Cris Reed 🎙️Bitcoin Mindset Podcast

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@RadarChat ⚡️

@Excellion @Scavacini777 @AquaBitcoin Aqua is 🔥

@Scavacini777 @AquaBitcoin 🧡

My daughter gets paid in Bitcoin for chores, baby sitting, dishes, laundry etc... And it will be a great lesson for her, why? Because she'll watch fiat slowly d!e, and Btc 4x & 7x this coming decade, So instead of holding dying fiat and save up $5,000 She'll hold Btc and end up having 35-40k as a 16-17 year old!!

Shareholders and Bitcoiners alike should actually *rejoice* that this is happening. It has major benefits in 1) Tax loss harvesting, 2) Convincing ratings agencies that the asset is liquid and salable (despite the long-tailed nature of the "liabilities") $MSTR

@GrantCardone Fiat over Bitcoin is for people that don’t understand money

Cash is for people who don’t understand money.

@BTCBreadMan Rekt

FINALLY got my first jury duty summons. Hell yeah!

No wonder a lot of wrestlers (“real wrestlers” scholastic / freestyle) are bitcoiners. We’re psychopaths and love pain.

@Vikingobitcoin9 Same for me 9 months - a lot of us are on this journey this year for some reason

I think this is the longest I have ever gone without a drink. Not sure of the count but I know for a fact it has been over 6 months. 20+ years of drinking. I almost forgot what it was like to not feel hungover. Blessed.

@Excellion @JAN3Financial 👀

Just a reminder that aside from capital flowing out to AI, there’s absolutely no structural reason for #Bitcoin to be down here. It’s just a self-fulfilling fear induced temporary bear market. Plan accordingly.

@Excellion WS degens have been playing games on MSTR for years. History rhymes. Moves are exaggerated as gamma traders get their face ripped off. 🫡

In the capital markets game, liquidity is king. Even if $MSTR trades range bound forever (it won’t), trading volume gives them a great deal of optionality. Trading volume and liquidity is a prerequisite for options markets, which in turn attract sophisticated institutional capital. There’s a flywheel here that most don’t understand.

@FaithfulDude10 @ChristIsComing5 Prayed

Need a prayer chain started for me Just going through a lot and desperately need a breakthrough Could use many Christian followers and encouragement as well

@chcbearsfan ⚡️

STRC is trading around 93 against a 100 liquidation preference. That gap is a value lever for MSTR common that nothing in the BPS or mNAV conversation will surface Here is the move. Strategy issues common above its CEBE mNAV and uses the proceeds to retire STRC at the discount. Retiring one STRC share takes a 100 claim out of the senior stack for 93 of value. Net senior claims fall by more than the cash spent, so the Bitcoin sitting behind common rises and CEBE goes up. The discount to par accrues straight to common Funding it with common issued above mNAV is what makes it efficient rather than just clever. Issuing above mNAV is already accretive, because the new shares bring in more value than the net Bitcoin they take. So you capture two things in one trade, the premium on the issuance and the discount on the preferred. It is the same premium issuance engine that funds the Bitcoin buying, only pointed at retiring below par preferred instead to capture the discount to market There is a third advantage that could be overlooked. Retiring STRC also removes its cash dividend, which lowers the wrapper fee and stretches the runway. So the discount is not the only gain. You also stop paying to carry the instrument So why does nobody model this? Because the strategy is built to grow the pref stack, not shrink it. STRC face roughly doubled through the Q2 ATM. The machine is a net issuer of prefs, and the value maximizing move at a discount is to be a buyer. The structure creates an accretive lever the strategy is oriented away from using, and CEBE is what lets you see the lever at all Two honest caveats. STRC resets monthly to pull its price back toward 100, so the discount can close on its own before anyone acts on it. Also in a real buyback the actions would lift the price as it accumulated, so 93 is the marginal discount, not the average you would capture None of this is a prediction that they do it. It is what the structure makes possible, and the the potential of the optionality their capital structure affords their team

@PiusSprenger What if they bought in August?

$STRC holders just lost the equivalent of 1.5 years of dividend payments in the last few weeks.

@CorySwan @joaodealmeida_ Apex predator ⚡️

Bitcoin is money.

@_J64_ @asjwebley @satmojoe @4lexanderPetrou @kwasi_stackbtc @freddienew @hillery_dan @BTDenominator @ColeMacro @TimKotzman @Werkman @PunterJeff @chasepalmieri @GrafYves @TylerCompiler @pete_rizzo_ @ThomasPerfumo @MSTR_Today 👀

Daily MSTR signal — Jun 16, 2026 12 videos ft. @asjwebley @satmojoe @4lexanderpetrou @kwasi_stackbtc @freddienew @hillery_dan @btdenominator @colemacro @timkotzman @werkman @punterjeff @crisreed @chasepalmieri @grafyves @tylercompiler @pete_rizzo_ @thomasperfumo @mstr_today @texasol61 @hosseeb @ap_abacus @scottmelker @crypto_noble @bquittem @lukemikic21 @natbrunell @saylor

@DonalDevine Bookmarked

Prediction: Strategy will soon stop paying dividends on $STRC.

There’s 100% rotation from SATA to STRC going on. Gamification of these instruments is a real thing. Arb or quasi-arbing instruments like this is as old as the hills. Scale? Who knows. Traders are going to trade - speculators are going to speculate. Doesn’t mean the instrument is fundamentally impaired long term.

I agree. That’s part of what I meant by “risk-adjusted.” Very well could be reserve related. Point is I think people are rotating to $SATA which is why it is outperforming while $STRC trades down despite $BTC weakness. If MSTR team feel that it is related to opportunistically “borrowing” from the USD reserve then it’s likely a mistake they won’t ever make again. Looks like they are moving to recapitalize it quickly based on last week’s ATM.

$STRC is likely trading down because investors view $SATA as a more attractive risk-adjusted product at the moment (daily dividends and a higher yield), and this is likely being overextended by margin calls on the carry trade.

@PiusSprenger It’s “dead” for the fifth time since last July

Is $STRC dying? The market seems to think so.

@ActuallyClimber 0 clue how long it will take but I like the chances within 4 weeks given the levers they can pull to get it there. That would be a fifth round trip. Been here before albeit somewhat differently scenario. Each time had different variables but ended in the same result.

$STRC holders are supposed to be grateful when price drops, right? That’s the ticket to higher future dividends. As a short term holder I’m really looking forward to the dividend going higher and the attempt to steer the stock closer to par.

@TheOtherParker_ À la “flexing” Lots of players in the game

Jfc, why is $STRC crashing still. Especially with $BTC up, cash reserves at Strategy growing $100M/wk, bi-monthly dividends now in place, and $SATA trading really well. I think someone (or a group) is shorting. We'll call them "Jane Soros" (JS). We won't know for sure until the short interest report comes out around the end of the month, and even then, we may not fully know if (a) the short is closed intra-period and (b) the short used derivatives. $STRC is an especially attractive stock to short, because it has a soft-peg of $100, but that only exists in the minds of the roughly $8B in retail capital holding it. There's no formal mechanism to push the price to $100. Increased dividends help, but it's not a forcing function, the market still needs to bid. Shorts make all of their money when they convince the other side of the market to capitulate. When shorts push the price down, every order that they fill against is a share that they will need to buyback later, likely at a higher price. So, the only way they make money is if they convince the other side to capitulate at the bottom, giving the short the exit liquidity they need to cover (buyback the shares). This is why shorts have a field day in crypto in general, because it's heavily retail dominated and easy to move emotions around (or stop hunt or liquidate). The situation is especially bad with STRC though, because there's the expectation that it'll trade mostly at $100, so even a 5% deviation from that appears catastrophic to the narrative and can cause people to capitulate. Additionally, there are multiple crypto projects, including @apyx_fi , that are built on top, which could create a cascade of selling if people start to bail there. STRC is also the perfect instrument to short because (a) the cost to short is effectively zero if timed correctly and (b) the Strategy ATM provides a cap on losses. So, let's take a look at the JS strategy here: 1. Start to build the short position immediately after ex-dividend on May 15 - an especially good ex-dividend because it occurred on a Friday with lower liquidity, so easier to start to push the price. This would be a slow build though, not a huge short immediately. 2. Continue building the short position over the following weeks - the outright cost to borrow STRC is about 60bps (0.6%). 3. BTC rolling over creates the catalyst/fear condition to really push this, accelerate the selling. 4. Continue selling until June 5, and then start to cover into the close (we saw the June 5 close bounce). Cover more on June 8 as ex-dividend approaches. 5. After the bi-monthly vote passes and ex-dividend approaching doesn't seem to be completely resolving the price back to $100, reaccelerate the selling. 6. Make a risk/return calculation that continuing to short through ex-dividend and paying the ~1% is worth the potential profits of pushing the price down to $90 and covering there as more retail capitulates. 7. Cover before the end of the month when Strategy likely announces a dividend increase and employs additional tools to help push the price back to $100. This risk is always capped at average_short_price - $100, because everyone knows that $100 is the ceiling. With normal shorts, losses could be infinite, so shorting is a very risky game, but that is not the case here. So, if average short price is say $97, and JS can cover at $90, then JS could make $7 on $3 of risk. >100% risk/reward on a 2-4 wk trade. Not too shabby. $SATA is much more insulated from this because (a) the daily dividends make it MUCH more expensive to short, because JS would have to pay the dividends as part of the cost to short every day instead of closing out the position intra-dividend-period. SATA is also much more expensive to short outright, currently 460 bps (4.6%) instead of the 60 bps for STRC. So, the daily short cost for SATA is 1760 bps (17.6%) annualized while the daily short cost for STRC is 60 bps annualized. So, how does Strategy fix this situation? First, move to daily dividends - this meaningfully increases the cost to short. Second, raise the dividend to increase the cost to short. Third, continue rebuilding the cash buffer to shore up confidence and bring retail demand back. Fourth, consider announcing a change in ATM strategy to allow the price to go above $100 - this meaningfully changes the risk calculus for the shorts. The ultimate goal is to create a product that is maximally difficult to manipulate by the shorts. I have full faith that @saylor and team can resolve this situation in time. I am also certain they are keenly aware of these dynamics. So, if you're holding STRC, just have a little patience. Collect the dividends, scoop a little more if you want, and go touch grass. Panic selling is what the shorts want you to do, because that's their only way out.