silver are likely screaming through blow-off tops right now—gold blasting past $4,500/oz after a 70% run in 2025, silver exploding 170% to $78/oz.
If you're buying the hype about central banks endlessly stacking gold (they net purchased ~415 tonnes in H1 2025—robust, but down 21% from H1 2024 and not infinite) or silver's impending "scarcity" crisis (another structural deficit is projected, but total demand is expected to dip ~4% in 2025 per Metals Focus and the Silver Institute, thanks to higher prices spurring thrifting, substitution, and weaker performance in sectors like jewelry and silverware), you're ignoring Econ 101: supply and demand.
Higher prices always lure sellers out of the woodwork—miners ramp up production, holders cash out, recycled supply floods in. Late buyers chasing the narrative get wrecked, just like the 2021 FOMO crew piling into crypto tops ( $BTC at $69K), $TSLA at $400+, and meme stocks because "this time it's different."
History rhymes: silver's 2011 parabola from $18 to $50 ended in tears. Don't be the bagholder when the music stops.
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@crisreed What if it just broke out in real (inflation adjusted) terms?
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Sell silver at $75.
Buy bitcoin at $89k.
Trade of the decade.
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@HermesLux @BTCBULLRIDER Good points on the spread and the incentives.
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In theory, yes, but imperfectly in practice. The longer people wait, the worse it will get for MTPLF holders. Why? There's no incentive for people to buy MTPLF anymore so you'll have this ticker with primarily sellers forcing market makers to widen the spread over time = not ideal. The opposite is true for MPJPY.
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Question: "Should I sell MTPLF and buy MPJPY?"
Answer: There are a few things to consider:
1. ADR (American Depositary Receipt) Pass-Through Fee:
This is a small service fee charged by the bank that manages the foreign stock’s listing in the United States.
Because Metaplanet’s new MPJPY ticker is a "Sponsored ADR", this fee applies to that ticker but generally not to the older MTPLF ticker.
2. Liquidity
Because MPJPY just started trading last Friday, the liquidity is thin and there for the bid/ask spread is wide.
That said, in the long term, I project that MPJPY will trade with greater volume as institutions will prefer to own this over MTPLF.
In summary, if you are looking to start a NEW position, MPJPY is the better long-term choice as it is the company-sanctioned vehicle with no $50 brokerage fees.
However, if you already hold MTPLF, there is no urgent rush to sell and swap, but do expect the company to focus all future Investor Relations efforts on the MPJPY ticker.
Personally, I am holding onto my MTPLF shares until I see marked improvement in liquidity and thinner bid/ask spreads.
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@HermesLux @BTCBULLRIDER Question: don't both tickers represent the same underlying? So while there might be a difference in the short term won't arbitragers close the performance gap shortly?
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@BTCBULLRIDER MTPLF will underperform MPJPY making the ADR fees irrelevant. Save on fees but lose more on performance...
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