MarcGRT

777 posts

MarcGRT

MarcGRT

@GrtMarc

Ex restructuring banker, passion for steaks and investing

Katılım Mart 2021
828 Takip Edilen847 Takipçiler
MarcGRT
MarcGRT@GrtMarc·
@TheDriller11 A 40 year old jack up at a day rate of $132k/day in Nigeria... By itself pretty insane. Don't own enough $BORR ...
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@TheDriller
@TheDriller@TheDriller11·
Bottom of the Jackup market moving up consistently $ADES $VAL $BORR Ready?
@TheDriller tweet media
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MarcGRT
MarcGRT@GrtMarc·
@toooldforfears @AlpacaAurelius Old Jersey milk cows make some of the best (dry aged) steaks in the world. Shocker nobody seems to know... The yellow fat is amazing
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MarcGRT
MarcGRT@GrtMarc·
@ICBarrett Impressive, I am still buying both and averaging up. Think they both have a lot of upside left, even if the SoH magically opens withing the next month. Note $Borr on an EV basis is not even up that crazy much and recent acquisitions could be long term winners
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Baron of Ivy Grottage
Baron of Ivy Grottage@ICBarrett·
I have no idea what this means - but it sounds good!! 😆 Only two new positions I've purchased since start 2025: $BORR (average cost $2.10, bought post cap raise July 2025) and $TGA.L (average cost 360p, bought October 2025). Not sold any of either. And yes, I did say the trades publicly at time. Only problem following me is I trade so infrequently you have to read all the rest of my garbage to find the nuggets!! 💫
FIAT Bear 🐻🇸🇪@abl_trader

Borr drilling $borr Constructive coiling VCP-pattern. 👀

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MarcGRT
MarcGRT@GrtMarc·
@Ultradeep3 @GringoInvesting To me this seems to make perfect sense. UK also wanted NE to divest some assets after the DO acquisition if I remember correctly. Question is which ones. $RIG would probably be ok with the JU fleet, but that would not solve the drillship "dominance"
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Ultradeep
Ultradeep@Ultradeep3·
@GringoInvesting Not binary. IF there are competition issues most likely the deal gets recut ie certain assets move out of the deal (divestitures)
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Ultradeep
Ultradeep@Ultradeep3·
$RIG price action ~100% due to DOJ second request. RIG/VAL merger is not $NE/Diamond
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MarcGRT
MarcGRT@GrtMarc·
@SebKrog I see Valencia and Alicante? Great places to be. What are the others?
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MarcGRT
MarcGRT@GrtMarc·
This is the huge benefit that retail and small funds (< USD 100m) have. The one way to still substantially and continuously outperform large institutional investors.
Lee Roach@leevalueroach

The Warren Buffett who built the foundation of every dollar he is worth today was not the Buffett of the cardigan and the Coca-Cola and the moats-and-brands sermons that fill the annual letters of his later years. The Buffett who actually compounded at 50% a year in the partnership era of the 1950s and 1960s was a 26-year-old in Omaha reading the Moody’s manuals page by page, looking for tiny, illiquid, ignored, unloved, unfashionable companies trading below net current asset value, and buying small positions in dozens of them at the same time, holding them in a partnership structure that almost nobody outside Nebraska knew existed, and waiting for the math to do what the math always does. He bought a windmill company. He bought a streetcar company. He bought a coal company in Philadelphia. He bought a map company. He bought a New England textile mill that turned out to be the worst investment of his career and that, against all his original intentions, became the holding company that bears its name today. He bought net-nets. He bought nanocaps. He bought companies with $4 million market caps and balance sheets full of cash that nobody on Wall Street had bothered to look at since the war. He did not love the businesses. He loved the math. The math was that he was paying 50 to 60 cents on the dollar for liquid assets, and the dollar would, over some unknowable but finite period of time, find its way back to 100 cents, and the difference, compounded across a portfolio of 30 to 40 names, was the entire engine of the early returns that made everything that came later possible. He himself has said, repeatedly, in interviews and in old letters that almost nobody bothers to read, that if he were running small money today he would do the same thing again, in whatever market still offered the same opportunity. The market that offers it today is OTC pink sheets, and the people who are running the original Buffett playbook in those markets in 2026 are, in a precise structural sense, doing the closest thing in modern finance to actually being him in 1956, and almost nobody else is paying attention, because the late Buffett of the cardigan has been so thoroughly canonized that the early Buffett of the manuals has been almost entirely forgotten, which is, as it has always been, the entire reason the opportunity is still there.

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MarcGRT
MarcGRT@GrtMarc·
@anasalhajji Feels like it is a great plan. On the one hand if the US can escort vessels out from friendly countries, great PR. On the other hand if the Iranian navy attacks, a great excuse to say that Iran forced the US in the war (we were attacked). Maybe even article 5 NATO. Impressive
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Anas Alhajji
Anas Alhajji@anasalhajji·
Notice where the US blockade and Navy are positioned (the Red Line). Why the blockade did not take place where the blue line is? (I added the blue lien to the original Bloomberg map) Will the US Navy actually enter the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz — making them easy targets for Iranian ground attacks? Is President Trump hoping for such a strike to justify another war? Or is this just electronic “guidance” of ships from afar? Either way, what about insurance? Who pays if the ships get hit? “we have told these Countries that we will guide their Ships safely out of these restricted Waterways, so that they can freely and ably get on with their business.” President Trump posted on President Trump post on Truth Social post, as the Asian market opened! 😉 Oil prices are virtually flat! Notice that even if it happens, this is not to open the Hormuz Strait, this is just to get the stranded ships of certain countries out! The more I think about the details of the post, the more I think it is about nothing except trying to prevent oil prices form rising further!
Anas Alhajji tweet media
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MarcGRT
MarcGRT@GrtMarc·
Most met producers also produce (quite) some thermal. The table just gives a good but simplistic overview of some of the independent coal players and their willingness to pay dividends. There are so many more important nuances. From quality of the coal, cost structures, end markets, government control and especially in Australia windfall taxes. Also worth to note that some of the best thermal mines are not in this list as they are owned by some of the larger diversified mining groups like Glencore.
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AncientSion
AncientSion@AncientSion·
@GrtMarc i dont think there is a good reason to add met coal producers in that table considering your opening thesis is about "energy importers" ?
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MarcGRT
MarcGRT@GrtMarc·
I am a strong believer in coal. As part of the energy diversification mix net energy importers should want to increase their allocation to both coal and uranium. My favourite stays Thungela. South Africa sounds risky, but last time around, unlike in Australia, no crazy windfall taxes/royalties introduced. Huge FCF was largely given back to shareholders through dividends. Below a little AI generated table. Kinda shocked with the mistakes AI still makes, but at least a nice overview of dividends. *Note the rank doesn't mean anything. Table does not take in account seaborne vs local sales, nor costs structures. Key idea is to see which ones will pay out dividends in good times. Where others like AMR did huge buy backs. $BTU, $TGA.L, $CNR, $EXX.JO, $JSW.WA, $RE4.SI, $YAL.AX, $SMR.AX, $WHC.AX, $ARLP, $AMR, $0975.HK , $1898.HK , $NHC.AX, $1088.HK , $HCC, $LWB.WA
MarcGRT tweet media
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MarcGRT
MarcGRT@GrtMarc·
@hkuppy Great moment to load up more cash and buy like cheap otm call spreads on stuff like Eni and Saipem if oil goes to $200... The SoH is probably also fully mined now considering Iran turned out to have a navy after all🤣
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MarcGRT
MarcGRT@GrtMarc·
Bought quite a bit more of $TGA.L and (bought back) Eni options in the last hour. Feels like today is a good moment to rotate. The options are pure speculation. Thungela more long term. Even if this war is over right now, energy diversification will only become more important
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PerpetualValue
PerpetualValue@PerpetualValue·
I personally don’t believe the war is over, but let’s hope so Hope you didn’t buy oil equities lately based on the advice of @ericnuttall or rappers
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MarcGRT
MarcGRT@GrtMarc·
@Kingfisher6868 @nexaresourcespe Can't find anything yet. Take over would be surprising considering the majority shareholder (I didnt think they wanted to sell).
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MarcGRT
MarcGRT@GrtMarc·
@PerpetualValue @HaircutTungsten I was just looking at this graph. Even more interesting (volatile) if you go back further in time. Also seems like in yahoo finance the EV is calculated wrong? Seems to be a net cash position even + a positive WC Worth to dig in a bit further. Thanks
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PerpetualValue
PerpetualValue@PerpetualValue·
Robert Walters #RWA Q1 NFI down 2% YoY, however, March was up 5% YoY is this the moment to finally buy a recruiter? That's a lot of Net Fee Income (274m FY2025) for a market cap of just 57.5m
PerpetualValue tweet mediaPerpetualValue tweet media
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