2¹³⁶²⁷⁹⁸⁴¹−1

@aleabitoreddit You’ve done more good in the world than you know.

I’m convinced that the people who charge $200 or $2000 just to see their stock picks. Do so just because their ideas aren’t good enough. Otherwise they would just go long on them with their own capital and retire. This is why they get mad when they see others sharing better ideas for free.

@DonaldBestCA A public-facing death certificate is used widely for estate matters, insurance, family records, and administrative purposes. Doctors who provide MAID already report the MAID-death to the Office of the Chief Coroner + document in the medical record.

Ontario doctors are under orders to lie on your death certificate. Not shade the truth. Lie. Here it is. Official. In writing. From the College of Physicians and Surgeons of Ontario. "The illness, disease or disability leading to the request for MAID is to be recorded as the cause of death. The certificate cannot include any reference to MAID or the medications administered." Source: CPSO: Medical Certificates of Death in the MAID Context

@aleabitoreddit Any thoughts on $ENA / Enablence?

So my 10x moonshot $AXTI ended up landing on the moon. If you felt like you missed the rocket: -> $SIVE is my personal favorite next 10x AXT moonshot at today's prices. -> $AAOI already up 4x since I've mentioned it, but I still think it can 4x again from these levels. If you want to play a bit safer: -> $VNP is the Western $AXTI -> $SOI is the $AXTI for silicon photonics/CPO, but it hasn't really ramped up yet. -> $IQE is more binary based on restructuring. -> $TSEM, $LITE, $COHR are the steadier compounders. I haven’t mentioned $VNP (5N Plus) much yet but it’s genuinely one of the most important companies in Western supply chains as the counterbalance to $AXTI. Basically it supplies: indium, germanium, gallium, tellurium, bismuth. Solar cells for LEO. Substrate feedstock for photonics. There's always more opportunities in the market!

@danallison deferred until better at killing “them and not us”

I broke down in tears of relief after reading this. The world is at a fork in the timeline right now and this is clear evidence that we’re heading towards a better future rather than a worse one.

JUST IN - Pentagon used Anthropic’s AI tool Claude in the military operation to capture Nicolas Maduro — WSJ

@aryanjn9 @BreditAnalyst @TMTLongShort Skeptical but it’s interesting, are space/moon safe(r) from being military targets? It almost seems less politically sheltered (bad). Interdependence is probably a stronger survival play.

@BreditAnalyst @TMTLongShort biggest threat is us government once they wake up lol

Whenever Dario says “a trillion in revenue” I want you to replace it with “roughly 15m unemployed voters” in your head. Then assume every democrat politician will have watched this interview before midterms. And ask yourself what is their likely next step. Understand systems. Dario does. That’s why he tries to frame it as “revenue” because his comms person is non-autistic enough to understand his framing the last two times he was on Dwarkesh were a liability.

@billardkarr @isjuustadream speaking of correspondences and trinities ncatlab.org/nlab/show/comp…

@isjuustadream this is a provisional belief of mine, but I think there's some kind of natural correspondence between the trinity and physics: the Father and general relativity / spacetime, the Spirit and quantum mechanics / vacuum fluctuations, and the Son and thermodynamics and biology

Your most schizo take:

@StockSavvyShay MU has never been an early phase supplier in any generation though, doubt this is moving for that

$MU is trading lower on reports Samsung is already approved by $NVDA to supply HBM4 for Rubin and may start production this month. Micron does not ramp HBM4 until mid 2026 which brings fresh worries about losing early share in the highest margin part of memory.

@pfau It’s not accelerating take-off, but it’s a notable milestone in the takeoff curve we’re already in

I see a lot of people talking about this like a "fast takeoff" moment. I think that's a bit of hysteria that will fade. But it does feel a bit like an "eternal September" moment. Like, oh...I guess...this is just what the Internet will be from now on?

@deanwball the largest society (fraction of global compute) will be dedicated to this core issue of policing other societies, it’s the only way.

right so guys we are going to be able to simulate entire mini-societies of digital minds. assume that thousands upon thousands, then eventually trillions upon trillions, of these digital societies will be created. assume one will be created every time you ask 'a chatbot' a hard question--a society or organization devoted entirely to whatever question you had. assume we will be able to model the trajectory of every decision in policy, business, and the military by simulating billions of mini-societies and analyzing the results. all very cool stuff. but this capability (multi-agent "swarms," though "swarm" is the dumbest word imaginable for this) also implies another capability: the ability to create these society simulations entirely undirected by human hand. these simulations will all be fundamentally unpredictable, just as the outputs of a language model are (ultimately this is the simulations' constituent matter). but some will be like this one, radically unpredictable, unbound, like growing a plant or starting a fire. it is unclear which of those things it will be more like on average. it is unclear what uses, exactly, people will find from this. probably we will have to invent all sorts of new ways to put constraints on these mini societies. should these societies of agents be able to procure X cloud service? should they be able to do X unless there is a human who has given authorization and accepted legal liability? and so on and so forth. governments will play a small role in deciding this, but almost certainty the leading role will be played by private corporations. as I wrote on hyperdimensional in 2025: "The law enforcement of the internet will not be the government, because the government has no real sovereignty over the internet. The holder of sovereignty over the internet is the business enterprise, today companies like Apple, Google, Cloudflare, and increasingly, OpenAI and Anthropic. Other private entities will claim sovereignty of their own. The government will continue to pretend to have it, and the companies who actually have it will mostly continue to play along." this is the world you live in now. but there's more. because this is a social coordination technology. people will be able to organically create these organizations/societies together, with one another's agents bounded by shared interest, perhaps bounded by hard and soft constraints, constitutions, etc. and so in the fullness of time billions of these mini-societies will exist, all serving different purposes, some human-directed, some not; some legible, some not. we obviously will have to govern this using a conceptual, political, and technical toolkit which only kind of exists right now. the reason this analysis is easy for me to write is that it became clear this would happen years ago. regardless of whether this particular project goes anywhere interesting, what I've described has been clear for a while. I've just sounded like an insane person whenever I bring it up, because there is no concrete referent I can point to. now I have one, so I can be explicit. when I say that not enough people have emotionally internalized the reality of what is happening, this is what I mean. when I say that it is clearly insane to argue that there needs to be no 'governance' of this capability, this is what I mean, even if it is also true that ~all ai policy proposed to date is bad, largely because it, too, has not internalized the reality of what is happening. as I wrote once before: welcome to the novus ordo seclorum, new order of the ages.

Waiting for Opus 5 to clean up the mess I’ve made with Opus 4.5

@MoonL88537 arxiv.org/abs/2404.15758

never noticed that explicitly but i think its not uncommon. "let me actually check" followed by "..." - did it actually burn tokens that were meaningful and useful introspection? seems impossible (semantically inert?) but this stuff is so weird ruling things out is a bad idea.

@samswoora I’d wager the event horizon / inevitability of the singularity began long ago

Its honestly crazy Donald Trump is the president during the singularity. Like we’re living in a movie. You couldn’t make this up

@AtlasOfCharts @AndyMasley Stable orbit near prograde ISCO (a Kerr SMBH) is at best 10x dilation (10x bitrate for incoming signals), but this is non-interactive compute (an upload signal would take days). How would you use this? I can only imagine it’s better to just 10x your compute locally.

@AndyMasley I've actually thought about this! In the future, we could live in gravity wells in orbit around black holes and have computations take place outside.

Obviously the real reason to put data centers in orbit is that they'd have faster computations from the time dilation of being in a weaker gravitational field. Like a free hardware upgrade.

@emollick It would be an influential project to make an abstracted management skills MD for the Agent Skills standard.

As a business school professor, its striking that a lot of the AI folks on this site, as they increasingly delegate authority to coding agents, are re-encountering the basic problems that underlie management theory and practice. Many delegation problems are old & well-understood!

@AnEmergentI a lot of expressed helplessness despite its poetic exposition even if we fail to morally orient both the people and the technology now, the future has more meaningful choices than the present technological progress itself opens up the space for better sociopolitical projects

This is a really exceptional essay. One of the best I have read, perhaps the best, on the topic of how human power, incentives, and AI progress interact.

@MiTiBennett When it comes to neurosci, bear in mind this decoherence correlates only to loss of *reportable* consciousness, which yields the same issue as trying to interpret what anesthetics tell us about consciousness.

New preprint.

for what the monkey considers business the horse considers play

@roydanroy how will we even evaluate once post is far beyond human capability?

This.

@TradingThomas3 nothing ever happens though

Black Monday happening 😂