Cris Reed 🟠 (Bitcoin Mindset)

@bleighky @NickNemo17 @PunterJeff @AdamBLiv @Werkman @mikewmunz “Carry” is about to have a new meaning …

Didn't expect to see a quote about Saylor “You can see Michael Saylor doing the same thing with his special preferred securities at Strategy — manufacturing an impossibly smooth return profile on an inherently volatile underlying. But at least he is derided for it. At least the market pushes back. In private credit, there is no market to push back. There is no trading. There is no price discovery. There are only marks. And the marks say everything is fine.”

TLDR: I am a recovering alcoholic with no fund, no credentials, and no lobbyist. I rebuilt myself from nothing. Then I broke into finance with no degree, no pedigree, and no permission. I parsed SEC filings for a $31.5 billion private credit fund called Cliffwater. Not because anyone asked me to. Because nobody else would. The filings are public, but they are buried in footnotes that are not indexed, not searchable, and not structured for analysis. I have been told by fund managers that nobody even attempts this. Billions of dollars in pension capital, and the people who manage money for a living do not bother to read the filings. So I read them. Every loan. Every amendment. Every semi-annual PIK disclosure. 2,330 positions. I hand-researched fifty. I found 189 loans where borrowers are paying interest with more debt instead of cash. I found over 50 loans that are not generating enough cash to service their debt at all — carried at par on the books of a fund that has never reported a losing month in 41 months. The fund's Sharpe ratio is 3.75. Bernie Madoff — who was fabricating returns and could pick any number he wanted — ran a 3.5. He got caught because the numbers were too smooth by Markopolos. The greatest quant fund in history, Renaissance Technologies, runs a five or six. Cliffwater is claiming risk-adjusted returns that would be impossible even if you insider-traded with perfect information every single time, because the volatility of the underlying markets would still prevent it. Nobody asked questions. Bloomberg confirmed 14% redemptions 48 hours after I published. S&P cut the fund's outlook to negative this week. Cash on hand fell 76% in six months. This is not an isolated fund. This is the structure. $9.4 trillion in private equity. $3.5 trillion in private credit. They all pay their own valuation agents. The valuation agents decide what the funds are worth. No valuation agent has ever been fired for saying the number was too high. The marks produce the NAV. The NAV produces the fees. The fees come from pensions. The pensions come from firefighters and teachers and nurses in Oregon and California and Illinois who will never read a private placement memorandum in their lives. Wall Street ran out of rich people. The endowments were full. The sovereign wealth funds were tapped. So they went downstream — to 401(k)s, to retirement accounts, to interval funds sold to people who have no idea what they own. 1. Direct the SEC and FSOC to examine Level 3 fair value practices across interval funds and BDCs. 2. Require that valuation agents be independent of the funds they mark. 3. State publicly that the current self-marking regime creates systemic risk. 4. Mandate position-level mark disclosure for every fund that accepts pension capital. There are two ways this ends. It breaks all at once like 2008 and we fix it. Or it rots slowly like Japan: one fund blows up, six weeks of quiet, another one, and nobody connects it for a decade while a generation of retirees gets destroyed. I am not asking anyone to take my word for it. I am asking them to read the filings. If you know someone in the administration, a regulator, or anyone on a legislative committee, please send this to them. One person learned this from a one-bedroom apartment. Your government can too. The will is what is missing.

@chowcollection Agree - Trended down year after year for me

@CrisReed Not sure why but for me orange-pilling peaked in 2017. No one asked anymore questions after that.

Absolutely nothing has changed in five years 😭

@Badie912 @dgt10011 @givepad

@CrisReed @dgt10011 @givepad My style is just buy and hold great assets over time and continue to add. Short term forecasts help inform my cash pile size and options selling strategy.

Hard to know what comes next but if things start to normalize, it looks like Bitcoin has the most tightly coiled spring on the board

@trq212 RIP my OpenClaw

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@Badie912 @dgt10011 @givepad Hint: “Technical analysts” have no clue Been around the block a time or two

@CrisReed @dgt10011 @givepad Other very reputable technical analysts are saying we see a fake quick rally higher then down mid April/May time frame. Obviously I hope they are wrong but the cycle seems to fit their guide.

@ZARkiwi Agree Peak op sec

@CrisReed 12% actually has a nice ring to it. Phycologically 1% per month makes sense and easy for people to digest and calculate in their heads.

11.75% is almost a lock now imo 25bps ^ makes sense

@bobby_grau 🧲

@CrisReed Magnet to 12.000000%

Ryan Gentry launches the 402 Index, a directory of 15,000+ paid API endpoints for AI agents, with hourly health checks to track which providers have the most reliable infrastructure.

@GaryCardone L’s up! Few

In a world filled with of chaos this guy dropped in to remind me of the big picture!

@justinintime00 @dgt10011 @givepad

@CrisReed @dgt10011 @givepad Based

@Skol__Minnesota @IIIDeaton Very sorry Sean. Just prayed.

My divorce is going through. I am so sad😢

@ZynxBTC @scraymondjr Says “management decision” or something that effect on that guidance

@scraymondjr I don't think any of this guidance is 100% set. Just my hunch they will be counting days at par too.

Looks like the $STRC dividend rate will be increased by 25 bps to 11.75% for April. It's been a volatile week across broader markets, and while Stretch has held up well, it's now been 5 days since we last traded at par. No problem. Saylor has already made it clear that he's willing to go as high as 15% if needed.

@newmoneyBTCETH @ZynxBTC It says “management discretion” at the bottom

@ZynxBTC Would love to see it as I have a lot of $STRC. That said, this would not align with the guidance they provided at the last quarterly report. Monthly VWAP over $99 would be a "hold". And we are well over that even with the dip the last couple days.

@hillery_dan @ZynxBTC 12 incoming

@ZynxBTC Pretty remarkable all things consider, if this thing gets up to 12, forget about it, this will be an absolute capital vacuum.

@DonaldJTrumpJr @worldlibertyfi Bitcoin only - over ⚡️

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@saylor @PresidioBitcoin It’s starting to catch on

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@mikewmunz Probably nothing

Rolling 90 day vwap for $STRC is up only and now sits at $99.46

@clinkie44 @saylor 👀

@saylor blink twice if this is the plan