stonkdaddy@stonk_daddy
Incredibly disingenuous framing of the situation, made to stoke the fears of ignorant investors.
First of all, you don’t get to decide the ratio based on your imagination, the market will give Spacex a value, and has given Tesla a value. A merger ratio is fair based on what the market and millions of investors have determined, not you.
Second, Spacex was worth less than Tesla a year ago because it was undervalued by not being public. Most of the liquidity events were tender offers where Spacex BOUGHT shares from employees. That is not the true value of the company. Now, in an IPO, where the company is selling shares on the open market, you get the real value of a company, or at least what the free market has determined. You cannot turn back time to when it was undervalued and say what Tesla’s ratio should be, that is fantasy land.
Third, Tesla is not undervalued, and you did not fund robotaxi. Tesla trades at 300 PE, it is at its valuation today because of people banking on the robotaxi story, it is not some undiscovered gem. The last capital raise was years ago when the robotaxi idea did not even exist yet. Tesla has been self sufficient and cash flow positive since then and have not needed you to fund anything, if you sold your shares today it would not change a thing in Tesla’s business.
Fourth and maybe most egregiously, this framing that if Tesla investors get 40% of the combined entity (we don’t know what it will be and these numbers are made up) that they will be diluted out of their earnings. As if the 60% of Spacex is just worthless filler. In reality the Starship program is as much if not an even much greater moon shot opportunity than robotaxi. A fully reusable rocket creates a space economy that we haven’t even imagined yet, with a TAM in the trillions. Tesla investors only get diluted if you are forced to be absorbed into some slow moving saturated molasses of a company, when in reality Spacex has just as much upside as Tesla.
Brad says he is a Spacex investor, but clearly his Tesla position is far greater, and he has very little understanding of Spacex business and valuation. He is speaking out of greed, and preying on your fear.
A merger is about combining Elon’s enterprises and cash flow engines to fuel the greatest technological breakthrough in human history - artificial intelligence. OpenAI is funded by its suppliers who will refuse to allow it to fail. Anthropic which is the first to have a breakthrough in generating value has ability to raise capital at will. Google has all of its core businesses funding its AI development. Similarly, for Elon to compete, he needs to combine his companies to form a conglomerate the same way as Google. That’s table stakes. Meanwhile you have tiny investors haggling over minor differences in merger ratios, when he’s trying to play the game of thrones. Missing the forest for the trees.
